Jorge Soler finally available

[Pickles]

Compared to a long term contract with an already great player when it is a given that A-Rod or Pujols will be completely worthless.in their final season worth 20+ million, I would prefer the risk of no production for 30 million spread over nine years. If he is a 1 WAR player (worse than an average starter) over years 3-9 of the contract he easily outperforms its value. If he is half the player that the scouts think he will be, this contract will be compared to Longoria's in five years.

Silly me. I thought the whole point of amateur accusitions were to pay WELL BELOW the FA rate for wins. Thus, comparing him to what established players got, or even a guy like Longoria who'd already reached the MLs, isn't accurate.

First round picks that get a 4-7 million dollar bonus and take three years to reach the majors can easily exceed 30 million over their six cost-controlled years. If Soler reaches the Majors faster than the average first round pick, the Cubs get essentially a free season out of him.

And if he never reaches the majors? A very signifigant chance.

[Can_of_corn]

Whatever he earns under the CBA. This kid is getting guaranteed money that he regardless of whether he earns it or not.

By the time the O's pay Jones 30 million dollars he'll have given them, depending on how which WAR numbers you use, and giving mid-range projections for the rest of this season and next, in the neighborhood of 20 wins.

If you are confident that the kid can play this deal could end up being cheaper then what he would have made in 3-4 trips to arbitration.

[LookinUp]

If you are confident that the kid can play this deal could end up being cheaper then what he would have made in 3-4 trips to arbitration.

But what are the probabilities? I suspect none of us know the answer, but maybe the Cubs feel like they have a good idea? If so, this is more of an informed risk than a reckless risk, but it's a risk nevertheless.

[Can_of_corn]

Silly me. I thought the whole point of amateur accusitions were to pay WELL BELOW the FA rate for wins. Thus, comparing him to what established players got, or even a guy like Longoria who'd already reached the MLs, isn't accurate.

And if he never reaches the majors? A very signifigant chance.

Of course there is risk. plenty of risk in normal FA signings as well. How many wins worth of production are the Red Sox likely to get out of the first 30 million of Crawford's deal?

I think very significant is an exaggeration. I will be surprised if he can't at the very least eek out a short career as a 1-2 WAR fourth outfielder.

[Pickles]

Of course there is risk. plenty of risk in normal FA signings as well. How many wins worth of production are the Red Sox likely to get out of the first 30 million of Crawford's deal?

The Red Sox are about to get virtually nothing from Crawford, and the risk w him was a hell of a lot lower than the risk w this kid.

I think very significant is an exaggeration.

Well, if he's a "top ten pick" in the most recent draft, how many top ten picks, make the majors? And are worth 30 mil when they do? A large portion do not. This guy isn't Harper; he's a lot more like Fernando Martinez. How's he doing nowadays?

I will be surprised if he can't at the very least eek out a short career as a 1-2 WAR fourth outfielder.

Then the Cubs will have drastically overpaid him.

[Pickles]

If you are confident that the kid can play this deal could end up being cheaper then what he would have made in 3-4 trips to arbitration.

And how confident can you be in a 20 year old kid from Cuba? I say not 30 million worth.

[Can_of_corn]

And how confident can you be in a 20 year old kid from Cuba? I say not 30 million worth.

It isn't my money but this is a talent that doesn't cost a draft pick. The Cubs have the money to spend. If he just ends up as "good" then the Cubs come out in find shape. If he bombs it was still not as bad as the Soriano deal.

[Pickles]

It isn't my money but this is a talent that doesn't cost a draft pick. The Cubs have the money to spend. If he just ends up as "good" then the Cubs come out in find shape. If he bombs it was still not as bad as the Soriano deal.

Well, if the bar is only the Soriano deal, then yeah, it clears it. It's still a large risk, that shouldn't be downplayed by ignoring the large chance this kid either never sees the MLs or does not earn that contract if he does, and trying to minimize that by comparing an amatuer acquisition to a FA one.

[Can_of_corn]

I am now on the This was too risky for my blood bandwagon.

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/source_soler_can_earn_significantly_more_than_30_million/10989137?new_post=true

Once Soler becomes eligible for salary arbitration, he will have the right to choose arbitration instead of the annual salaries specified by his contract, according to a major-league source.

I was fine with 30 million if it included the chance to save down the road, now that it doesn't the Cubs are the only ones absorbing risk here.

[DrOrioles90210]

I am now on the This was too risky for my blood bandwagon.

I was fine with 30 million if it included the chance to save down the road, now that it doesn't the Cubs are the only ones absorbing risk here.

How is that risky? He'll only make significantly more if he plays well enough to earn it in arbitration.

[Can_of_corn]

How is that risky? He'll only make significantly more if he plays well enough to earn it in arbitration.

The way the I thought the deal was originally constructed the Cubs were taking the risk that he would fail, but would have a savings if in fact he played very well. Soler would be risking future arbitration earnings for a guaranteed sum.

Now the risk is only on the Cubs side of the ledger.

[oriolekid]

Everyone is over-analyzing this. You pay the money, have an elite talent, reap the benefits. End of point. Angelos has money, despite what some of you believe, and teh crowds we are sure to be drawing soon will give him even more money to splurge with.

[Lucky Jim]

Everyone is over-analyzing this. You pay the money, have an elite talent, reap the benefits. End of point.

Thanks for clarifying that for us. It's like scales have fallen from my eyes.

[Can_of_corn]

Everyone is over-analyzing this. You pay the money, have an elite talent, reap the benefits. End of point. *Angelos has money, despite what some of you believe, and teh crowds we are sure to be drawing soon will give him even more money to splurge with.

So why didn't a team with more money then the Cubs just pay him 40 million?

*Please fine me any serious post on this forum stating that Peter Angelos does not have a significant amount of money.

[section18]

The Cubs have made a huge mistake.