Wieters is pretty bad offensively

[El Gordo]

He's been very bad for awhile now. Last 73 at bats rocking a 651 OPS.

In his last 72 AB Josh Hamilton has a .687 OPS. What a bust II.

[Pedro Cerrano]

In his last 72 AB Josh Hamilton has a .687 OPS. What a bust II.

When Wieters has an MVP on his mantle this can be an accurate comparison. Until then it's completely baseless.

[DrungoHazewood]

Eh, regardless of the year, the basic premise is the same. People are so freaking gun-shy about trading anything in the farm system even though most of these guys won't ever amount to anything.

Am I endorsing just dumping Machado or Bundy? No. Partially because I feel like these are extra-special once-in-a-generation types. However, we're currently being burned by our catcher who was rated just as high (if not higher) and couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat.

If Wieters is burning the O's then 80% of MLB has a catcher they'd really like to replace ASAP. He's probably among the top 10 catchers in MLB.

I actually read on either here or another board a poster who wouldn't trade Schoop straight up for Hunter Pence. I mean, come on. It's ridiculous how over-sensitive we get towards trading our own farm-hands. I think deep down it's because fans want to be able to sound smart when one of them eventually hits. "Hey! See! I TOLD you not to trade player X!"

I think they've thought through the trade and decided it's best, long-term, for the Orioles to keep their better prospects rather than trade them for (in this case) basically 1.5 years of Nick Markakis at $10M+ a year. Pence is a 3-win player per full season, and we'd have him for 1.5 years. It's certainly debatable whether a year and half of a pretty good outfielder is worth all of Jonathan Schoop's career.

You also have to consider that the 2012 Orioles, without quite as much luck, would be 5 or 10 games under .500 right now. Their true talent going forward isn't a .550 team. In that position I'd much rather keep the talent on the farm rather than trade it away for incremental, short-term help for a resource-constrained 75-win team.

[Going Underground]

I think you need to be careful and not invoke the false equivalency of prospects. The O's top prospects today certainly aren't the same as the O's top prospects from 2002 or 2005. We were rightfully justified in our outrage over trading our #1 prospect (Denny Bautista) for Jason Grimsley, but Bautista might not be in the organizational top five today.

While it's silly to get up in arms about trading a Tyler Henson, you'd better be getting a legitimately huge haul if you're talking Bundy, Machado, Schoop, and a pretty decent return in immediate help for an Avery or comparable. Bundy and Machado are near untouchable, and they should be.

But they are still prospects. Most teams top picks end up never in the majors or just an average player.BA top 100 from 2005. Some became superstars. Most became average at best. Some got a cup of coffee in the majors or never made it. Joel Guzman from the Dodgers was going to be the next great SS. #5 prospect and last year was in the O's farm system.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050303top100charts.html

[Pedro Cerrano]

If Wieters is burning the O's then 80% of MLB has a catcher they'd really like to replace ASAP. He's probably among the top 10 catchers in MLB.

I think they've thought through the trade and decided it's best, long-term, for the Orioles to keep their better prospects rather than trade them for (in this case) basically 1.5 years of Nick Markakis at $10M+ a year. Pence is a 3-win player per full season, and we'd have him for 1.5 years. It's certainly debatable whether a year and half of a pretty good outfielder is worth all of Jonathan Schoop's career.

Not to me it isn't. Schoop currently is OPSing sub .700 in Bowie at age 20. What should that tell me? Is that really something so precious that I shouldn't let it go for a guy like Pence who is just a year removed from an .871 OPS at the big league level? Who also, even in a down year, is still sitting at a pace of almost 30 HR this season?

It's just ridiculous. Secondly, we aren't even sure if we'd have Schoop for his whole career. Maybe he comes up, stinks (quelle change!) and amounts to nothing. Maybe he's amazing and leaves for Free Agency. Maybe he becomes Pence part 2. Likely not.

I thought I used to be fairly conservative when it came to handling the farm system but some of the stuff I read around the interwebs really makes me scratch my head.

[Pedro Cerrano]

If Wieters is burning the O's then 80% of MLB has a catcher they'd really like to replace ASAP. He's probably among the top 10 catchers in MLB.

Can you honestly state that you're not disappointed with what Wieters has become?

[DrungoHazewood]

But they are still prospects. Most teams top picks end up never in the majors or just an average player.BA top 100 from 2005. Some became superstars. Most became average at best. Some got a cup of coffee in the majors or never made it. Joel Guzman from the Dodgers was going to be the next great SS. #5 prospect and last year was in the O's farm system.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/050303top100charts.html

You're all over the place here. Most top picks never make the majors? That's certainly not true. ...or "just and average player". Well, an average MLB player is worth $millions a year in free agency. If you're constantly trading prospects who might become average players for established average players you're fielding a marginally better team but at unsustainable prices. Teams in the Orioles revenue bin have to get a lot of production from pre-free agency talent. They just can't get in the habit of flipping cheap, young average players for guys like Hunter Pence, who are only a little better than average (and this year not even that) but are much more expensive.

[DrungoHazewood]

Can you honestly state that you're not disappointed with what Wieters has become?

I hoped he would be better, but I'm not complaining. As it is he's worth an awful lot. He's a plus-plus defensive catcher with a better than average bat for his position. He's only a big disappointment because of expectations and the other holes on the Orioles. If he hits free agency as the player he is today he'll get a very good, expensive contract.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not to me it isn't. Schoop currently is OPSing sub .700 in Bowie at age 20. What should that tell me? Is that really something so precious that I shouldn't let it go for a guy like Pence who is just a year removed from an .871 OPS at the big league level? Who also, even in a down year, is still sitting at a pace of almost 30 HR this season?

It's just ridiculous. Secondly, we aren't even sure if we'd have Schoop for his whole career. Maybe he comes up, stinks (quelle change!) and amounts to nothing. Maybe he's amazing and leaves for Free Agency. Maybe he becomes Pence part 2. Likely not.

I thought I used to be fairly conservative when it came to handling the farm system but some of the stuff I read around the interwebs really makes me scratch my head.

Then I'm glad you're not running the Orioles. I just can't fathom trading six years of Schoop for a 2-3 win gain over the next 18 months.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I hoped he would be better, but I'm not complaining. As it is he's worth an awful lot. He's a plus-plus defensive catcher with a better than average bat for his position. He's only a big disappointment because of expectations and the other holes on the Orioles. If he hits free agency as the player he is today he'll get a very good, expensive contract.

Ok, but the point remains that he's just another example of a former prospect who didn't become what we expected. Even if your expectations weren't through the roof (I readily admit mine were) you still admit that you hoped he would be better. And NOBODY would have even thought of trading Wieters back in 2009.

[Going Underground]

You're all over the place here. Most top picks never make the majors? That's certainly not true. ...or "just and average player". Well, an average MLB player is worth $millions a year in free agency. If you're constantly trading prospects who might become average players for established average players you're fielding a marginally better team but at unsustainable prices. Teams in the Orioles revenue bin have to get a lot of production from pre-free agency talent. They just can't get in the habit of flipping cheap, young average players for guys like Hunter Pence, who are only a little better than average (and this year not even that) but are much more expensive.

I just meant that prospects,even ones considered Top 25 are a crapshot.You never know what might happen.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Then I'm glad you're not running the Orioles. I just can't fathom trading six years of Schoop for a 2-3 win gain over the next 18 months.

Pence was worth 5.4 wins last year, I'm not sure why 2011 doesn't count towards his future projections?

As for running the team, the feeling is quite mutual. Because I just can't fathom hitching our wagons year after year after year on prospects, most of which won't amount to anything.

Oh wait, I can fathom it, because it's been happening since 1998.

[DrungoHazewood]

Ok, but the point remains that he's just another example of a former prospect who didn't become what we expected. Even if your expectations weren't through the roof (I readily admit mine were) you still admit that you hoped he would be better. And NOBODY would have even thought of trading Wieters back in 2009.

And I still wouldn't have. It's very hard to fill the catching position. And we currently have a guy who shuts down the running game, the pitchers are more than happy with, and who still provides pretty good offense. Maybe with 20-20 hindsight you could capitalize on the delta between expectations and performance, but that's obviously impossible in real life.

Sometimes you just need to be happy with "is" instead of "should be". Wieters isn't the reason the O's are 8 games back, that's on the other black holes in the roster. He's part of the reason they're as good as they are.

[El Gordo]

When Wieters has an MVP on his mantle this can be an accurate comparison. Until then it's completely baseless.

Hardly baseless, IMO. If one of the best hitters in baseball can have a 72 AB stretch wHere he hits below .700 OPS, then why is it such a huge disappointment that a good defensive C does the same. Cold streaks are a part of baseball. I am surprised so many people haven't discovered this simpla fact. Since early May Hamilton has dropped .377 points OPS, Wieters has dropped .260.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Hardly baseless, IMO. If one of the best hitters in baseball can have a 72 AB stretch wHere he hits below .700 OPS, then why is it such a huge disappointment that a good defensive C does the same. Cold streaks are a part of baseball. I am surprised so many people haven't discovered this simpla fact. Since early May Hamilton has dropped .377 points OPS, Wieters has dropped .260.

Uh because Hamilton has a track record of being a successful hitter, for a full season, Wieters doesn't.

Baseless comparison.