Stark ranks O's as having 4th worst offseason in MLB at 1/2way point.

[murph]

Well Greenberg doesn't add any strength to the offseason...

You know he was being sarcastic, right?

[Frobby]

I think Szymborski's analysis is interesting. He had us as an 80 win team for next year at the start of the offseason, and says we are -3 since then. The 80 win projection says he thinks we were lucky last season and the improvements in the final two months were largely a mirage. The -3 since then I think reflects the fact that other teams in our division have improved and those extra wins have to be extra losses for someone else. Or, it could reflect the loss of Reynolds and potential loss of Saunders.

I don't buy the 80-win starting point, but I might buy the -3 assessment of how we've done the last two months compared to our competitors. If the offseason ended today I'd be frustrated that we didn't do more. I don't see any likely moves on the horizon that would change my assessment, but let's see what happens in the next two months.

[ricowiz]

Had we been aggressive and traded for Morales, which I still am perplexed as to why we didnt trade for him, I think that would have made this offseason more successful then the near disaster it has been. We have yet to acquire any of the "targets" that DD has said he is gunning for.

[Brendan25]

No one said to spend on an insane contract. I am saying that we need to add pieces to become a better squad. We haven't done that, clearly.

A few baseball writers have pointed this out while folks on the OH keep thinking standing pat will propel us into the 2013 WS.

It won't. Why all the hysterics man?

MSK

What were the non insane FA contracts we missed out on in your opinion?

I'm still waiting for this.

[Brendan25]

No one said to spend on an insane contract. I am saying that we need to add pieces to become a better squad. We haven't done that, clearly.

A few baseball writers have pointed this out while folks on the OH keep thinking standing pat will propel us into the 2013 WS.

It won't. Why all the hysterics man?

MSK

Had we been aggressive and traded for Morales, which I still am perplexed as to why we didnt trade for him, I think that would have made this offseason more successful then the near disaster it has been. We have yet to acquire any of the "targets" that DD has said he is gunning for.

The Angles wanted an "innings eater starter"

Who do we have that fits that description that you would have been willing to trade?

[Tony-OH]

All baseball and sabermetric guys with their motes of analytical skill and cloaks of +2 intellect realized that the returns on money spent in free agency diminish rapidly and today's 6-year, $100 million deal for Carlos Lee, 8-year, $136 million deal for Alfonso Soriano, 8-year, $121 million deal for Mike Hampton, 10-year, $275 million deal (signed at age 32) for Alex Rodriguez, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on, EVERY ONE OF THESE KINDS OF DEALS, IS A HUGE

FREAKING

ALBATROSS

EVERY TIME

AND YOU NEVER LEARN, EVERY YEAR THE SAME PEOPLE ASK FOR PETER ANGELOS TO OPEN HIS MAGIC WALLET AND BUY THEM THE BIGGEST NEW CHRISTMAS TOY BECAUSE THEY ARE EIGHT YEAR OLDS WITH NO ATTENTION SPAN OR ANALYTICAL ABILITY OR CRITICAL THINKING

BECAUSE THESE THINGS ARE SO MUCH HARDER THAN "BUY ME THAT TOY, DADDY"

On the other hand, we had 14 losing season with that philosophy and after one winning season, a lot of folks would like to think we'll be contenders on paper, instead of pretenders again. Perhaps the Orioles will prove everyone wrong again, perhaps all of the guys that came out of nowhere last year will repeat or do better, but perhaps this was the year to add a core piece to the organization like a MOO or top o the rotation starter. I guess we're going to find out which was was the right way, but I tend to agree with the folks that say standing pat was not the best way to ensure the team is contender again next season.

[Brendan25]

On the other hand, we had 14 losing season with that philosophy and after one winning season, a lot of folks would like to think we'll be contenders on paper, instead of pretenders again. Perhaps the Orioles will prove everyone wrong again, perhaps all of the guys that came out of nowhere last year will repeat or do better, but perhaps this was the year to add a core piece to the organization like a MOO or top o the rotation starter. I guess we're going to find out which was was the right way, but I tend to agree with the folks that say standing pat was not the best way to ensure the team is contender again next season.

Who "came out of nowhere" though? McLouth, Gonzalez, and the bullpen? Am I missing someone significant?

[Tony-OH]

Who "came out of nowhere" though? McLouth, Gonzalez, and the bullpen? Am I missing someone significant?

Multiple people if you look at at. Hammel had a career year, Chen was better than most people thought if you consider the contract he signed and the lack of interest outside of the Orioles, Gonzalez, McLouth, Chris Davis never had a year like he had, Strop was only a year away from being designated for assignment by the Rangers, Markakis' +OPS of 126 was the second highest of his career, Jim Johnson never saved more 10 games in a season before last year, and Steve Johnson had a 5.56 ERA in Norfolk in 2011.

Now maybe all of these guys will continue to improve or repeat those performances, but the chances are not that good that they all will. I truly think Duquette is using this year as placeholder until he sees what he truly has in Bundy and Guasman and maybe even Schoop. I think he's hoping the Orioles can stay competitive with the same guys as last year and that the same dynamics will stay true. Perhaps they will. I'm not saying Duquette is necessarily wrong, I'm just saying if we go into spring training with out current roster we will most likely end up around 80-85 wins next year. That will not be good enough to compete in 2013.

[Brendan25]

Multiple people if you look at at. Hammel had a career year, Chen was better than most people thought if you consider the contract he signed and the lack of interest outside of the Orioles, Gonzalez, McLouth, Chris Davis never had a year like he had, Strop was only a year away from being designated for assignment by the Rangers, Markakis' +OPS of 126 was the second highest of his career, Jim Johnson never saved more 10 games in a season before last year, and Steve Johnson had a 5.56 ERA in Norfolk in 2011.

Now maybe all of these guys will continue to improve or repeat those performances, but the chances are not that good that they all will. I truly think Duquette is using this year as placeholder until he sees what he truly has in Bundy and Guasman and maybe even Schoop. I think he's hoping the Orioles can stay competitive with the same guys as last year and that the same dynamics will stay true. Perhaps they will. I'm not saying Duquette is necessarily wrong, I'm just saying if we go into spring training with out current roster we will most likely end up around 80-85 wins next year. That will not be good enough to compete in 2013.

When I think of coming out of nowhere though I think of Gonzalez. Chen was supposed to be solid. Maybe not as good as he was but he was supposed to be solid. Markakis didn't come out of nowhere. Davis was at one time a top prospect. McLouth technically came out of nowhere but he had done it before. Strop was dominant the year before for us in the bullpen. I understand what you're saying but we didn't have 8 Miguel Gonzalez. We had a bunch of guys that had done it before or were supposed to do it, do it.

[Enjoy Terror]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7581486/mlb-spring-preview-offseason-review

Stark said that we were the 2nd least improved ballclub last year too. Just in front of the A's.

Don't pay attention to Stark.

[ricowiz]

The Angles wanted an "innings eater starter"

Who do we have that fits that description that you would have been willing to trade?

Well, do you think they would have taken Matusz? I know what the media said they were looking for, but I cant imagine they would turn down Matusz for Morales.

[ricowiz]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7581486/mlb-spring-preview-offseason-review

Stark said that we were the 2nd least improved ballclub last year too. Just in front of the A's.

Don't pay attention to Stark.

So we should do nothing, because last year we proved everyone wrong. Not sure I buy that philosophy. Standing pat works if every other team stands pat. As much as our young guys are improving, so are other teams young guys...we havent added any piece to help out the advancement of our young guys.

[Brendan25]

Well, do you think they would have taken Matusz? I know what the media said they were looking for, but I cant imagine they would turn down Matusz for Morales.

Has Matusz pitched 190 innings + each of the past 3 years to an era in the high 3's?

[ricowiz]

Has Matusz pitched 190 innings + each of the past 3 years to an era in the high 3's?

Well, the high 3 ERA can be explained by pitching at Safeco, and again, is it a known fact that LAA was looking for an innings eater? Or is that generated by a rumor in the media?

[Frobby]

Who "came out of nowhere" though? McLouth, Gonzalez, and the bullpen? Am I missing someone significant?

I think the big issue is whether the pitching was legit. Let's look at this objectively:

Hammel has a career ERA+ of 95, was at 123 last year and didn't pitch a full year

Chen was an unkown, now the league knows him better

Tillman has a career ERA+ of 91, was at 144 last year and spend only half a season in the big leagues

Gonzalez had a career 3.68 ERA in the minors, comes up for half a season and posts a 130 ERA+

Saunders may not be back, and probably pitched a little better than expected while with the Orioles

Jim Johnson's good, but nobody saves 53 of 56 two years in a row (or even gets 56 chances two years in a row)

Pedro Strop was very shaky the last 6 weeks of the season.

O'Day and Ayala are both good relief pitcchers, but had very good years

Patton has a short track record

Now, the optimist would say, Hammel, Tillman and Gonzalez are all legit and this year we will have them for a full season, and out of Matusz, Arrieta, Britton, Hunter and Wada, somebody's bound to step up. But I can see why the industry is somewhat skeptical that our pitching can repeat.