Roch: Tigers covet Hardy

[Stotle]

That is not the way DD is building this team. DD is promoting talent young players early. Machado, Wieters, I think we can expect the same from Bundy and Gausman. That keeps the payroll low as compared to sign Hamilton for 125M. The O's are in a position to have a young talented, playoff experienced team for a price that is 50M lower than other teams. Its taking advantage of #1 draft choices that the O's had to be on the bottom of the league to get. Now they are maturing and DD is putting what is needed around them - if he can sign who he wants.

If this were 2014 or 2015, I'd say you are right on. I think Gordo has the right read, and the benefit to the O's is the smallish chance that the kids can all click at the same time. Otherwise, 2014-16 is probably the closer target horizon, if the FO thinks in those terms.

[Ruzious]

The reason Morse would not cost as much as Upton in trade/dollars is that Morse is not as good at the game of baseball as is Upton.

And nobody said anything different than that. I even said in that post "Obviously, everyone would rather have Upton".

[Singleton]

Just so it's clear, I'm OK with the Saunders/Morse approach. It's just not what I'd call a "go for it" strategy. It would be a fairly conservative, middle of the road approach, even though it does raise the payroll to about the major league average.

Just wondering what would be a more conservative approach? If these moves are made they will likely have two roster additions from the team that ended last year: A. Casilla instead of Andino and Morse instead of Reynolds. That's about as close to standing pat as we can come.

[Ruzious]

I think it's very difficult to argue that Morse is a better offensive player going forward given his and Upton's age, his track record, and his profile. If I were betting on who will have the better offensive 2013 I'd have no problem going with Upton.

And I'd have no problem betting on Morse. You can reasonably make the case for either one.

[wildcard]

If this were 2014 or 2015, I'd say you are right on. I think Gordo has the right read, and the benefit to the O's is the smallish chance that the kids can all click at the same time. Otherwise, 2014-16 is probably the closer target horizon, if the FO thinks in those terms.

The Yankees will have a 240M payroll in 2015 after they get rid of the luxury tax and add 25M in TV revenue. Other teams like Boston will follow. The O's window is 2013-2014. Wieters, Jones, and Davis are 27. The majority of the team is under 30. This is the year the O's go for it. That is why the payroll is going toward 100M instead of the 80M that many talked about early this off season. The O's payroll is building with the increase in revenue from TV, the attendance and increased revenue from MASN. They are positioned to keep this thing rolling.

I think DD is in good position to get Saunders and deepen the rotation. I think Morse is a much hard thing to achieve. The O's are waiting but so are the Mariners Tampa and Red Sox.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I guess I am not understanding how we traded Bedard and Miggy and Guts and were immediately better off, but now JJ Hardy is suddenly too crucial to the 2013 to be dealt.

I also have a tough time understanding folks mentioning some sort of "win now" mode when we should always be in "make the organization better" mode - even if it means taking a step back in 2013 for the major league team's win column - though I emphatically note that dealing Hardy does not necessarily mean our major league team will be worse.

The Tigers are both notorious overpayers for talent and a very natural destination for JJ Hardy.

One can always say, "there is a deal to be made here", but it is especially true in this case - especially if our front office believes MM capable of handling SS.

I'm kinda of onboard with this line of thinking. I always thought guys like Hardy and Jim Johnson were good trade chips for us this year... and they coud bring back a nice package from the Tigers (who seam to be a good match for us for both) including Castellanos and maybe Porcello. I don't think it would be that hard to gap the loss of Johnson and Hardy, though I guess it's possible it could end up pretty bad for 2013, I think you have to look at the bigger picture (2013 and beyond).

The real issue would be third base, maybe Peralta gaps that for a year until one of the Mils are ready to go.

That said, I doubt the O's are thinking this way.

[Stotle]

The Yankees will have a 240M payroll in 2015 after they get rid of the luxury tax and add 25M in TV revenue. Other teams like Boston will follow. The O's window is 2013-2014. Wieters, Jones, and Davis are 27. The majority of the team is under 30. This is the year the O's go for it. That is why the payroll is going toward 100M instead of the 80M that many talked about early this off season. The O's payroll is building with the increase in revenue from TV, the attendance and increased revenue from MASN. They are position to keep this they rolling.

I think DD is in good position to get Saunders and deepen the rotation. I think Morse is a much hard thing to achieve. The O's are waiting but so are the Mariners and Red Sox.

I mean, the moves you are describing just don't constitute "going for it". They are solid baseball moves improving the overall stability of the organization and the 25-man. Nothing wrong with them at all, but they aren't the moves DD would be making if he truly believed Baltimore's window to compete was 2013-2014.

[weams]

I think you want to win now and are projecting onto Buck and DD. They are trying to build a solid organization. This has always been their MO. By maintaining the appearence of contending I mean insuring that the club is an 84-86 W team. That will keep them in the hunt and make for another exciting season. But to GO FO IT would mean adding 10 W worth of players at an additional 50 M.

Yes Sir.

[wildcard]

Just wondering what would be a more conservative approach? If these moves are made they will likely have two roster additions from the team that ended last year: A. Casilla instead of Andino and Morse instead of Reynolds. That's about as close to standing pat as we can come.

Plus a full year of McLouth, Machado, Gonzo, Tillman and maybe Saunders. The return from injury of Roberts and Reimold (I am skepical).

[Ruzious]

Bottom line in a lot of this discussion - Would you rather have Bundy and Morse (while trading away a couple of prospects that the O's will likely never miss), OR would you rather have Upton and considerably less cash available to spend for each of the next 3 years.

[srock]

Generically, should the Orioles trade Hardy and move Machado to SS?

Its a smart move based on value. Machado will be more valuable long term as a SS then a 3B. Hardy is at peak value right now.

But it causes major problems.

1. Risk Machado doesn't turn into an affable defender at SS

2. 3B right now becomes a huge hole

I think the value potential is there but it can only be realized if another team (or teams) have the players to trade back. Hardy is at least as valuable to the Orioles as he is to any other team so I find it hard to imagine any team offering enough to pry him away from this team.

[wildcard]

I mean, the moves you are describing just don't constitute "going for it". They are solid baseball moves improving the overall stability of the organization and the 25-man. Nothing wrong with them at all, but they aren't the moves DD would be making if he truly believed Baltimore's window to compete was 2013-2014.

If Buck and DD believe in the players they have but need to fill holes as a middle market team, that is the way the O's "Go for it". And it has a good chance of working.

[Frobby]

The loss of Hardy who had a sub .700 OPS will cripple this franchise for over a decade?!?! No way man. It's easy to find a SS who can play with GG defense...see Brendan Ryan.

But do you think it's easy to find shortstops who have been worth 7.0 rWAR in the last two years? Brendan Ryan had a .555 OPS last year, Hardy's hardly in that company.

[Number5]

The O's are not in a win now mode, but they are not rebuilding either. I think DD's plan last year was to work to lay the groundwork for a pipeline of good young players from the MiL, that would make us a continuous contender in spite of where the MFY and SUX are, while getting the ML club to .500. They surprised him. Now he has to continue building the pipeline while maintaining the appearence of contention for the ML club. All this within strict budgetary contraints. DET could really use Hardy, so theuy have to pay up to get him. Porcello and Castellanos maybe, depending on what you think of Castellanos. What about Porcello and Soler if we include tjhe Cubs?

I agree with you as to the direction the O's are taking, but I don't see how we could work a 3-way deal and get both Porcello and Soler. As I understand it, the whole reason for the Cubs' discussions with the Tigers is that the Cubs are targeting Porcello. It seems to me that for the Cubs to give up a prospect like Soler, they would have to get back Porcello in the deal. No?

[Ruzious]

And yet, though any team can have this supposed fabulous hitter for a bullpen arm, there doesn't appear that much interest. Kinda makes you wonder, doesn't it?

It's the same kind of situation as when the O's traded for Hardy. Taking advantage of that kind of situation is a GOOD thing; not a bad thing.