Britton - first impressions

[VAB2110]

I saw Zach Britton pitch for the first time tonight at Harbor Park. He went 7.1 scoreless (left with first and second, 1 out in the 8th) which sounds great but not really as dominant as the numbers might suggest. He did not throw a lot of strikes (although he didn't give up many walks) and his breaking ball was very inconsistent but he still got a ton of ground balls. Probably 4 or 5 balls right back to the box and only one really hard hit liner in the left-center gap. His fastball sat right at 92-94 all night and his breaking ball was mid 80s. He was able to get a couple of K's looking with it. Very few swings and misses. This kid's got a chance to be useful in Baltimore but he's going to have to throw more strikes and get his breaking stuff over more.

[Triple Crown]

So he doesn't have his best stuff, but goes 7.1 innings of shutout ball against a pretty good hitting Columbus team, and this doesn't impress you how?

[WV O's]

I am excited about this guy. His groundball rate has been rediculous.

[VAB2110]

So he doesn't have his best stuff, but goes 7.1 innings of shutout ball against a pretty good hitting Columbus team, and this doesn't impress you how?

It's very good no doubt but throwing only 60 percent strikes isn't going to cut it in the majors. If he's pitching from behind in the count like he was often last night, major league hitters will just take that sinker until he brings it up into the hitting zone. He's pretty similar to Bergesen (albeit a bit harder throwing) who has also been pretty dominant in the minors this year but has been hit around in Baltimore. Look, it's just one game and it's encouraging that he could do what he did last night probably without his best stuff but, despite the numbers, he shouldn't be Baltimore-bound just yet.

[QBsILLEST1]

It's very good no doubt but throwing only 60 percent strikes isn't going to cut it in the majors. If he's pitching from behind in the count like he was often last night, major league hitters will just take that sinker until he brings it up into the hitting zone. He's pretty similar to Bergesen (albeit a bit harder throwing) who has also been pretty dominant in the minors this year but has been hit around in Baltimore. Look, it's just one game and it's encouraging that he could do what he did last night probably without his best stuff but, despite the numbers, he shouldn't be Baltimore-bound just yet.

He is not a lot like Bergesen, Bergy gets what half the GBs that Britton gets, if that. Britton has a plus slider while Bergy has an average slider at best. 2 plus pitches compared to none is quite a big difference. And I don't have time to look up the Go/AO between the 2, but I was thinking Bergy was somewhere around 2:1 while Zach is above 3:1.

He didn't pitch as well as his numbers may suggest, he wasn't getting his stuff over as good as he normally does. Did you notice him missing high or low with his stuff? This is a testament to Britton poise and mound presence that he did so well without his best stuff.

And if you look at the difference between ages at the different levels, that makes a big difference too. Britton IMO does project to have Bergy's polish and command but he is younger and not fully developed or polished at this point, and yet and still he is posting dominant numbers in Norfolk in his 1st stint there......

[birdman57]

So he doesn't have his best stuff, but goes 7.1 innings of shutout ball against a pretty good hitting Columbus team, and this doesn't impress you how?

I agree. I'm laughing at that myself. The term "useful" slayed me. Was it that infamous "scout" we've been obsessing about this week???

[QBsILLEST1]

I agree. I'm laughing at that myself. The term "useful" slayed me. Was it that infamous "scout" we've been obsessing about this week???

LOL..I really did laugh out loud.......

[VAB2110]

He is not a lot like Bergesen, Bergy gets what half the GBs that Britton gets, if that. Britton has a plus slider while Bergy has an average slider at best. 2 plus pitches compared to none is quite a big difference. And I don't have time to look up the Go/AO between the 2, but I was thinking Bergy was somewhere around 2:1 while Zach is above 3:1.

He didn't pitch as well as his numbers may suggest, he wasn't getting his stuff over as good as he normally does. Did you notice him missing high or low with his stuff? This is a testament to Britton poise and mound presence that he did so well without his best stuff.

And if you look at the difference between ages at the different levels, that makes a big difference too. Britton IMO does project to have Bergy's polish and command but he is younger and not fully developed or polished at this point, and yet and still he is posting dominant numbers in Norfolk in his 1st stint there......

I don't think Britton is getting many more ground balls than Bergesen was in the minors and I didn't see any plus slider but, like I said, it was just one game. All I'm saying is pitching the way he did last night, despite the numbers, won't play well in the majors. He's still got things to work on.

[rlc]

Bergy gets what half the GBs that Britton gets, if that.

Bergesen's career GB% in the minors is 52.6%. I think that even you must concede that no one, not even a highly touted Oriole prospect, can have a GB% of over 100%.

I don't think Britton is getting many more ground balls than Bergesen was in the minors

Britton's career GB% is 63.5%, and that number is actually deceptively low - his 36 innings back at Bluefield pull his career number below what it's been in every season since. He gets significantly more grounders than Bergesen.

[QBsILLEST1]

Bergesen's career GB% in the minors is 52.6%. I think that even you must concede that no one, not even a highly touted Oriole prospect, can have a GB% of over 100%.

Britton's career GB% is 63.5%, and that number is actually deceptively low - his 36 innings back at Bluefield pull his career number below what it's been in every season since. He gets significantly more grounders than Bergesen.

Career GB% doesn't explain everything, I agree. Both Bergy and Britton were drafted out of HS and improved tremendously over the years. In Bowie, Britton had a 3.06 GO/AO and Bergy had a 2.40 GO/AO. That is significantly higher and Britton gets more K's(didn't check exact stats) meaning that Britton basically either induced GBs our K's in Bowie and only a few fly outs per game on average....

VAB, I understand you didn't see a plus slider, but based off of track records, Tony's reports and my own personal viewing of Britton in the Future's Game, he has a plus slider......

[Frobby]

It's very good no doubt but throwing only 60 percent strikes isn't going to cut it in the majors.

Major league pitchers throw like 63% strikes. Britton threw 60% in the game you saw. It doesn't seem that worrisome to me. I agree he will want to pitch from ahead in the count, not behind. But I find it pretty hard to fault a guy making his 3rd AAA start, who goes 7.1 IP allowing 5 hits, 1 BB, 0 R and gets 15 ground ball outs to 4 fly outs.

[Tony-OH]

Everyone is allowed an option based off what they see, but I would seriously disagree with anyone who thinks Britton will only be "useful" and is similar to Bergesen.

The only thing similar between the two is they both throw a sinker, although Britton's is at 92-94 and Bergesen's is at 89-92.

Britton's stats show he was on his game for the most part, even if he was possibly without his best stuff (judging by the OPs assessment).

[QBsILLEST1]

Everyone is allowed an option based off what they see, but I would seriously disagree with anyone who thinks Britton will only be "useful" and is similar to Bergesen.

The only thing similar between the two is they both throw a sinker, although Britton's is at 92-94 and Bergesen's is at 89-92.

Britton's stats show he was on his game for the most part, even if he was possibly without his best stuff (judging by the OPs assessment).

So would pretty much anyone in the scouting community.....

[Frobby]

So would pretty much anyone in the scouting community.....

It's not like the scouts are never wrong. There are plenty of guys who were highly touted in AA or AAA who never became good major league pitchers. And while I expect them to do it, I'm still waiting for Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta to be anywhere near as consistent as Bergesen was for us last year.

[QBsILLEST1]

It's not like the scouts are never wrong. There are plenty of guys who were highly touted in AA or AAA who never became good major league pitchers. And while I expect them to do it, I'm still waiting for Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta to be anywhere near as consistent as Bergesen was for us last year.

What we saw with Bergy though was a polished pitcher who got on a roll. He is a back ender who pitched well, but well above his head. You have a guy who has a better FB, better slider, more GBs and more K's....

I honestly don't think you will find a scout who will tell you Bergy is or will be a better ML pitcher than Britton. And I agree that scouts aren't always right, but they are certainly right more than any of us and have a much more formulated opinion than any of us.....