Hangout Poll: Who do you think will be the 5th starter?

[El Gordo]

You still hold with what you wrote above? Because I don't know how McFarland isn't sent back. He had average at best MiL numbers and we haven't caught lightning in a bottle.

Who is saying it's simple? RZ said they are fighting for a job and I agree. Buck had even made comments like,"I have two in pen and two in pencil." He likes competition. And he wants people to earn a spot. Jurrjens hasn't done that, which makes me think Tony is right in one respect. It may be coach speak to a degree. In the sense that no one has taken hold of the spot they may be highlighting JJ to let anyone else know nothing is decided yet.

You made a good point about pitchers working on things with coaches, but Tony brings up another very good point about the walk to K ratio. The thing is, JJ is all over the place right now. One day he gets lit up, the next he looks good for a couple then falls apart at the end. Remember his previous outing before yesterday he said he had picked up some bad habits off and on while he was injured? It's very hard to lose those over ST and make your delivery repeatable again. It's enough right now that he makes continued progress, but I wouldn't read too much into Buck and Adair's comments. It may be encouragement and nothing more.

Thinking it's just a matter of them going out and pitching the best they can and let the best man win is simple. It's not a straight competition. There are many factors including who has options, injury, track record, salary, etc. Right now no one seems to have taken the lead in nailing down the job. And it is still too early really .

[Il BuonO]

Thinking it's just a matter of them going out and pitching the best they can and let the best man win is simple. It's not a straight competition. There are many factors including who has options, injury, track record, salary, etc. Right now no one seems to have taken the lead in nailing down the job. And it is still too early really .

Well, you didn't answer the question from above, but lets think about it. Those considerations are in play yes, but minus performance? So, McFarland continues to gives up hits to ST roster players and were supposed to keep him. Why? Matusz looks good at times but mainly gets out LHB. You are sending him to the pen right? Why would send him down unless McFarland dramatically turns it around. You see that happening? You might be the only one.

You downplaying performance is simplistic. We know who has options and who doesn't. Who is fighting to come back from injuries and who isn't. Those things will be helpful IF all things are equal, but performance will be the determining factor in the end.

And track record? Seriously? Who among them has a ML track record?

[DrungoHazewood]

You downplaying performance is simplistic. We know who has options and who doesn't. Who is fighting to come back from injuries and who isn't. Those things will be helpful IF all things are equal, but performance will be the determining factor in the end.

I tend to agree with Gordo in this case. Spring Training performance is of almost no consequence except in the most extreme cases. I understand a 12.00 ERA or a .450 batting average will stick in the back of a coach's mind, but they know results are far less important in this context than the underlying skills and tools. Sure, if two guys are competing for the same job and one hits .500 and the other hits .143 the chances are the guy hitting .500 will make the team. But it's usually not that clear, and the team will pick the guy with the track record and scouting/analysis that suggests better performance going forward.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Well, you didn't answer the question from above, but lets think about it. Those considerations are in play yes, but minus performance? So, McFarland continues to gives up hits to ST roster players and were supposed to keep him. Why? Matusz looks good at times but mainly gets out LHB. You are sending him to the pen right? Why would send him down unless McFarland dramatically turns it around. You see that happening? You might be the only one.

You downplaying performance is simplistic. We know who has options and who doesn't. Who is fighting to come back from injuries and who isn't. Those things will be helpful IF all things are equal, but performance will be the determining factor in the end.

And track record? Seriously? Who among them has a ML track record?

Yeah I agree with what you're saying, JJ is really the only one with any track record to speak of. I really don't see him making the team considering some of the comments about his physical situation. The fact that guys have options and/or can be moved to the BP means to me there is some real competition for the 5th spot. Right now I'd consider Steve Johnson making a pretty clear case for himself. Still to early though and most of it will be based on who is pitching well at the end of ST, not who pitcced well for the entirity of it.

[Tony-OH]

Of course, it's too early to draw conclusions but it's never too early to talk about and speculate. I really thought Britton and Matusz would have strong springs, from beginning to end. One thing I don't get about Matusz. He had all his success pitching from the stretch in September and now he's gone back to a windup. Why mess with what worked? The early reports on Britton was that he was the most impressive looking pitching in camp, early, and he's supposedly feeling great. Yesterday's outing against inferior competition was very disappointing.

It was, and more importantly, the reports say he was only hitting 89 MPH. Let's just hope it's a bit of an early dead arm period.

[Crazysilver03]

It will be interesting to see what happens if no one steps it up.

With the way DD operates, I wonder if they could/would consider keeping 2 candidates for the spot for the first time through the rotation and then option one (or both) after the game since we don't need the 5th starter for like 7 days.

[El Gordo]

Well, you didn't answer the question from above, but lets think about it. Those considerations are in play yes, but minus performance? So, McFarland continues to gives up hits to ST roster players and were supposed to keep him. Why? Matusz looks good at times but mainly gets out LHB. You are sending him to the pen right? Why would send him down unless McFarland dramatically turns it around. You see that happening? You might be the only one.

You downplaying performance is simplistic. We know who has options and who doesn't. Who is fighting to come back from injuries and who isn't. Those things will be helpful IF all things are equal, but performance will be the determining factor in the end.

And track record? Seriously? Who among them has a ML track record?

Saying there are factors involved other than straight performance competition, is not to down play performance. Don't mischaracterize what I am saying. Here is a case in point. JJ's numbers haven't been as good as S.Johnson's to this point. But he has a track record of a much higher level of performance. If his knee looks strong and he is pushing off well, and hitting 92-93 consistently, the fact that his command is a bit ragged at this point or his mechanics are off, is not much of a concern. We know from his history that he has good command and mechanics when he is healthy. So by the end of ST, though Johnson might have better numbers, if JJ has shown steady improvement, especially regarding his knee strength, don't be surprised if he gets the nod over Johnson.

[El Gordo]

It will be interesting to see what happens if no one steps it up.

With the way DD operates, I wonder if they could/would consider keeping 2 candidates for the spot for the first time through the rotation and then option one (or both) after the game since we don't need the 5th starter for like 7 days.

If no one takes the job I wouldn't be surprised to see a trade.

[Il BuonO]

I tend to agree with Gordo in this case. Spring Training performance is of almost no consequence except in the most extreme cases. I understand a 12.00 ERA or a .450 batting average will stick in the back of a coach's mind, but they know results are far less important in this context than the underlying skills and tools. Sure, if two guys are competing for the same job and one hits .500 and the other hits .143 the chances are the guy hitting .500 will make the team. But it's usually not that clear, and the team will pick the guy with the track record and scouting/analysis that suggests better performance going forward.

You agree with him about what? Because I agree that things being equal scouting and analysis will be a better predictor of future success than any performance in ST. Say with Britton and Johnson. Gordo never mentioned that though. And he still never answered my question about McFarland.

Lets stay with your example. If it comes down to it and Johnson has performed slightly better than Britton at the end of ST I get that they might go with him based on having higher upside.

Saying there are factors involved other than straight performance competition, is not to down play performance. Don't mischaracterize what I am saying. Here is a case in point. JJ's numbers haven't been as good as S.Johnson's to this point. But he has a track record of a much higher level of performance. If his knee looks strong and he is pushing off well, and hitting 92-93 consistently, the fact that his command is a bit ragged at this point or his mechanics are off, is not much of a concern. We know from his history that he has good command and mechanics when he is healthy. So by the end of ST, though Johnson might have better numbers, if JJ has shown steady improvement, especially regarding his knee strength, don't be surprised if he gets the nod over Johnson.

Comparing him to Jurrjens based on his track record and minimizing the injury history is a misleading. IF HIS KNEE is healthy and pushing off well? That's a pretty weak basis for an argument.

Again, these can't be minimized.

If he can be healthy....

If he can command his pitches....

If he can consistently hit 90-91, let alone 92-93 it won't happen right away.

If he can straighten out his mechanics....

Lot of ifs there.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Again, these can't be minimized.

If he can be healthy....

If he can command his pitches....

If he can consistently hit 90-91, let alone 92-93 it won't happen right away.

If he can straighten out his mechanics....

Lot of ifs there.

Yep and IF JJ had a major league contract the situation might be different. He does not. He probably has more of a burden than some others with much less of a track record imo.

On a side note, I'm not to quite as down on McFarland as you are. I know the results aren't good, but I can see why they like him. He looks like he can be tough to square up when he executes.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Jake Arrieta is tough to square up when he executes. Steve Johnson is tough to square up when he executes. I saw one of McFarland's pitches sink and fall right off the table. It was a beautiful thing. It's all about how often you can do something at the ML level. McFarland won in AAA and obviously had his moments. I really think that's where he belongs this year. If they want to hide McFarland as the long man I don't think it's a big deal. I just don't think he's ready to be a real contributor at the ML level this year.

Sure. I don't disagree with any of that. Obviously, McFarland is a long shot. I'm just seeing some things that I like with his stuff along with his track record (bb rate/low HR rate etc.). As far as comparing inconsistencies with Arrieta, I just don't know enough about his track record like I do with Jake. Pretty different pitchers/styles also.

[Il BuonO]

Jake Arrieta is tough to square up when he executes. Steve Johnson is tough to square up when he executes. I saw one of McFarland's pitches sink and fall right off the table. It was a beautiful thing. It's all about how often you can do something at the ML level. McFarland won in AAA and obviously had his moments. I really think that's where he belongs this year. If they want to hide McFarland as the long man I don't think it's a big deal. I just don't think he's ready to be a real contributor at the ML level this year.

I'm glad you said he really belongs in AAA because I agree with that. I most definitely agree with the last line.

Sure. I don't disagree with any of that. Obviously, McFarland is a long shot. I'm just seeing some things that I like with his stuff along with his track record (bb rate/low HR rate etc.). As far as comparing inconsistencies with Arrieta, I just don't know enough about his track record like I do with Jake. Pretty different pitchers/styles also.

First off, I wouldn't say I'm down on McFarland, but usually people around here point to a guys numbers at the lower levels as an indicator to future performance. And I was trying to elicit a response to a comment from early in this thread that never was answered basically saying McFarland had a spot on this team.

Here are some numbers:

At AAA Columbus

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table]

<tbody>[TR]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: left]Year[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]Age[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc show_partial_when_sorting, align: center]Tm[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: center]Lg[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: center]Lev[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc, align: center]Aff[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]W[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]L[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]<nobr>W-L%</nobr>[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center]ERA[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]G[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]GS[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]GF[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]CG[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SHO[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SV[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]IP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]H[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]R[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]ER[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HR[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]BB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]IBB[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]SO[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]HBP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]BK[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]WP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip, align: center]BF[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center]WHIP[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center]H/9[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center]HR/9[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip sort_default_asc hide_non_quals, align: center]BB/9[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]SO/9[/TH]

[TH=class: tooltip hide_non_quals, align: center]SO/BB[/TH]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table]

<tbody>[TR=class: partial_table]

[TD]2012[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD]Columbus[/TD]

[TD]IL[/TD]

[TD]AAA[/TD]

[TD]CLE[/TD]

[TD=align: right]8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right].571[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.82[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: right]17[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]102.2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]112[/TD]

[TD=align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]55[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]435[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.412[/TD]

[TD=align: right]9.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2.9[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4.8[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.67[/TD]

[/TR]

</tbody>[/TABLE]

So, that's 112 hits in only 102 2/3 innings pitched and almost 3 BB per 9. When your SO to BB ratio isn't even 2 to 1 that's not good. And there's nothing in those numbers that stands out. He may have had his moments, but so did Jake vs the Yankees last year.

That said, I watched him yesterday and I admit that a couple of those sinkers did drop off the table. They were both taken for balls. I feel meh about McFarland. Certainly not enough feeling to 'hide' him on the roster.

Part of Flaherty's value last year, at least my understanding of it for Buck, was that he could play so many positions. People are just starting to come around to him and I don't know if he ever hits enough over the long term, it remains to be seen.

McFarland is not starter material at the ML level right now and he's taking up a roster spot from somebody in the pen. If they decide to trade him for someone like Avery I'd be fine with that. I don't see it happening though.

[Dodobirds]

Steve Johnson earned the spot late last season, & I see NOTHING this spring to make me think anyone has leapfrogged him.

Give the nod to the invisiball.

[CA-ORIOLE]

First off, I wouldn't say I'm down on McFarland ....

I just went off this quote below.

So, McFarland continues to gives up hits to ST roster players and were supposed to keep him. Why? Matusz looks good at times but mainly gets out LHB. You are sending him to the pen right? Why would send him down unless McFarland dramatically turns it around. You see that happening? You might be the only one.

but usually people around here point to a guys numbers at the lower levels as an indicator to future performance. And I was trying to elicit a response to a comment from early in this thread that never was answered basically saying McFarland had a spot on this team. Here are some numbers: So, that's 112 hits in only 102 2/3 innings pitched and almost 3 BB per 9. When your SO to BB ratio isn't even 2 to 1 that's not good. And there's nothing in those numbers that stands out.

I looked at the stats before I commented on them. I tend to look at sinkerballers numbers a little differently. Particularly a guy that doesn't give up HR's and could theoretically improve with a good IF defense. A 3/9 walk rate is pretty good for a sinkerballer imo. While you'd always like a K rate 2/1 or higher, it's pretty acceptable for a sinkerballer imo.

That said, I watched him yesterday and I admit that a couple of those sinkers did drop off the table. They were both taken for balls

I'd pretty much have the same concern for any sinkerballer. Not an easy gig. Particulary one transitioning from the minors to the majors.

. I feel meh about McFarland. Certainly not enough feeling to 'hide' him on the roster.

I probably haven't seen enough (and probably won't) to make an informed opinion yet. Just that I understand why they might see something in him. He might be one injury away (Matusz or Patton from making the roster though). My initial impression is that I like the way he drops down, I like his stuff, and he looks pretty hard to square up. He looks like a guy with an easy motion that could maintain his release point and be tough on both RHB's and LHB's.

Part of Flaherty's value last year, at least my understanding of it for Buck, was that he could play so many positions.

Ehh, Flaherty was pretty much buried most of the season last year.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Any thoughts on Matusz's outing yesterday? Two scoreless.. He's the guy I am rooting for as fifth starter. Lots of upside if he's right.