BP: Wieters one of the Most Disappointing Prospects of All Time

[flashjordnk]

So, the question I have is this....Did everyone overhype Wieters and not pay attention to his big time question marks OR is this a case of the Orioles developing a hitter poorly, as they seem to do?

In this scenario do we have to just choose a or b?

I wonder if it's something in the middle. But it's hard to argue that the O's did anything wrong with his time as MiLBer in terms of development. When a guy is simply just mashing like this, who knows?

Confidence, challenging coaching at the MLB level as opposed to MiLB development might also play a role. And maybe those are the same things you're saying just reworded a bit. I'll be interested to see him this year under a full year of Buck. They seem to be working on boosting his confidence and telling him how important he is to the team.

If he wasn't an athlete I still don't see how he had the success he did in the minors...and I'm curious how that ability to pick up on whatever he was doing didn't translate once he got here. I mean even MiLB early on projected his bat speed as good. And according to this profile he actually hit better against lefties in the minors. Why the flip?

source

[SilentJames]

To answer SG's post:

Yes it is too early. He is going into his third season for God's sake. He has been disappointing yes no doubt but calling him one of the biggest busts of all time is a BIT much. I mean come on, drafted in 2007, no one else on that list was drafted fewer than 10 years ago.

Was he over-hyped, yes yes he was. I mean come on: "swith-hitting Jesus" Matt Wieters Facts. He was terribly over-hyped. But I really don't blame the fans for that, that is what fans do.

I also think writing him off as an occaisional all-star is a bit pre-mature as well. Wieters can still be the franchise player we all hoped he will be. It is his third year in the league. It would be a little early to be making proclamations about anyone's career.

Now this IS an important year for him however, I said that at Fanfest. After this year we will have a better idea what we can expect from him.

[El Gordo]

Wieters 226 G .721 OPS

Gary Carter. 235 G .708 OPS

Ted Simmons 202 G .728 OPS

[MurphDogg]

"The backstop is heading into his age-25 season." That is one way to put it, another is to say that he is a 24-year-old heading into his second full season who is already statistically better than league-average. Both statements are accurate and paint wildly different pictures. If he was 6 weeks younger he would be "heading into his age-24 season". Then there is the end-quote which just epitomizes the overreaction an instant gratification that is required of all writing on the internet, "stardom now seems spectacularly unlikely". Not uncertain, not unlikely, spectacularly unlikely. Thanks for the analysis BP.

[Sports Guy]

In this scenario do we have to just choose a or b?

I wonder if it's something in the middle. But it's hard to argue that the O's did anything wrong with his time as MiLBer in terms of development. When a guy is simply just mashing like this, who knows?

Confidence, challenging coaching at the MLB level as opposed to MiLB development might also play a role. And maybe those are the same things you're saying just reworded a bit. I'll be interested to see him this year under a full year of Buck. They seem to be working on boosting his confidence and telling him how important he is to the team.

If he wasn't an athlete I still don't see how he had the success he did in the minors...and I'm curious how that ability to pick up on whatever he was doing didn't translate once he got here. I mean even MiLB early on projected his bat speed as good. And according to this profile he actually hit better against lefties in the minors. Why the flip?

source

You know what, there is another option...That Wieters just doesn't work that hard to improve himself.

Now, we have heard differently on this but I guess that is also possible. We heard a quote from an Oriole HOFer who sees him all the time(coughPalmercough) that he doesn't feel he is strong enough. Is Wieters busting his butt in the gym?

Also, in terms of the Orioles developing him...He was great in his first MiL season but had the Orioles really gotten a hold of him yet?

He saw a big dropoff in AAA, after he had been in the system for a while.

I am not neccassarily placing the blame on the Orioles...I am just saying that they haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire in terms of developing hitters, especially power hitters, over the last 20+ years. So, I feel it is an option that is at least worth exploring and thinking about.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, has Brady done any work with Wieters?

I would know what he thinks.

[Can_of_corn]

BTW, has Brady done any work with Wieters?

I would know what he thinks.

Not that I have heard of but Brady's client list isn't common knowledge, or exclusively Orioles.

[SilentJames]

You know what, there is another option...That Wieters just doesn't work that hard to improve himself.

Now, we have heard differently on this but I guess that is also possible.

Also, in terms of the Orioles developing him...He was great in his first MiL season but had the Orioles really gotten a hold of him yet?

He saw a big dropoff in AAA, after he had been in the system for a while.

I am not neccassarily placing the blame on the Orioles...I am just saying that they haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire in terms of developing hitters, especially power hitters, over the last 20+ years. So, I feel it is an option that is at least worth exploring and thinking about.

Didn't he also get injured in AAA though? I remember him pulling a hammy at the start of his AAA campaign and then coming on really strong.

You're right it is an option worth exploring. But that is probably also a function of crappy scouting and drafts over that time too.

I mean, between Cal and Roberts not a single everyday POSITION PLAYER let a lone slugger came out of the Orioles farm system. What was going on there through a couple regimes is an interesting question to ask.

[Frobby]

I still think Wieters will become a guy who regularly puts up an .800+ OPS, while playing Gold Glove defense. Maybe this year, maybe next. He took a step back offensively last year, which surprised me, but I still have confidence in him.

[Sports Guy]

Didn't he also get injured in AAA though? I remember him pulling a hammy at the start of his AAA campaign and then coming on really strong.

You're right it is an option worth exploring. But that is probably also a function of crappy scouting and drafts over that time too.

I mean, between Cal and Roberts not a single everyday POSITION PLAYER let a lone slugger came out of the Orioles farm system. What was going on there through a couple regimes is an interesting question to ask.

Sure it is...Its a combo of everything.

But Wieters shouldn't be a function of poor scouting either.

[Dipper9]

I still think Wieters will become a guy who regularly puts up an .800+ OPS, while playing Gold Glove defense. Maybe this year, maybe next. He took a step back offensively last year, which surprised me, but I still have confidence in him.

I am curious to see what he does in a lineup that doesn't include Lugo, Izzy, and Atkins on a regular basis. It might not mean anything, but he may have been pressing due to the overall terribleness of the lineup. Let's see how he does in a less stressful 7 or 8 spot in a lineup that should mash.

Now, if he continues to "not live up to the hype" after this season, there will be no excuses.

[MurphDogg]

I mean, between Cal and Roberts not a single everyday POSITION PLAYER let a lone slugger came out of the Orioles farm system.

Steve Finley?

[Frobby]

Now, if he continues to "not live up to the hype" after this season, there will be no excuses.

There is a lot of room between the .695 he put up last year and the .900+ that PECOTA foresaw two years ago. He could improve a ton and still not "live up to the hype." For me, if he got into the high .700's this year I'd be satisfied for 2011.

[MurphDogg]

I am curious to see what he does in a lineup that doesn't include Lugo, Izzy, and Atkins on a regular basis. It might not mean anything, but he may have been pressing due to the overall terribleness of the lineup. Let's see how he does in a less stressful 7 or 8 spot in a lineup that should mash.

Now, if he continues to "not live up to the hype" after this season, there will be no excuses.

I agree with this. While in a vacuum, I support the notion that lineup protection is not particularly meaningful, I can see how it might affect an individual player, especially a young player.

To me the article is a year or two too early. You can't write a player off until they are at least 26, and even then you wind up missing on a couple.

[Tony-OH]

You know what, there is another option...That Wieters just doesn't work that hard to improve himself.

Now, we have heard differently on this but I guess that is also possible. We heard a quote from an Oriole HOFer who sees him all the time(coughPalmercough) that he doesn't feel he is strong enough. Is Wieters busting his butt in the gym?

Also, in terms of the Orioles developing him...He was great in his first MiL season but had the Orioles really gotten a hold of him yet?

He saw a big dropoff in AAA, after he had been in the system for a while.

I am not neccassarily placing the blame on the Orioles...I am just saying that they haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire in terms of developing hitters, especially power hitters, over the last 20+ years. So, I feel it is an option that is at least worth exploring and thinking about.

I certainly won't argue with the lack of development with hitting prospects over the years, but from everything I heard, the Orioles didn't do much of anything with Wieters in the minors. He was under the, "If it's not broke, don't try and fix it category" while coming up and no one, not a single person I talked to ever doubted his bat or bat speed while he was in the minors.

Now I will admit that I have not been impressed with his bat speed since he arrived in the majors. We haven't seen a lot of hard pulled line drives or long home runs and I really haven't seen him turn on too many good fastballs. At the same time, Wieters had never failed before last year so I'm sure this was a turning point for him. Everything we heard so far is that Matt has worked very hard this off season and we'll see if that translates to batter bat speed and more pop.

While I'll admit he was a huge disappointment last year, and his right-handed hitting is a concern, his second half .730 OPS (110 tOPS+) gives me hope that he can perform better when he's not ridden so hard like he was during the first half and as he learns the pitchers.

As a big catcher, Wieters is going to need his days off from behind the plate which makes carrying a good backup catcher very important in my opinion. In the end, he might not be on his way to the HoF, but it's way too early to consider him any kind of bust.