Britton - first impressions

[Frobby]

What we saw with Bergy though was a polished pitcher who got on a roll. He is a back ender who pitched well, but well above his head. You have a guy who has a better FB, better slider, more GBs and more K's....

I honestly don't think you will find a scout who will tell you Bergy is or will be a better ML pitcher than Britton. And I agree that scouts aren't always right, but they are certainly right more than any of us and have a much more formulated opinion than any of us.....

Yeah, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. We tend to get very high on whoever our no. 1 prospect happens to be at any given time, and then we get disappointed when they aren't instant successes in the major leagues. The truth is, you never know for sure who will become a good major leaguer, or how quickly they will become a good player at that level. There's every reason to think that Britton is going to be pretty good, but if the poster wants to say, based on what he saw, that Britton will only be "useful," I don't want to bully him out of his opinion just because most scouts feel otherwise.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yeah, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. We tend to get very high on whoever our no. 1 prospect happens to be at any given time, and then we get disappointed when they aren't instant successes in the major leagues. The truth is, you never know for sure who will become a good major leaguer, or how quickly they will become a good player at that level. There's every reason to think that Britton is going to be pretty good, but if the poster wants to say, based on what he saw, that Britton will only be "useful," I don't want to bully him out of his opinion just because most scouts feel otherwise.

One thing I always think though and it is mostly theory of my own rather than a stated fact, but these sinker ball pitchers are tricky to project. It is easy to look at Bergy and think,"Oh well he has average at best stuff across the board, he will probably be a reliever", but you have to remember that he gets a ton of GBs. A lot of those batted balls that would normally be HRs or line drives to fly ball pitchers are ground outs to pitchers like Bergy and Britton. This is why my hopes are so high for Britton because he actually has pretty good command, it looked better than Matusz's when I saw him in that very short inning in the Future's Game. When he misses, he misses low. When he doesn't get GB's, he gets a K more than he gives up a fly ball normally. That is a pretty amazing ability and IMO, this will be the backbone of his success. And Britton also will bring to us the first in the line of nothing but GB inducing SP prospects. After him is Berry, Spoone, Beal, Bundy, Hobgood, Wirsch, Martin, Tolliver, all guys who gets solid to very good percentages of ground balls. There are a chunk of other GB SP prospects in the minors that I am not even mentioning because there are just too many of them to think of right now.....

[Stotle]

Career GB% doesn't explain everything, I agree. Both Bergy and Britton were drafted out of HS and improved tremendously over the years. In Bowie, Britton had a 3.06 GO/AO and Bergy had a 2.40 GO/AO. That is significantly higher and Britton gets more K's(didn't check exact stats) meaning that Britton basically either induced GBs our K's in Bowie and only a few fly outs per game on average....

VAB, I understand you didn't see a plus slider, but based off of track records, Tony's reports and my own personal viewing of Britton in the Future's Game, he has a plus slider......

Here's what BA reports:

10. Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles (Triple-A Norfolk): Scouts would like to see a better changeup; right now, his is below-average. But his turbo sinker, touching 94 mph, is the minors' best (3.68 groundout/airout ratio), and his slider is pushing into above-average territory.

I don't know for certain, but that reads to me as if he has a slider that can be very good but is likely inconsistent. It may be that scouts rate his slider a plus on a given day, but from BA's digging it seams like it isn't a plus overall offering yet. Rather, it's making good progress and still has room to get even better.

That doesn't take away from his impressive progress and showings this year. I, like Frobby, just think there is room for different people to have different takes -- particularly when we are talking about an isolated viewing and not the full catalogue of his season's work.

[QBsILLEST1]

Are "plus" and "above average" that much different? I at times have seen some publications consider a pitch "plus" then later refer to it as "above average". The pitch he used to get the only K of his IP in the Future's Game was a plus slider....

Tony has repeatedly reported a "plus" slider.

So, take what you want from it, but IMO this is splitting hairs. It certainly projects as a plus pitch at the least and maybe it is inconsistent, which would be difficult to tell from limited viewing(my opinion of 1IP).

[allstar1579]

Are "plus" and "above average" that much different? I at times have seen some publications consider a pitch "plus" then later refer to it as "above average". The pitch he used to get the only K of his IP in the Future's Game was a plus slider....

Tony has repeatedly reported a "plus" slider.

So, take what you want from it, but IMO this is splitting hairs. It certainly projects as a plus pitch at the least and maybe it is inconsistent, which would be difficult to tell from limited viewing(my opinion of 1IP).

It's a subjective thing. There is no measurable quantity that will make one pitch plus and another pitch average. It's just impressions from numerous scouts that get compiled into a consensus, so you'll see one place say plus, and another say above average all the time. (Given, guys that do this day in and day out have a really good idea of what is plus and what is not) It can all change based on the number of data points you are using to compare, if you see him once versus 15 times you'd have a different opinion. Depends on how good his stuff was that one day you know?

I talked to a guy that said his only PLUS pitch right now was his sinker, but his slider still has some real potential and is close. I'd guess it's got the potential for plus but needs to be more consistent to be considered that.

[LookinUp]

Please leave this kid in the minors until May of next year. Pretty please with sugar on top.

I really want him to continue working on the slider and change before he's thrown into the fire.

[waroriole]

Please leave this kid in the minors until May of next year. Pretty please with sugar on top.

I really want him to continue working on the slider and change before he's thrown into the fire.

I agree. He obviously needs to work more on the change, as he just began throwing it. Let him get more comfortable with everything, and also let's keep him for that extra year.

[QBsILLEST1]

I agree. He obviously needs to work more on the change, as he just began throwing it. Let him get more comfortable with everything, and also let's keep him for that extra year.

I wouldn't exactly say he just began throwing it. He has had one for a while now, but Matusz helped him with the pitch to improve it. He just began throwing it more in hitters counts to utilize it fully.....

[waroriole]

I wouldn't exactly say he just began throwing it. He has had one for a while now, but Matusz helped him with the pitch to improve it. He just began throwing it more in hitters counts to utilize it fully.....

Well, there is a difference between having one you throw maybe a couple times a game, and having one that you feel comfortable throwing in any spot. He didn't start throwing it alot until this year. I'd like to see him have firm control over the pitch before coming up. That way he'll be able to rely on it when he needs it against big league hitters.

[MDsportsfan15]

Not a good start for Britton today. 4.0 6 4 2 3 3 0 2.05

But if you look closer at the #'s you see he was really hurt by his defense in the 1st innning. 2 errors and a basehit back to the pitcher really contributed to him giving up those 4R with only 2ER. Unfortunatley that got his pitch count up today and he was only able to go 4 innings.

[QBsILLEST1]

Not a good start for Britton today. 4.0 6 4 2 3 3 0 2.05

But if you look closer at the #'s you see he was really hurt by his defense in the 1st innning. 2 errors and a basehit back to the pitcher really contributed to him giving up those 4R with only 2ER. Unfortunatley that got his pitch count up today and he was only able to go 4 innings.

It wasn't good, but it wasn't that bad either IMO. He got some K's, still got a ton of grounders, just didn't dominate. I am beginning to be a part of the audience who thinks we should keep him in AAA for the rest of the year until he is shut down. This is the only season in which he has jumped up a level midseason.