Jorge Soler finally available

[SrMeowMeow]

9/30M is just ludicrously cool. Do other GMs just let Theo Epstein win? I would have done 9/40M and not cared even at all.

[Lucky Jim]

9/30M is just ludicrously cool. Do other GMs just let Theo Epstein win? I would have done 9/40M and not cared even at all.

Huh. Even with the arb years opt-out?

But if, for example, Soler made his major-league debut in 2015, he would become eligible for arbitration for the 2018 season. If he figured to receive a higher salary in arbitration than the number mandated by his contract, he would simply choose arbitration.

In other words, it's feasible that the Cubs get no MLB value for his first two-three years, decent value for three years, and then pay arbitration numbers. It probably works out okay, I guess. Someone smarter than me will have to crunch the numbers for me.

[SrMeowMeow]

Huh. Even with the arb years opt-out?

I didn't read anything about that, what are the provisions?

[Lucky Jim]

I didn't read anything about that, what are the provisions?

Not as bad as I first made it sound. When he would otherwise become arb-eligible, he can decide on arbitration rather than his salary.

[SilentJames]

Something stinks here. I get the feeling the Cubs had this deal in place for a very long time. Like before they should have been able.

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[Pickles]

Not as bad as I first made it sound. When he would otherwise become arb-eligible, he can decide on arbitration rather than his salary.

How is that not as bad as you first made it seem?

That's exactly how you first made it seem, and it negates a lot of the excess value the Cubs could have hoped to gain from this signing.

[Pickles]

Huh. Even with the arb years opt-out?

In other words, it's feasible that the Cubs get no MLB value for his first two-three years, decent value for three years, and then pay arbitration numbers. It probably works out okay, I guess. Someone smarter than me will have to crunch the numbers for me.

Define probably.

[Pickles]

9/30M is just ludicrously cool. Do other GMs just let Theo Epstein win? I would have done 9/40M and not cared even at all.

They let Theo walk all over them again, just like he did when signed Dice-K, and Lackey, and Carl Crawford, and Luis Hernandez, err Jose Iglesias. When are those other GMs going to learn?

[Lucky Jim]

How is that not as bad as you first made it seem?

That's exactly how you first made it seem, and it negates a lot of the excess value the Cubs could have hoped to gain from this signing.

Because it's not an unbounded opt-out, which was what my post first made it seem like, before I edited with context.

Define probably.

No thanks. Either one knows what "probably" means, or one doesn't.

[Pickles]

Because it's not an unbounded opt-out, which was what my post first made it seem like, before I edited with context.

Okay, I didn't realize you'd edited.

No thanks. Either one knows what "probably" means, or one doesn't.

Well, you don't seem to use it in the way I would so I was just checking.

I don't think it's safe to say giving 30 million to a 20 year old Cuban ball player will "probably" work out. "Probably" implies something is "very likely"; I don't see how you can say that in this case.

[JayThomas]

One thing to keep in mind regarding the risk in this deal for the Cubs: any time you're bidding against the Yankees in order to win the bidding you're going to have to take risk and probably go further out on the curve than your normal comfort zone. The Spankmees simply have a risk/reward curve that is shifted from any other team's.

[SrMeowMeow]

They let Theo walk all over them again, just like he did when signed Dice-K, and Lackey, and Carl Crawford, and Luis Hernandez, err Jose Iglesias. When are those other GMs going to learn?

If you pick any more cherries, you have a societal responsibility to combine them into some sort of pie or flan.

[Pickles]

If you pick any more cherries, you have a societal responsibility to combine them into some sort of pie or flan.

Haha. You have a point here, but my larger point still stands.

[Stotle]

Huh. Even with the arb years opt-out?

In other words, it's feasible that the Cubs get no MLB value for his first two-three years, decent value for three years, and then pay arbitration numbers. It probably works out okay, I guess. Someone smarter than me will have to crunch the numbers for me.

Hypotehtically:

Bonus $5 MM

'12 (LoA) -- $0.50 MM

'13 (HiA/AA) -- $0.50 MM

'14 (AAA/ML) -- $0.50 MM

'15 -- $1 MM

'16 -- $1.25 MM

'17 -- $1.75 MM

'18 -- $3.5 MM (arb eligible)

'19 -- $6.25 MM (arb eligible)

'20 -- $9.75 MM (arb eligible)

If his arb numbers climb past those three amounts, you've likely already received well past your $30 MM worth. At no point are those numbers taxing on a payroll (even in the worst case scenario you are eating 9.75 MM in the year 2020 -- so it's not like you can't plan for it).

[Pickles]

Hypotehtically:

Bonus $5 MM

'12 (LoA) -- $0.50 MM

'13 (HiA/AA) -- $0.50 MM

'14 (AAA/ML) -- $0.50 MM

'15 -- $1 MM

'16 -- $1.25 MM

'17 -- $1.75 MM

'18 -- $3.5 MM (arb eligible)

'19 -- $6.25 MM (arb eligible)

'20 -- $9.75 MM (arb eligible)

If his arb numbers climb past those three amounts, you've likely already received well past your $30 MM worth. At no point are those numbers taxing on a payroll (even in the worst case scenario you are eating 9.75 MM in the year 2020 -- so it's not like you can't plan for it).

Out of curiosity, Stotle, what kind of WARP would you feel the Cubs need to get back to justify this kind of expenditure to an amateur?

For me, it has to be in the 10 range.