Latest Roch ...

[Mackus]

Can we get his brother then?

It took me a minute, but this is quite funny.

[Pushmonkey]

It took me a minute, but this is quite funny.

I mean maybe he is a better player then Adam, or at least better then LH?

[theobird]

If he was the best person available, I'd be fine with him, but he's not. He's a below replacement level player, meaning any random guy you could pull off the waiver wire or out of the Mexican league is very likely to be better. It basically means a better player is out there for free. If Hernandez was a 1 win over replacement player, and it would cost us a decent prospect to acquire a 2-win over replacement player, I'd think that was equally as stupid as not going and getting a replacement-level player to take over for Hernandez and his below-replacement level performance.

Hopefully that makes sense the way I typed it. A handful of wins either way isn't going to change anything for the O's this year, but I think its borderline deceitful to be running a below replacement level player out there every day. I'm fine with rebuilding, but I'm not fine with actively tanking, which is exactly what playing Luis Hernandez everyday is equivalent to, IMO.

To be clear, all I am saying is this: If we could load up on the Bedard/Roberts trades with young guys with some pop then an excellent defensive, no-hit SS would not kill you. If we also get back a good defensive SS who also hits, great.

[TommyD4207]

If he was the best person available, I'd be fine with him, but he's not. He's a below replacement level player, meaning any random guy you could pull off the waiver wire or out of the Mexican league is very likely to be better. It basically means a better player is out there for free. If Hernandez was a 1 win over replacement player, and it would cost us a decent prospect to acquire a 2-win over replacement player, I'd think that was equally as stupid as not going and getting a replacement-level player to take over for Hernandez and his below-replacement level performance.

Hopefully that makes sense the way I typed it. A handful of wins either way isn't going to change anything for the O's this year, but I think its borderline deceitful to be running a below replacement level player out there every day. I'm fine with rebuilding, but I'm not fine with actively tanking, which is exactly what playing Luis Hernandez everyday is equivalent to, IMO.

In his time with the Orioles he was about a 1.62 win player if it were extrapolated to 162 games.

I'm not saying that it's surefire he reaches that, as he was possibly hitting above his head, but you're also not taking into account that his defense wasn't accounted for entirely.

Unless you have his BP stats for his defense all these years sitting in front of you, it's a bit foolish to assume that he's not at least a 1 win player when his defense is accounted for.

I think this "he's above average, nothing else" is a bit short-sighted. People are very ready to say "you can't use stats, small sample size" but then they rely on what THEIR eyes tell them. They ignore what other eyes say.

What we do know is that in 2005, Luis Hernandez was rated by Baseball America as having the best infield arm and having the best infield defense in the Atlanta Braves' system.

From what I saw, I saw a kid that did very, very well defensively. I strongly disagree with the classifications of some in this thread that he's "just above average." I think he could be amongst the best in the game at SS if he was given time to mature, being that he'll only be 23 at the start of the season.

I also am confused at how you're so sure that he's not a 1 win player. Like I said, he was 1.62 win player in his limited time. Sure, his offense will likely go down some, but enough to eliminate .62 wins, nearly half his production? I doubt it. And you're also not taking into account how much effect his defense will have.

But like you and others have said, it's only a matter of opinion. I disagree with you that his defense is better than what many believe, and I disagree that he's not possibly a 1 win player. I do agree with you that if we have to go through the trouble of getting a 2 win player at the expense of anything, that's not very smart.

[Ruzious]

I don't think he's an adequate starting SS, though I loved finally seeing good defense at SS, and I'll be disappointed if he's there on opening day. Otoh, the O's can't get good young players at every position in one offseason, and I don't see much point in them going after a mediocre veteran if they can't find a legit young SS who's ready to play. So, if the choice is getting a 30 plus veteran who'll give you mediocre/average defense and a .650 OPS vs using LH, it'd be a tossup. And that's assuming we don't have to give up anything to get the veteran.

[Mackus]

In his time with the Orioles he was about a 1.62 win player if it were extrapolated to 162 games.

I'm not saying that it's surefire he reaches that, as he was possibly hitting above his head, but you're also not taking into account that his defense wasn't accounted for entirely.

Unless you have his BP stats for his defense all these years sitting in front of you, it's a bit foolish to assume that he's not at least a 1 win player when his defense is accounted for.

I think this "he's above average, nothing else" is a bit short-sighted. People are very ready to say "you can't use stats, small sample size" but then they rely on what THEIR eyes tell them. They ignore what other eyes say.

What we do know is that in 2005, Luis Hernandez was rated by Baseball America as having the best infield arm and having the best infield defense in the Atlanta Braves' system.

From what I saw, I saw a kid that did very, very well defensively. I strongly disagree with the classifications of some in this thread that he's "just above average." I think he could be amongst the best in the game at SS if he was given time to mature, being that he'll only be 23 at the start of the season.

I also am confused at how you're so sure that he's not a 1 win player. Like I said, he was 1.62 win player in his limited time. Sure, his offense will likely go down some, but enough to eliminate .62 wins, nearly half his production? I doubt it. And you're also not taking into account how much effect his defense will have.

But like you and others have said, it's only a matter of opinion. I disagree with you that his defense is better than what many believe, and I disagree that he's not possibly a 1 win player. I do agree with you that if we have to go through the trouble of getting a 2 win player at the expense of anything, that's not very smart.

I do think his defense is very good, but I think his offense is so terribly bad that his glove can't even get him to break even.

I don't know how good a player's defense would have to be to overcome a .550-.575 OPS, but it'd have to be damn near other-worldly. There have only been a handful of seasons where players have had OPS that bad in the past 20 years. I really doubt Hernandez is one of the best defensive SS of the past 20 years, which he would have to be to merit starting all season. Maybe he is, but I doubt it.

I just think starting him is an incredibly lazy move for the FO, since there are many SS out there who can be acquired for nothing more than a ST invite who are better players.

[El Gordo]

I do think his defense is very good, but I think his offense is so terribly bad that his glove can't even get him to break even.

I don't know how good a player's defense would have to be to overcome a .550-.575 OPS, but it'd have to be damn near other-worldly. There have only been a handful of seasons where players have had OPS that bad in the past 20 years. I really doubt Hernandez is one of the best defensive SS of the past 20 years, which he would have to be to merit starting all season. Maybe he is, but I doubt it.

I just think starting him is an incredibly lazy move for the FO, since there are many SS out there who can be acquired for nothing more than a ST invite who are better players.

Have you looked into this? I started going through the BA MiL FA list looking at SS. While I didn't have the time to go through all of them I did notice a pattern. Most of these guys are in their late 20's and have been converted to UT types so they haven't been playing much SS recently. They probqbly aren't as defensively skilled as LH and they seem to be putting up around .700-.750 OPs at AAA.You may find this good D .700 OPS SS in this group, but I doubt they are growing on trees. Tejada may have been declining but he had 10 years ML experience playing the position and he was still about league average defensively. If you want to replace him and can't find a AAAA SS who will give you .800+ OPS then you best find one who has a +glove.

[Mackus]

Have you looked into this? I started going through the BA MiL FA list looking at SS. While I didn't have the time to go through all of them I did notice a pattern. Most of these guys are in their late 20's and have been converted to UT types so they haven't been playing much SS recently. They probqbly aren't as defensively skilled as LH and they seem to be putting up around .700-.750 OPs at AAA.You may find this good D .700 OPS SS in this group, but I doubt they are growing on trees. Tejada may have been declining but he had 10 years ML experience playing the position and he was still about league average defensively. If you want to replace him and can't find a AAAA SS who will give you .800+ OPS then you best find one who has a +glove.

I haven't looked into it, but there certainly will be players on that list that are better combined offensive/defensive players than Hernandez. This should be the type of task that MacPhail hands off to someone else to bring in depth. I don't know why we've been so lazy in terms of bringing in minor league FAs.

And you don't need an 800 OPS or A+ defense. Lets say Hernandez is A defense and a 575 OPS. A 650 OPS and B defense is probably better than Hernandez. A 750 OPS and C (average) defense is probably better as well.

I'll be really disappointed if Hernadez is the starting SS. I agree his defense will be nice to watch, but it won't make up for how much he'll hurt the team with his bat.

[Sports Guy]

Just for fun, here are the lowest OPS over the past 20 years by a player qualified for the batting title:

.512 Alfredo Griffin, SS, 1990.518

Billy Ripken, 2B, 1988

.530 Matt Walbeck, C, 1994

.542 Einar Diaz, C, 2001

.544 Jose Lind, 2B, 1992

.576 Scott Brosius, 3B, 1997

Source It was sorted by position, so there are probably a few other 2B, SS, and C between the .544 and .576, but not many. Hernandez had a .592 OPS at AA and a .546 OPS at AAA last year.

His WARP3 was 1.9....He had a defensive rate of 103 that year...Of course, this is in a totally different era of baseball.(offense wise)

[Sports Guy]

Nick Punto was, I believe, the worst regular last year, posting a 562 OPS...His defense is considered good..His WARP3 was 2.3.

Now, his WARP1, which is apparently the better stat to look at for 1 year was .4...Not even worth a win.

His VORP was -27.

I would expect LH to fall somewhere in between being a replacement player and being 2 wins better.

Either way, starting him is beyond pathetic and it would be a very lazy move by the FO.

[El Gordo]

I haven't looked into it, but there certainly will be players on that list that are better combined offensive/defensive players than Hernandez. This should be the type of task that MacPhail hands off to someone else to bring in depth. I don't know why we've been so lazy in terms of bringing in minor league FAs.

And you don't need an 800 OPS or A+ defense. Lets say Hernandez is A defense and a 575 OPS. A 650 OPS and B defense is probably better than Hernandez. A 750 OPS and C (average) defense is probably better as well.

I'll be really disappointed if Hernadez is the starting SS. I agree his defense will be nice to watch, but it won't make up for how much he'll hurt the team with his bat.

I would be amazed if this hasn't already been done given how thorough MacP seems to be. It would take me about 2 hours to go through the list and target SS possibilities. The problem is, LH, IMO, is an exceptional fielder, one you are not so likely to find on the MiL FA list and no one can say for certain what that value is vis a vis a weak offensive capability. The guys I've seen so far don't project to be a .700 OPS ML hitter. Think about it, a .700 OPS ML hitting + defender SS, would not be someone most teams would be letting go. We let go of a C defender SS because he was declining and we want to build a young team around pitching and defense. Why would we get another C defender to replace him short term who won't put up near his offensive numbers, when we could provide excellent defense short term with LH.

[Mackus]

I would be amazed if this hasn't already been done given how thorough MacP seems to be. It would take me about 2 hours to go through the list and target SS possibilities. The problem is, LH, IMO, is an exceptional fielder, one you are not so likely to find on the MiL FA list and no one can say for certain what that value is vis a vis a weak offensive capability. The guys I've seen so far don't project to be a .700 OPS ML hitter. Think about it, a .700 OPS ML hitting + defender SS, would not be someone most teams would be letting go. We let go of a C defender SS because he was declining and we want to build a young team around pitching and defense. Why would we get another C defender to replace him short term who won't put up near his offensive numbers, when we could provide excellent defense short term with LH.

Judging the defense of these guys is certainly the wildcard. Unless you've scouted them, theres just no way of knowing. I started looking through a few of these guys but got a bit bored. I found that there were about 55-60 minor league FA SS. I looked up some quick numbers on baseball cube for the first 5-6 on my list. The worst hitter of the bunch had averaged about a 675 OPS at AAA. The best was in the mid 800s but was 28 or so. So I think the vast majority of those 55-60 minor league FAs are going to be better hitters than Hernandez, with most of them significantly better. Theres just no real way of knowing who defends well enough to hold down the position without knowing these guys, which is where scouting comes in.

[hoosiers]

I'd be shocked if we did not have a list of the top three to five ML ready SS prospects on other teams (with the potential/requested prospects we would have to give up) and another list with three to five FA SSs. There might also be a third list of quality SS prospects in other organizations who are at least a year away. I'd be disappointed if these lists were not compiled soon after the organization meetings AM hosted after the season.

We may be waiting to see the collection of prospects we receive for EB and BRob before going to another organization with an offer for their SS.

[mikezpen]

That is probably their thinking-that they will pick up a SS in a Roberts or Bedard deal.That mite be what MacPhail's looking from from Chicago in the Roberts trade.

[awalt]

LH will be fine at SS next year if you really consider and appreciate that in true rebuilding mode of a bad team, many playing next year will simply be placeholders until more players emerge through the farm, trade, or FA.

We should be grateful it seems almost a certainty that we have someone for SS who can catch and throw - LH is way better than what we might otherwise have at this stage.