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Fangraphs' Orioles Top 15 Prospects '12-'13


luismatos4prez

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I'm not sure there's much left to project with Bridwell. He hasn't shown anyone, anywhere, at anytime since high school that he can pitch professionally.

Glynn Davis is a little high for a guy who hasn't developed the power he was supposed to, Johnny Ruetigger is basically outhitting him.

I think Wright should be higher than Avery; I think Wright can be long man with a ceiling of 4th starter whereas Avery is lucky to be considered 4th outfielder.

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Branden Kline isn't a bullpen guy.

You can stretch him out, but he was a closer at Virginia. He is totally a bullpen guy?

Thought this was interesting:

Branden Kline, a former All-Met pitcher at Thomas Johnson High, grew up with two parents as Baltimore Orioles fans, so just to keep things interesting, he long ago adopted the Boston Red Sox as his favorite team.
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I gotta say, I really don't understand why Ty Kelly doesn't get more love. His patience and eye are nothing short of outstanding. I know it's just the minors and he isn't facing the highest caliber of pitching, but there are just not many guys in professional baseball that have more BBs than Ks at age 23.

His .425 OBP last year in Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk should have earned him more praise than it did, in my opinion. On top of that, he's a switch hitter, plays several positions capably, and had the pop to hit 29 doubles last year. He doesn't have a high ceiling, which I guess is why he doesn't make many of these lists, but he will be a useful MLer in one role or another. I hope it's in Baltimore.

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I gotta say, I really don't understand why Ty Kelly doesn't get more love. His patience and eye are nothing short of outstanding. I know it's just the minors and he isn't facing the highest caliber of pitching, but there are just not many guys in professional baseball that have more BBs than Ks at age 23.

His .425 OBP last year in Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk should have earned him more praise than it did, in my opinion. On top of that, he's a switch hitter, plays several positions capably, and had the pop to hit 29 doubles last year. He doesn't have a high ceiling, which I guess is why he doesn't make many of these lists, but he will be a useful MLer in one role or another. I hope it's in Baltimore.

I like Kelly's bat, probably more than most, but the issue with most scouts is that he doesn't have a real position and he doesn't hit for enough power to be a DH. Personally, I think his hit tool will get him into the major leagues where he will be able to hit enough to be a backup/utility/pinch hitter kind of guy on a National League team.

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I gotta say, I really don't understand why Ty Kelly doesn't get more love. His patience and eye are nothing short of outstanding. I know it's just the minors and he isn't facing the highest caliber of pitching, but there are just not many guys in professional baseball that have more BBs than Ks at age 23.

His .425 OBP last year in Frederick, Bowie, and Norfolk should have earned him more praise than it did, in my opinion. On top of that, he's a switch hitter, plays several positions capably, and had the pop to hit 29 doubles last year. He doesn't have a high ceiling, which I guess is why he doesn't make many of these lists, but he will be a useful MLer in one role or another. I hope it's in Baltimore.

For me it comes down to the fact he was an old 23 (just over the cutoff for a "baseball age" of 24 last year) and he spent about 2/3rds of the season in Frederick. He turns 25 this July. I see this as a make-or-break year for him, to prove whether he can maintain his OBP in the high minors, or not. He has a lot of similarities to Ryan Adams. But also some challenges, as he has less power than Adams and that'll make it hard to maintain his walk rate against tougher competition.

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Hulet is interviewed about Schoop (who he pronounces "Shoop," after some discussion of whether it is "Shoop" or "Scoop," both of which are wrong) on this podcast: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-audio-prospects-with-marc-hulet-5/ (fast forward to the 28 minute mark). Says he can be competent at all three positions (2B/SS/3B) defensively, and bat will play there. Most likely to end up at 3B, capable of hitting 15-20 HR or a little more, potentially an above average bat at 3B, definitely above average for 2B or SS.

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Don't really understand how Hader was omitted.

Even though I ranked him higher than anyone else, I can see how some evaluators will want to see more before putting him on their lists. Afterall, the guy was a 19th round pick and legitimate 19th round pick coming out of high school. He threw 86-87 MPH in high school after throwing 75-77 the year before. Obviously his velocity took a big jump in the pros and his strikeout numbers were off the chart, but he only went more than three innings once so far in his career so some may want to see him in a starter's role before anointing him a top prospect. I understand all of that, but when I look at his overall potential and how fast his velocity has spiked, I look at a kid who just bloomed a little too late for him to get significant money in the draft. Let me tell you, Hader may have been a top three round pick had he shown the stuff he showed in the pros while still in high school. The other thing to remember is how I do my prospect lists. In my lists, I say to myself, what prospect would I rather have in my system? For me, I'd rather have a guy who has been compared to Chris Sale by Rick Peterson over a whole lot of other guys who may have a better chance of reaching their much lower ceilings.

It doesn't make it right or wrong, just a different way of looking at things.

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It doesn't make it right or wrong, just a different way of looking at things.

You do it the right way. If a kid is flashing the arsenal that Hader did in the summer, IMO it has to warrant a top 15 mention especially because of the upside.

These lists look more credible, IMO, when putting out a name to watch at the last important slot.

If Hader (or another upside prospect) does pan out and becomes a top five prospect, the list looks poor for listing a run-of-the-mill (perhaps not the best term) prospect in that slot.

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You do it the right way. If a kid is flashing the arsenal that Hader did in the summer, IMO it has to warrant a top 15 mention especially because of the upside.

These lists look more credible, IMO, when putting out a name to watch at the last important slot.

If Hader (or another upside prospect) does pan out and becomes a top five prospect, the list looks poor for listing a run-of-the-mill (perhaps not the best term) prospect in that slot.

A lot of these guys go off draft status, previous BA rankings, and stats to make their lists. I mean, they know they are not experts on the Orioles system so they start with BA. BA has been doing this for a long time and I respect them, but they rely way too heavily off draft status and their previous rankings if you ask me. That's how a Wynn Pelzer ends up in your top ten long after his stuff warranted that ranking.

Then again, if I had to do a list of another organization, I'd probably use BA as my starting point as well and go from there. I probably spend close to 120 hours putting my lists together. I doubt these other guys can invest that much time. Again, it doesn't make them bad at what they do, just limited due to the fact that they have to cover all of the organizations.

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When the O's FO trades for a guy like Pelzer, are they going off their own scouting, or a little bit of everything? I would hope that Andy had at least a few personal scouting reports by an Orioles scout on Pelzer before making the deal.

Pelzer was acquired for a has been Tejada. I'm pretty sure everyone knew what the deal was with that trade. Pelzer was not the guy of a year or two before. Whatever happened to him, he lost some velocity and his stuff took a step back no matter what role they tried him in.

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I get what you mean. It's one thing to unload a Tejada for a former high BA talent, or whatever you want to call it, than scavening the Mariners for everything.

But, is there a disconnect between a FO decision and whether their own people have seen the guy? If it is, I know it's not the end of the world, and plenty of info can be gathered from a trusted source. I would just hope the manpower is out there to give a personal view and opinion. Thanks Tony.

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I get what you mean. It's one thing to unload a Tejada for a former high BA talent, or whatever you want to call it, than scavening the Mariners for everything.

But, is there a disconnect between a FO decision and whether their own people have seen the guy? If it is, I know it's not the end of the world, and plenty of info can be gathered from a trusted source. I would just hope the manpower is out there to give a personal view and opinion. Thanks Tony.

I really don't know who scouted that deal or how they came up with Pelzer for Tejada. Sorry.

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BA has been doing this for a long time and I respect them, but they rely way too heavily off draft status and their previous rankings if you ask me.

I think that the guys at BA would tell you that they rely heavily on the people who are paid to scout players. They try to give readers as close to an industry concensus as they can by talking to scouts inside and outside of each organization to properly gauge how a specific player is being viewed. Only when their own opinions are very strongly different will that change the rankings very much.

Your point about them relying too much on draft status and earlier perceptions on a player, sadly that comes about because it's part of the business of baseball. A high draft status, or a reputatioin that precedes you, will get you attention until you prove you don't deserve it, and the higher the draft status, the longer leash you will be given to try and show what got you that recognition in the first place.

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