Could Tillman be the Orioles 1st 20 Game Winner in a long time?

[Roll Tide]

With all the talk lately about the good starts by Chen & Gonzalez Tilly quietly keep winning. He's 8-1 in his last 10 starts. Certainly not a sure thing but he's got a shot.

Thoughts?

[Frobby]

Getting to 20 will be a challenge, but he has a shot.

Perhaps more attainable: no Oriole starter has won more than 15 games since Mike Mussina in 1999. No Oriole has won more than 12 since Erik Bedard in 2007 (and Chen is the only one who even reached 12 in the last 5 years). How pathetic is that? Tillman has a good chance to end those streaks if he stays healthy.

[weams]

He is physically fit enough to throw 125 pitches every five days. That is a big part of it.

[eb45]

where is the "pitcher wins need to die already" option

[DrungoHazewood]

where is the "pitcher wins need to die already" option

I don't mind if the Orioles also impress 83-year-olds.

[Frobby]

Whatever else you want to say, wins are a fun stat. It takes an interesting combination of skill and luck. Tillman has already won as many games this year as Jeremy Guthrie ever won in a full season for us, even though Guthrie had several good years from an ERA and IP standpoint. Hammel could win 12-14 games even though he's been pretty bad this year.

[mdbdotcom]

Maybe one day there will be an Alt WS based on peripherals. Or, maybe they'll just leave it as a video game.

[DrungoHazewood]

Maybe one day there will be an Alt WS based on peripherals. Or, maybe they'll just leave it as a video game.

Are you actually defending pitcher wins? We could start a 178-page thread just listing games where the win was assigned to the pitcher who performed worst in that game.

[murph]

Are you actually defending pitcher wins? We could start a 178-page thread just listing games where the win was assigned to the pitcher who performed worst in that game.

I am not trying to defend the stat, obviously it is meaningless in many cases, but throughout history, typically the best pitcher(s) on a team ended up with the most wins and I for one, will definitely be rooting for Tillman to get 20. Like Frobby said, it is a fun stat and I really want to see another Oriole achieve that "goal".

[TonySoprano]

Assuming he pitches the entire rest of the season, Tillman would have to win 9 of the 13 starts that he has remaining (69.2%). He has won 11 of his first 19 (57.9%). At his current average of innings/start, he'd end up around 188.

[mdbdotcom]

Are you actually defending pitcher wins? We could start a 178-page thread just listing games where the win was assigned to the pitcher who performed worst in that game.

I don't defend stats. They are just reports of measurement. Jack Morris says wins matter. That's enough for me. I am defending Jack Morris.

[backwardsk]

It was about a year and a week ago when Tillman made his 2012 debut after being written off as another starter the Orioles failed to develop. Who'd a thunk we'd be talking about him winning 20 games.

Heaven forbid people get excited about it.

[tntoriole]

Getting to 20 will be a challenge, but he has a shot.

Perhaps more attainable: no Oriole starter has won more than 15 games since Mike Mussina in 1999. No Oriole has won more than 12 since Erik Bedard in 2007 (and Chen is the only one who even reached 12 in the last 5 years). How pathetic is that? Tillman has a good chance to end those streaks if he stays healthy.

This makes me feel old. I grew up with Palmer, McNally, Cuellar, etc. and the year they had four twenty game winners I believe to be the record least likely in all of baseball to ever be broken.

[Pickles]

Anybody else find it more than ironic, but some of the usual "stats guys" suspects are here to crap on pitcher W's?

I mean, if it was a stat that told me that Carlos Lee was the greatest defensive 1b of all time then we'd be told that we need to evaluate a larger sample size. Or we'd be told it was only a tool, and we need to know how to "evaluate" it properly within "context."

Well, aren't those both very true of pitcher's Ws as well?

Sometimes I wish I was a baseball hipster. Then I could feel so superior too.

[mark_beckens]

Well, he's got 11 wins in 19 starts, if he stays healthy he'll get probably 13 more starts, so 9 wins in 13 starts, yeah he could do it.