Jen Royle: Orioles open to trading Valencia ( Traded to KC for OF David Lough)

[Tx Oriole]

Duquette's thoughts (as posted by the Don, above) all make sense except for this... Almanzar has a career .721 minor league OPS vs LHP (.700 vs RHP). It was .822 last season, so that's something I guess. But we're talking about AA pitching. Valencia's a career .879 hitter vs MLB LHP. Almanzar is simply not going to replace Valencia's production next season. No way.

I am for waiting and seeing what happens. I don't want to condemn this move

before we can see how it works out.

[TradeAngelos]

On the surface, if you believe in WAR, this is an outstanding trade, IMO.

If there is a DD pattern with these cheaper acquisitions, it is to pick up guys entering their age 26, 27, 28 year old seasons when they are at peak production and cheap and possibly league average or slightly better or much better.

Taking chances on guys producing 2.7 WAR in 335 at-bats going into their age 28 season is something I support 100%. If Lough can make some adjustments and pick up the obp into the .320-.325 area and get his ops closer to .800, there could be some strong value here. Anything over 2 WAR as an everyday player for Lough at the league minimum in 2014 would be outstanding and the results of 2013 indicate a player capable of 3-4 WAR (thanks to the defense).

Hopefully, our scouts are right on Almanzar as well.

To pick up Valencia for cash considerations and turn him into Lough is really something.

I really like this move for what we gave up, what we receive and the opening created for Almanzar (assuming Lough can repeat the 2013 defensive numbers).

You "take a chance" on these guys as back ups who you hope play their way into a starting role and develop.

You don't bring them in and hand them an everyday job and say a prayer that everything works out, if you want to contend for anything above a 4th or 5th place finish in the division.

This is yet another move that would be fine for a rebuilding team, but is an absolute JOKE for an alleged "contender". In the AL East.

[Yardball85]

I could live with a Lough/Peguero platoon in LF , and a Urrutia/Pearce platoon at DH.

Why?

I like the move if Lough is our fourth OF. Otherwise, I would have just kept DV.

[Guest]

I could live with a Lough/Peguero platoon in LF , and a Urrutia/Pearce platoon at DH.

[gfrank]

I'm actually rather impressed that DD was able to get a piece this potentially valuable for Valencia. The guy has about as many question marks as Valencia had ultimately, but with this many tools Lough has quite a bit more upside. And if nothing else, defense doesn't vanish as easily as hitting ability does so worst case scenario you have a solid defender to use as your 4th outfielder. We suddenly have an even more gaping void at DH now, but I'm ok with seeing this team go into spring seeing if they can squeeze a starting left fielder out of Peguero/Reimold/Pearce/Lough. Assuming Lough's defense doesn't regress inexplicably I don't think it would be a stretch to think that this could really work out.

Fun stats: Fangraphs actually had his outfield UZR last year at 14.5, good for 9th best in the major leagues. That's actually pretty noteworthy as the guy only played 90 games, so with that UZR average would have been top 3 in the majors over 162 games last year. Granted, UZR is a bit of a funky stat, it can be aberrational, but this is still really encouraging stuff. All the numbers suggest Lough had an elite year defensively with decent offensive numbers. Not a bad consolation prize for seeing them sit out the Choo sweepstakes.

[25 Nuggets]

Translation, we don't have many marbles left, so deal with it.

[video=youtube;GWH0BHS0m04]

[atomic]

You "take a chance" on these guys as back ups who you hope play their way into a starting role and develop.

You don't bring them in and hand them an everyday job and say a prayer that everything works out, if you want to contend for anything above a 4th or 5th place finish in the division.

This is yet another move that would be fine for a rebuilding team, but is an absolute JOKE for an alleged "contender". In the AL East.

Would you rather us pay 10 million to get a lesser player?

[hoosiers]

You "take a chance" on these guys as back ups who you hope play their way into a starting role and develop.

You don't bring them in and hand them an everyday job and say a prayer that everything works out, if you want to contend for anything above a 4th or 5th place finish in the division.

This is yet another move that would be fine for a rebuilding team, but is an absolute JOKE for an alleged "contender". In the AL East.

The Os aren't going to have guys making $5M at every position. We have to take a chance on some $1M and minimum wage guys somewhere. This guy has a pretty good resume.

He might flop or he might become a late bloomer like Luke Scott.

If you think it is a joke for the AL East, maybe you should look up Ichiro Suzuki's numbers last year over 555 PAs and $6.5M. Every team, including those in the ALEast, take chances on guys like Lough.

[weams]

On the surface, if you believe in WAR, this is an outstanding trade, IMO.

If there is a DD pattern with these cheaper acquisitions, it is to pick up guys entering their age 26, 27, 28 year old seasons when they are at peak production and cheap and possibly league average or slightly better or much better.

Taking chances on guys producing 2.7 WAR in 335 at-bats going into their age 28 season is something I support 100%. If Lough can make some adjustments and pick up the obp into the .320-.325 area and get his ops closer to .800, there could be some strong value here. Anything over 2 WAR as an everyday player for Lough at the league minimum in 2014 would be outstanding and the results of 2013 indicate a player capable of 3-4 WAR (thanks to the defense).

Hopefully, our scouts are right on Almanzar as well.

To pick up Valencia for cash considerations and turn him into Lough is really something.

I really like this move for what we gave up, what we receive and the opening created for Almanzar (assuming Lough can repeat the 2013 defensive numbers).

KC. Has. Two Right Handed DH only players.

That is all.

[Tx Oriole]

I'm rethinking this move i like it. But this team still needs a bat bad.

Birdland I believe there will still be some trades made. For DH.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Urrutia/Pearce at DH would be bad. No way around it, that combination is extremely unlikely to produce more than 0.5-1 win at the DH spot and if Urrutia doesn't adjust to major league pitching we'd be looking at another season of at-or-below replacement level DHs. There has gotta be a way to bring in a cheap option at DH that is more reliable than that, even if we don't want to give up a pick on Morales.

However, Lough and one of Pearce/Reimold/Peguero in LF would not be bad. Not ideal, but not bad. Let's not group them together, ok?

[centralpaosfan]

Should this kid progress on his numbers, it gives DD a chance to buy Lough and sell high.

Love this move BTW.

[weams]

You "take a chance" on these guys as back ups who you hope play their way into a starting role and develop.

You don't bring them in and hand them an everyday job and say a prayer that everything works out, if you want to contend for anything above a 4th or 5th place finish in the division.

This is yet another move that would be fine for a rebuilding team, but is an absolute JOKE for an alleged "contender". In the AL East.

Wil Myers led the league in Rookie WAR for fangraphs last season. Tied with our new left fielder.

BP had our guy way ahead. As a rookie In WAR. AL rookies. Our guy.

[Tx Oriole]

80 win team next year if that. Winning teams don't do this.

I thought you were rethinking this deal. I see you didn't. That is okay. I just think

you are wrong on this. IMO

[mdbdotcom]

KC. Has. Two Right Handed DH only players.

That is all.

Mike Moustakas had a horrible year with the bat. KC probably sees DV as a potential starter at 3B, as he was in Minnesota.