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Fielder to O's "just isn't going to happen"

.500_OR_BETTER

By .500_OR_BETTER
in Orioles Talk

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I think the Angels are getting an A-Rod type player (downside of career)

Whoever signs Fielder is getting a Ryan Howard type deal (going into prime years of career)

The downside of inner-circle HOFer careers are probably as good a risk as the early decline phase of a very good player.

I wouldn't use the Ryan Howard deal as an example of a good contract to be emulated. From my perspective that has the potential to be one of the ugliest contracts in free agent history. From 27-31 Howard was worth 75% of Prince Fielder's last five years, is missing 2012 because of injury, and will be paid $125M for his age 33-36 seasons. My guess is that he'll be worth about $40M over his contract.

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clapdiddy Hangout Grand Counsel

clapdiddy

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The downside of inner-circle HOFer careers are probably as good a risk as the early decline phase of a very good player.

I wouldn't use the Ryan Howard deal as an example of a good contract to be emulated. From my perspective that has the potential to be one of the ugliest contracts in free agent history. From 27-31 Howard was worth 75% of Prince Fielder's last five years, is missing 2012 because of injury, and will be paid $125M for his age 33-36 seasons. My guess is that he'll be worth about $40M over his contract.

I was thinking the same thing when that contract was announced. Even though Philly looks like they may be a pretty good team over the next few seasons, this contract may come back to bite them.

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CSB Jack Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

CSB Jack

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Over the last five years Pujols has been worth about 40 wins, or about 75% of a Hall of Fame career. Or 100% of a Jim Rice career.

Over the last five years Fielder has been worth about 20 wins.

Pujols is older, but he's a MUCH better player. Pujols is Jimmy Foxx or Lou Gehrig. Fielder is Boog Powell or Orlando Cepeda. If you put a gun to my head and told me I had to sign one of these guys to a 10/200 deal it would take me half a second to take Pujols and never look back.

I was thinking about this when I saw an article saying that Fielder wants something along the lines of Pujols' deal. The thing is, even though Fielder is four years younger, he's not the same player as Pujols. It's not even close. No way would I offer Fielder a guaranteed ten year deal.

I compared Fielder to other top 1B deals recently - Teixeira, Gonzalez, Pujols - and to A-Rod, just for comparison. A-Rod got stupid money from Texas because he was probably the best player in the game and a free agent at age 24, a freak occurrence, coupled with an owner lacking in sound judgment. His current deal with the Yankees is just one of those NYY things that shows the Yankees can afford to take chances on those kinds of deals and not get hysterical about the player missing a quarter of his teams games over the past three seasons.

Teixeira was a better player at the time he signed his deal than is Fielder, and has been in decline since, so that offers a reasonable value comparison. Gonzalez was a more valuable player the four years before he signed his deal with Boston than Fielder has been the past four years (19.0 vs. 16.1 rWAR), and signed a 7/148 deal, slated to kick in at age 30. So he's a little older, compensating a little for the fact that he's also a better player, especially factoring in his defense.

I look at this (and I imagine GMs do also) and decide there's no way Fielder is worth that kind of contract. I don't follow this as closely as most of the guys on here probably do, but a quick scan of news on Fielder offers shows that there aren't any, and that most clubs are thinking more in terms of 6 years than ten. I would consider 7/140 to be a very aggressive offer to Fielder, and one that I would make only as an AL club that has the DH to fall back on.

I am curious, what would you offer if you were trying to be a financially prudent GM who was also looking to win both in the short term and over the next several years? That means no "stupid" deals, but not lowballing in the range of 5/75 either. Unless you don't think 5/75 is a lowball offer. Feel free to point me to a thread that already covers this in excruciating detail.

I guess the bottom line point is that, while I still don't expect to see Fielder with the Orioles, I can envision a scenario where it at least becomes plausible. That would be if there is nobody out there who comes close to offering what Boras is talking about and the offers start coming in for 6/110 or something like that.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I think Fielder's starting number is the 120M the Brewers already indicated they'd go to if pressed. A 6/125 deal is probably the minimum he'd sign for on a good team if no crazy bidder gets involved. But for the O's it will take considerably more, probably at least 7/150. Possibly closer to 200.

Of course it's all conjecture. But I'm quite confident a smart GM or owner wouldn't go near the deal that would put Fielder in Orange and Black.

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atomic Hangout Grand Counsel

atomic

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I think Fielder's starting number is the 120M the Brewers already indicated they'd go to if pressed. A 6/125 deal is probably the minimum he'd sign for on a good team if no crazy bidder gets involved. But for the O's it will take considerably more, probably at least 7/150. Possibly closer to 200.

Of course it's all conjecture. But I'm quite confident a smart GM or owner wouldn't go near the deal that would put Fielder in Orange and Black.

Yeah it would be really stupid to get a marquee first baseman signed for the next 7 years.

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Nigel Tufnel Perennial All-Star

Nigel Tufnel

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Yeah Chris Davis looks like a MUCH better option. Or Brandon Snyder. Or Mark Reynolds.

There's not much doubt that it would be great to have Fielder on the team for the next 3 years or so. But even with him, they won't contend in 2012, and then there are the final 3-4 years of his contract to worry about. I can definitely understand the "let's take the 3 great years and worry about 2015 when it happens" mindset, though.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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There's not much doubt that it would be great to have Fielder on the team for the next 3 years or so. But even with him, they won't contend in 2012, and then there are the final 3-4 years of his contract to worry about.

So what about 2013? Or 2014 for that matter...

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Dipper9 Hangout Grand Counsel

Dipper9

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Yeah Chris Davis looks like a MUCH better option. Or Brandon Snyder. Or Mark Reynolds.

Look at Roy acting like one of us. Nice!

That said, you know even with Fielder this team is a 4th place team AT BEST, and that's only if the young guns all start to get their act together. I would have supported a Fielder signing if we were in all in mode, which would have included much more than what we've done, but just signing him because we can is a dumb move.

Now, if by some act of God he signed here, I wouldn't be disappointed, but this is one time where I can clearly back the Orioles decision not to pay that kind of money for a severely overweight player who might only produce solidly for another couple to three years.

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Nigel Tufnel Perennial All-Star

Nigel Tufnel

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So what about 2013? Or 2014 for that matter...

Right, those are year where maybe you can contend if everything breaks right, and Fielder would definitely help. But maybe everything doesn't break right. And even if it does, how much are you willing to overpay Fielder (which will limit other potential moves) just in case he's the missing puzzle piece?

I'd give Fielder 6/$120 without blinking, even though that's probably overpaying for his actual worth. Above that, I start to get really nervous.

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

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Yeah Chris Davis looks like a MUCH better option. Or Brandon Snyder. Or Mark Reynolds.

I've read enough of atomic's posts to know he doesn't think about this rationally, but I kind of thought you would be reasonable enough to conclude that a 7/150+ contract for Fielder would be a bad idea.

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