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Could Tillman be the Orioles 1st 20 Game Winner in a long time?


Roll Tide

Will Tillman Win 20 this year?  

82 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Tillman Win 20 this year?

    • Yes he Will!
    • Possibly he has a good chance
    • Chances are small he'd make it
    • No way


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You don't have to change the win rule.

You simply have to know how to evaluate it within its proper context, and its limitations.

It isn't that hard to figure out.

As much as we try to do that the guy credited with 22 wins is probably going to win the Cy Young award even if someone else credited with 16 wins pitched a bit better.

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It was a great day when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young despite not leading the league in being on the mound at the end of the half inning prior to when his team took the lead and then held onto it.

I haven't seen anyone on here saying Tillman should be a CY candidate if he gets to 20. Some are just excited for the guy to hit the milestone as it hasn't happened on this team in decades. It's a reflection on how far he's come since his early struggles and how far this team has come.

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My idea is to simply direct the official scorer to give the win to the pitcher he deems to have pitched best on the winning team. So if you win in 18 but the starter threw 7 innings of 1-run ball he could get the win.

or you could just go with something like giving the win to the pitcher with the highest WPA on the winning team and the loss to the pitcher with the lowest WPA on the losing team. or maybe RE24 or something. whatever it is, it'd be way better than what we have now.

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My idea is to simply direct the official scorer to give the win to the pitcher he deems to have pitched best on the winning team. So if you win in 18 but the starter threw 7 innings of 1-run ball he could get the win.

or you could just go with something like giving the win to the pitcher with the highest WPA on the winning team and the loss to the pitcher with the lowest WPA on the losing team. or maybe RE24 or something. whatever it is, it'd be way better than what we have now.

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That would certainly be better than the status quo. We don't say Joe Flacco was 11-5, do we? Or that LeBron was 56-22? So why do we take the contributions of an entire team and give credit for the win to a guy who may not have been responsible for 1/3rd of the credit?

Well actually you do hear about quarterback's postseason records a lot.

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Well actually you do hear about quarterback's postseason records a lot.

And LeBron James is widely being referred to as having "2 rings" and before that, he was referred to has having no rings and that that was something that dragged him down.

Many believe that Joe Flacco got the contract that he did because the Ravens won the Super Bowl.

Peyton Manning was viewed as being inferior for his team not having won a Super Bowl until they did.

So yeah, players in other sports absolutely do get credit and blame for their whole team's performances.

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This makes me feel old. I grew up with Palmer, McNally, Cuellar, etc. and the year they had four twenty game winners I believe to be the record least likely in all of baseball to ever be broken.

Cy Young says Hello

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The best context to evaluate pitcher wins is to discard them and use one of the many other commonly available metrics that have vastly higher correlations to quality of performance.

I think Wins are about as useful as RBIs and to a lesser extend even Batting average for a hitter. All have some use but are very limited. However over a long career I think they all have more value.

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