New Fangraphs Feature: Depth Charts

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-fangraphs-depth-charts-and-standings/

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

Yes the numbers for the O's seem extremely pessimistic.

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-fangraphs-depth-charts-and-standings/

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

Yes the numbers for the O's seem extremely pessimistic.

Is this based on last season"s stats?

[Can_of_corn]

Is this based on last season"s stats?

I have been looking at it for about 30 seconds before I posted the info. It says updated daily so it has to be using this year's data in some way.

BTW DC corrected me on twitter, the O's charts don't look as bad as I thought at first. For instance the Machado -.4 Bat is compared to league average not replacement level.

Edit- These forecasts remind me of the RS/RA power rankings ESPN tried last year.

Fun to look at tho.

[skanar]

Current year's production doesn't get a ton of weight because the sample size is small.

Since the O's were projected by the computer systems to have about 73 wins before the season started, a 62-66 record over the rest of it is actually a significant improvement.

Not to mention that these projections have the O's tied with the A's for the 2nd wild card.

[isestrex]

5 weeks into the season doesn't seem to have phased the predictors one bit.

There's a difference between not overreacting to one month's worth of sample size and ignoring it completely. For instance, they have JJ at only 0.6 WAR to finish the season when he already has 0.5 WAR now and finished 2012 and 2011 with 1.2 and 1.4 WAR respectively.

Head scratching...

[Can_of_corn]

5 weeks into the season doesn't seem to have phased the predictors one bit.

There's a difference between not overreacting to one month's worth of sample size and ignoring it completely. For instance, they have JJ at only 0.6 WAR to finish the season when he already has 0.5 WAR now and finished 2012 and 2011 with 1.2 and 1.4 WAR respectively.

Head scratching...

The model they use loves strikeouts.

[isestrex]

The model they use loves strikeouts.

I was talking about WAR... their own system. 1.4 WAR in 2011, 1.4 WAR in 2012... already 0.5 WAR and they think he'll max out at 0.6.

[skanar]

One fun thing to do with the projected standing is to see when the click over to a different projected record.

When this thread was created three days ago, the O's had a projected record of 83-79. Neither the win on Fri nor the loss on Sat changed that - we might say that the O's got an "expected" result in both games. But with the win on Sun, their projected record is now 84-78 - we could say that the O's won a game that they weren't predicted too.

Of course, making this claim requires that there's significant change from day to day, and that we haven't just hit a rounding point that will make things toggle between 83/84 for a while.