Jump to content

New Fangraphs Feature: Depth Charts


Can_of_corn

Recommended Posts

Is this based on last season"s stats?

I have been looking at it for about 30 seconds before I posted the info. It says updated daily so it has to be using this year's data in some way.

BTW DC corrected me on twitter, the O's charts don't look as bad as I thought at first. For instance the Machado -.4 Bat is compared to league average not replacement level.

Edit- These forecasts remind me of the RS/RA power rankings ESPN tried last year.

Fun to look at tho.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Current year's production doesn't get a ton of weight because the sample size is small.

Since the O's were projected by the computer systems to have about 73 wins before the season started, a 62-66 record over the rest of it is actually a significant improvement.

Not to mention that these projections have the O's tied with the A's for the 2nd wild card.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 weeks into the season doesn't seem to have phased the predictors one bit. :rolleyes:

There's a difference between not overreacting to one month's worth of sample size and ignoring it completely. For instance, they have JJ at only 0.6 WAR to finish the season when he already has 0.5 WAR now and finished 2012 and 2011 with 1.2 and 1.4 WAR respectively.

Head scratching...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 weeks into the season doesn't seem to have phased the predictors one bit. :rolleyes:

There's a difference between not overreacting to one month's worth of sample size and ignoring it completely. For instance, they have JJ at only 0.6 WAR to finish the season when he already has 0.5 WAR now and finished 2012 and 2011 with 1.2 and 1.4 WAR respectively.

Head scratching...

The model they use loves strikeouts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One fun thing to do with the projected standing is to see when the click over to a different projected record.

When this thread was created three days ago, the O's had a projected record of 83-79. Neither the win on Fri nor the loss on Sat changed that - we might say that the O's got an "expected" result in both games. But with the win on Sun, their projected record is now 84-78 - we could say that the O's won a game that they weren't predicted too.

Of course, making this claim requires that there's significant change from day to day, and that we haven't just hit a rounding point that will make things toggle between 83/84 for a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.



  • Posts

    • He's also brought in a bunch of guys that are castoffs that didn't do much at all for the O's. I'd say it's been a pretty mixed bag.  Of course a couple hits go a long way when you are shifting through chaff.
    • Hyde shouldn't get it to begin with
    • Its funny because the pushed the wall back to oblivion and decided to build a left handed heavy team
    • Agreed, management couldn't care less about winning this year. I happen to think it's a BIG mistake. Nothing is guaranteed year from year. Players can regress, the chemistry might not be there, the division may be stronger, etc. Even with twice the payroll. I think he should at a minimum leave the team intact. Did they really accomplish that much with those trades? Anyway, this is just a fan speaking. They make the big bucks to make these decisions, right?  
    • Clearly Stowers for one, which is the one I was responding about from your prior post.  In his career he's hit lefties better than rights.  Of course most of that is minor league numbers as he's gotten very little chances in MLB unfortunately.   As to the others, when you are comparing them to Aguilar, does it really matter?  So far this year against lefties, Aguilar has a .562 OPS.  That really sucks.  Henderson is hitting .488 in the majors in very few opportunities (only 19 PA) and hit .502 in AAA.  So a bit worse.  Vavra, again SS, is hitting .661, against lefties, or over 100 points better than Aguilar.  Even Mullins, who is WAY worse against lefties this year than last, is still hitting .581 against them.  Point being Aguilar should not start at DH against lefties if Stowers, Vavra or Mullins are available, and I'd honestly rather see Henderson get the experience with a slightly worse OPS as that will pay off down the road I believe.  The only time Aguilar should reasonably start is to spell Mountcastle at first, and I'd personally rather see Stowers taking the spot if at all possible instead.  As to the other 'regulars' that should be on the bench, Odor is hitting .593 against lefties, so worse than Vavra (I know SS, but no other way to get a bit sample size than to let it happen). In the end I don't think that Odor or Aguilar should get another PA unless we have an injury of some sorts, a guy is banged up, or something unforeseen happens.  Let the kids play the rest of the way, and they should have been doing so a while ago.  
    • Losing 6 of the last 8 to Boston to lose the season series was the worst to me.  Another reminder that our division still owns us.  
    • Good list. You have to beat the teams you are supposed to beat.
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...