Hernandez and Mickolio Watch

[Sports Guy]

David came in with the base loaded in the 7th inning and surrended only 1 run due to a sac fly to CF, k'd Stanton and then a FO to LF. Then came in the 8th to strike out 2 and then was replaced. Nice job DH!! Also D'Back fans aren't really missing Reynolds!

Just one of many.

Give me Reynolds over DH everyday of the week....BTW, why isn't Zona using DH as a starter?

[Tony-OH]

I see we are quick to respond when David has a hiccup, but he bounced back yesterday with a 1-2-3 9th inning to record his 2nd save of the year. He also had a top 5 web gem(ESPN).

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=15713987&topic_id&c_id=mlb&tcid=fb_video_15713987

Why are you so intent on trying to make it look like the Orioles and the posters on OH didn't like David Hernandez? The upside of Reynolds required the Orioles to trade something of value and Hernandez was that nugget. He's a good relief pitcher and guy we'd all love to have in our pen, but at the same time, he was worth giving up for the potential that Reynolds brings. Reynolds still has a pretty good offensive upside here so it's not like he's been totally terrible. I wish DH nothing but the best out in AZ but it's not going to change the fact that he was worth giving up for the potential of Reynolds.

[Malike]

David came in with the base loaded in the 7th inning and surrended only 1 run due to a sac fly to CF, k'd Stanton and then a FO to LF. Then came in the 8th to strike out 2 and then was replaced. Nice job DH!! Also D'Back fans aren't really missing Reynolds!

Just one of many.

You are making it out as if we traded Mariano Rivera for Mark Reynolds. If you get the chance to make that trade again, you do it every time. No slight to David, I was a fan and I'm glad he's doing okay out there, but Reynolds > Hernandez.

[Enjoy Terror]

Baltimore had some extra relief pitching and no third baseman. Arizona had an awful bullpen (even by Baltimore standards) and... Mark Reynolds. It was mutually beneficial. I'd make the trade again tomorrow.

[Frobby]

You are making it out as if we traded Mariano Rivera for Mark Reynolds. If you get the chance to make that trade again, you do it every time. No slight to David, I was a fan and I'm glad he's doing okay out there, but Reynolds > Hernandez.

Reynolds, 2011 to date: 0.4 WAR

Hernandez, 2011 to date: 0.8 WAR

I favored the trade, and I still would do it based on my belief that Reynolds' numbers will improve from here. But to date, Reynolds < Hernandez.

[Enjoy Terror]

Reynolds, 2011 to date: 0.4 WAR

Hernandez, 2011 to date: 0.8 WAR

I favored the trade, and I still would do it based on my belief that Reynolds' numbers will improve from here. But to date, Reynolds < Hernandez.

I'm curious though, is Reynolds < Hernandez a complete equation? Shouldn't it be Reynolds and his replacement compared to Hernandez and his replacement?

For example, had we held onto Hernandez and put Josh Bell at third instead, does the combined WAR of David and Josh (or other 3B) outweigh Reynolds and the relief pitcher we replaced DH with?

[glenn__davis]

Reynolds, 2011 to date: 0.4 WAR

Hernandez, 2011 to date: 0.8 WAR

I favored the trade, and I still would do it based on my belief that Reynolds' numbers will improve from here. But to date, Reynolds < Hernandez.

Have we really reached the point where we're going to say that one player has been decidedly better than the other because his WAR is 0.4 higher?

[Frobby]

Have we really reached the point where we're going to say that one player has been decidedly better than the other because his WAR is 0.4 higher?

I don't really have a better way to compare a relief pitcher to a third baseman.

[glenn__davis]

I don't really have a better way to compare a relief pitcher to a third baseman.

I don't either, but then with all due respect, why make the statement?

I don't necessarily disagree with you based on each players' entire body of work, I just think it's a major oversimplification to say one player is better due to a 0.4 WAR difference.

Either way, glad to see DH doing pretty well out there. I think we all thought he'd be pretty good out of the bullpen. So count me in as one who hated to lose him but would make the trade again.

[sangar]

I don't either, but then with all due respect, why make the statement?

I don't necessarily disagree with you based on each players' entire body of work, I just think it's a major oversimplification to say one player is better due to a 0.4 WAR difference.

Either way, glad to see DH doing pretty well out there. I think we all thought he'd be pretty good out of the bullpen. So count me in as one who hated to lose him but would make the trade again.

Another way to say it is he has been twice as valuable to this date.

Just because it is a small number does not invalidate it as a measurement tool.

[glenn__davis]

Another way to say it is he has been twice as valuable to this date.

Just because it is a small number does not invalidate it as a measurement tool.

I'm not saying it's invalid. I think WAR can certainly be a valuable statistic at times. And if you want to use that as one piece of evidence that DH has been better than Reynolds, I'm fine with that. But to use that one metric, and to base your entire conclusion of the players' performances on it, is really oversimplifying things, IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't either, but then with all due respect, why make the statement?

I don't necessarily disagree with you based on each players' entire body of work, I just think it's a major oversimplification to say one player is better due to a 0.4 WAR difference.

Either way, glad to see DH doing pretty well out there. I think we all thought he'd be pretty good out of the bullpen. So count me in as one who hated to lose him but would make the trade again.

Would you rather say that:

Reynolds has been about 4 runs better than an average AL hitter, seven runs worse than an average fielding third baseman (in context), and there's a nine run gap between replacement and average over Reynolds' PAs, while...

Hernandez has been about seven runs better than a replacement-level pitcher given the offensive context he's played in, so...

If you add that all up Hernandez has been maybe 4 or 5 runs better than Reynolds, and with a win worth about 10 additional runs he's been about half a win better.

WAR just adds all that stuff up and makes it comprehensible. For something like this you don't always want to raise the pig, butcher the pig, grind up the pig, stuff the pig parts in a casing... you just want a sausage.

[Singleton]

I'm curious though, is Reynolds < Hernandez a complete equation? Shouldn't it be Reynolds and his replacement compared to Hernandez and his replacement?

For example, had we held onto Hernandez and put Josh Bell at third instead, does the combined WAR of David and Josh (or other 3B) outweigh Reynolds and the relief pitcher we replaced DH with?

If you're going there don't you have to factor in how much more we're paying for Reynolds?

Lets not go there.

[glenn__davis]

Would you rather say that:

Reynolds has been about 4 runs better than an average AL hitter, seven runs worse than an average fielding third baseman (in context), and there's a nine run gap between replacement and average over Reynolds' PAs, while...

Hernandez has been about seven runs better than a replacement-level pitcher given the offensive context he's played in, so...

If you add that all up Hernandez has been maybe 4 or 5 runs better than Reynolds, and with a win worth about 10 additional runs he's been about half a win better.

I have no problem saying that:

From a strictly quantitative standpoint, David Hernandez has been about 4 or 5 runs better than Mark Reynolds (I'm trusting your numbers there, Drungo).

But we all know that baseball is not strictly quantitative. Again, not trying to make this a debate on the merit of stats or WAR, I thnk both are valuable, I just think it takes an awful lot of faith in the stat to draw the conclusion that Frobby did (again, obviously no offense meant to Frobby).

[DrungoHazewood]

I have no problem saying that:

From a strictly quantitative standpoint, David Hernandez has been about 4 or 5 runs better than Mark Reynolds (I'm trusting your numbers there, Drungo).

But we all know that baseball is not strictly quantitative. Again, not trying to make this a debate on the merit of stats or WAR, I thnk both are valuable, I just think it takes an awful lot of faith in the stat to draw the conclusion that Frobby did (again, obviously no offense meant to Frobby).

I haven't heard any non-quantitative reasons to believe Hernandez hasn't been a little bit better than Reynolds.

In any case, most of the time you see non-quantitative arguments brought into baseball it's a case of the person in question not believing or liking the quantified results. I've done it - I argued that Izturis might be worth a roster spot despite his quantifiable deficiencies as a player because of his role as a part-time coach to the Spanish speakers on the team. But most of the time it's just convienent way to say you like Player A better than Player B but can't prove Player A is better. The vast majority of the time a player really is a sum of all the things you can count.