Taking into account yesterday's megadeal, what are your current power rankings for the AL East?

[DrungoHazewood]

Is Machado for a full season over Betemit/Reynolds more of an upgrade than Reyes over Escobar?

That depends on what Machado and Reyes do, doesn't it? Reyes is certainly capable of producing at an MVP level, and Machado is 20, and he will have to make some adjustments. I could see either of them anywhere in the 2-6 win range, with some possibility of outliers beyond that on either side.

[flashjordnk]

What did the Jays truly add?

++Reyes - Significant upgrade over Escobar. Improvements in plate discipline, speed, BUT Reyes has not shown great defense. dWAR has Reyes as -1.7 the last two years. Escobar in the same time frame 4.7. Generally I think Reyes is a bit underrated due to a spattering of injuries that got him labeled as injury prone, but he's actually a guy who has played a lot. I'd worry about his speed declining with age like his defense, but he's the best piece of this deal IMO. (From a bbref WAR perspective, Reyes adds .3 WAR, fg 2.7 WAR) +2-3 WAR improvement.

+Johnson - Clearly huge upside. But also, can he stay healthy? We've all heard rumors about his health. He was league average in the NL last year. his K/9 was below his career level for the first time in the last 4 years. BB/9 is on the rise. Velocity is down for the 4th straight year. But he's missing bats and his swinging strike % didn't decline. I'm just not sold as him being an ace and wouldn't be surprised to see him completely broken down next year. bb 3.1 WAR/fg 3.8 I'm not sure this in an indicator of too much, but I'd peg him for about that next year. But if he replaces their worst pitcher we're talking about a 4+ WAR increase (if healthy).

=Buerhle - League Average Innings Eater. A 34 year SP who went to the NL (and was considered to be a bit of pitchers park) and saw his ERA go up. It's depth the Jays need, but nothing special. (BBref 3.2 WAR, FG 2.1) I'm inclined to think this number is about to start to decline each year. But still a +3ish WAR improvement.

=Bonifacio - Looks like he's learned some plate discipline and he's fast. But can this guy stay healthy? Never had one season with more than 600 PA's. He was about a 3 WAR player to years ago (3.1/3.3 respectively) but that was a career year and never really topped 1 WAR outstanding of that. I'm guessing he replaces Davis (RF) or Johnson (2b), .5/1.4 and .5/.7 respective WARs. It's just unclear if he's going to provide any improvement, if we say he'll give you 2 WAR, that's a +1 WAR improvement.

-Buck isn't better than Arencibia and seems to be just a salary dump. Was .4/1.2 WAR compared to 1.4/1.4. So no real improvement. And probably a salary loss on Buck.

By my count that's about an 11 WAR improvement. That gets Toronto to 84 wins. And that's expecting Bonifacio to play, no injuries to Johnson, and no speed regression from Reyes. I'm just not sold this makes them a top 2 team in the division last year. That's only two games better than the O's pythag last year. And they were a team that improved over the duration of the year substantially, IMO.

I just don't see this trade making the Jays a better team than the Orioles.

[DrungoHazewood]

Right now I can't rank the O's as high as you do because McLouth and Saunders are FAs and Reynolds in on the bubble. And if Reynolds is on the bubble where is Hammel. He is a FA after 2013 also. Once these issues are resolved the rankings will be clearer.

Yea, just like we have NO idea what the Yankees might be until they resolve the Russell Martin situation.

[waroriole]

That depends on what Machado and Reyes do, doesn't it? Reyes is certainly capable of producing at an MVP level, and Machado is 20, and he will have to make some adjustments. I could see either of them anywhere in the 2-6 win range, with some possibility of outliers beyond that on either side.

Of course it does. Just trying to point out that we have some areas where we can expect improvement by doing almost nothing.

What do you think the odds are for most improved performance?

[Enjoy Terror]

The Red Sox added Lackey, Gonzalez, and Crawford to become "the greatest team since the 1927 Yankees".

Acquiring the names doesn't always lead to anything.

1. Yankees

2. Rays

3. Jays

4. O's

5. Sox

[Frobby]

What did the Jays truly add?

++Reyes - Significant upgrade over Escobar. Improvements in plate discipline, speed, BUT Reyes has not shown great defense. dWAR has Reyes as -1.7 the last two years. Escobar in the same time frame 4.7. Generally I think Reyes is a bit underrated due to a spattering of injuries that got him labeled as injury prone, but he's actually a guy who has played a lot. I'd worry about his speed declining with age like his defense, but he's the best piece of this deal IMO. (From a bbref WAR perspective, Reyes adds .3 WAR, fg 2.7 WAR) +2-3 WAR improvement.

+Johnson - Clearly huge upside. But also, can he stay healthy? We've all heard rumors about his health. He was league average in the NL last year. his K/9 was below his career level for the first time in the last 4 years. BB/9 is on the rise. Velocity is down for the 4th straight year. But he's missing bats and his swinging strike % didn't decline. I'm just not sold as him being an ace and wouldn't be surprised to see him completely broken down next year. bb 3.1 WAR/fg 3.8 I'm not sure this in an indicator of too much, but I'd peg him for about that next year. But if he replaces their worst pitcher we're talking about a 4+ WAR increase (if healthy).

=Buerhle - League Average Innings Eater. A 34 year SP who went to the NL (and was considered to be a bit of pitchers park) and saw his ERA go up. It's depth the Jays need, but nothing special. (BBref 3.2 WAR, FG 2.1) I'm inclined to think this number is about to start to decline each year. But still a +3ish WAR improvement.

=Bonifacio - Looks like he's learned some plate discipline and he's fast. But can this guy stay healthy? Never had one season with more than 600 PA's. He was about a 3 WAR player to years ago (3.1/3.3 respectively) but that was a career year and never really topped 1 WAR outstanding of that. I'm guessing he replaces Davis (RF) or Johnson (2b), .5/1.4 and .5/.7 respective WARs. It's just unclear if he's going to provide any improvement, if we say he'll give you 2 WAR, that's a +1 WAR improvement.

-Buck isn't better than Arencibia and seems to be just a salary dump. Was .4/1.2 WAR compared to 1.4/1.4. So no real improvement. And probably a salary loss on Buck.

By my count that's about an 11 WAR improvement. That gets Toronto to 84 wins. And that's expecting Bonifacio to play, no injuries to Johnson, and no speed regression from Reyes. I'm just not sold this makes them a top 2 team in the division last year. That's only two games better than the O's pythag last year. And they were a team that improved over the duration of the year substantially, IMO.

I just don't see this trade making the Jays a better team than the Orioles.

If I bought your logic that these guys bring an 11 game improvement, I'd see that as potentially making the Blue Jays contenders, depending on whether some of their other players are healthier this year. Last year was a down year for the Jays so I saw them (before yesterday) as more of an 80ish win team, not a 73-win team, if they got Drabek and Hutchison back healthy and Bautista was able to play a full year. But, I think +11 overstates the case. I now see the Jays as an 86-90 win team, as opposed to the 80-win team I was expecting.

[adam_jonzin']

I love how people are so willing to buy into the hype these blockbuster mega-deals just because they look good on paper (admittedly, a good reason to do so) when more often than not they end up flopping.

[Aglets]

Is Machado for a full season over Betemit/Reynolds more of an upgrade than Reyes over Escobar?

Note, this is a VERY hand wavy, simplistic analysis using WAR. If you want more in depth I'm going to need to renegotiate my salary.

At the SS position, Escobar was worth 2.5 WAR last year, Reyes was worth 2.8 WAR. Difference of 0.3 according to bb-ref.

According to fangraphs, incidentally, the difference is 4.5 - 1.8 = 2.7

So let's split the difference and call it + 1.5 Wins.

For Machado over our collective scrubs at 3B this year....

Machado would be worth about 4.5 WAR over a full season according to bb-ref. (3.9 according to fangraphs).

Here's where it gets a little bit tricky, Machado was worth something like 1.3 WAR for roughly 1/3 of an MLB season. If we assume that we got 'replacement level performance' at 3B for the remainder of the season, then that increase from 1.3 to 4ish adds +2.7 Wins. Now, most would say that it's OBVIOUS that we had 'below replacement level' performance at 3B for most of the year, so that actually takes away from the 1.3 number, meaning that the increase in WAR for next year is conservatively in the +3-4 Win range. I think I would stand behind that number.

So by that very rudimentary analysis, the Jays are adding 1.5 wins at SS while we are adding 3-4 wins at third.

Of course, all bets are off if Reyes becomes a 5+ win player again.

[flashjordnk]

If I bought your logic that these guys bring an 11 game improvement, I'd see that as potentially making the Blue Jays contenders, depending on whether some of their other players are healthier this year. Last year was a down year for the Jays so I saw them (before yesterday) as more of an 80ish win team, not a 73-win team, if they got Drabek and Hutchison back healthy and Bautista was able to play a full year. But, I think +11 overstates the case. I now see the Jays as an 86-90 win team, as opposed to the 80-win team I was expecting.

Well the logic is based on purely the results of last year. Not an estimate of what I thought that team was going into this year.

Last year might have been a down year but even with Morrow coming back, a guy who has never logged more than 180 innings and 70 more games from Bautista, I'm not seeing a 7 win improvement in that team from last year without additions. Perhaps 5 at best. I think you can project some improvement from Lawrie, but Rasmus isn't showing he's anything more than what they thought he was. And you have to assume that Encarnacion who outslugged his career SLG by 80 points will sustain. They aren't forced to ride terrible SPs to end the year...I see there being about 4-5 WAR for improvement there for the Jays (and agree with you that they were about 80 to start the year).

I think these additions erode some of your assumption of them being an 80 win team before they get added in. With Buerhle being the pretty typical innings eater I think he eats into that improvement to 80 you were talking about, and that's assuming he filled one of the -1 WAR spots the Blue Jays were getting, part of that -1 that I used the generate the 9 would already be incorporated into that 4-5 WAR there. I think some presumed improvement from Escobar would be added in depleting some of Reyes value too.

But even outstanding of all that, if you assume a +6 - 10 improvement over your 80, I'm not sure how that's all that far off from assuming the upside of all the players inserted WAR is 11. I don't think it'll be 11, but I think that's the highest potential value they could add.

[flashjordnk]

Of course, all bets are off if Reyes becomes a 5 win player again.

Given the FG number can't be all offense as Reyes was just slightly a better Run Creator than league average, some of that has to just be positional value and base running. But given Reyes is a speed guy, not really a power, or really high OBP guy, the question is will he start to decline as his base running/fielding metrics have. I don't think at 30 Reyes is going to return to a 5 WAR player without improving his defense substantially.

Plus that turf is going to be hell on Reyes knees. That shouldn't go unmentioned.

[BrunoCherrytown]

I really think the Yankees are going to fall off a cliff. Their lineup is getting old enough for a fantasy baseball camp lineup.

In fact, the O's fantasy baseball camp could be comparable in age soon.

They are on an unsustainable course and they can't rebuild quickly through the draft or international with the caps in place limiting overslots. It's a whack year for free agents. They want to get under the luxury cap.

All the pieces are falling into place for them to collapse for a 2-3 year period I think. They will come back quicker than most because of their financial advantages and an ownership group that is willing to spend instead of what we have. But 2013 - I'm booking it - they collapse. Fourth place.*

*Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with an expert before making any decisions regarding your baseball decisions. The opinions expressed here are those of a complete MLB buffoon and are subject to change at a moment's notice. A chimpanzee throwing his own feces at the wall to determine MLB standings has as much chance as me at being right.

[Brendan25]

Way too early for me to do this. Right now I'd have the O's 4th or 5th, but I don't know who their 1B, DH, LF, or #4/5 pitcher is. Way too many variables right now. I have no idea what the Rays lineup is going to look like with so many players possibly leaving.

[Bradysburns]

Rays

Jays

Yankees

Orioles

Red Sox

[wildcard]

I really think the Yankees are going to fall off a cliff. Their lineup is getting old enough for a fantasy baseball camp lineup.

In fact, the O's fantasy baseball camp could be comparable in age soon.

They are on an unsustainable course and they can't rebuild quickly through the draft or international with the caps in place limiting overslots. It's a whack year for free agents. They want to get under the luxury cap.

All the pieces are falling into place for them to collapse for a 2-3 year period I think. They will come back quicker than most because of their financial advantages and an ownership group that is willing to spend instead of what we have. But 2013 - I'm booking it - they collapse. Fourth place.*

*Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consult with an expert before making any decisions regarding your baseball decisions. The opinions expressed here are those of a complete MLB buffoon and are subject to change at a moment's notice. A chimpanzee throwing his own feces at the wall to determine MLB standings has as much chance as me at being right.

The Yankees don't rebuild. They reload. They will use their money to buy enough players to contend.

[Brendan25]

For the record, as of RIGHT NOW, I have it

Yankees

Rays

Jays

Orioles

Sox

But that is based off of who is currently on the rosters.