Jen Royle: Orioles open to trading Valencia ( Traded to KC for OF David Lough)

[hoosiers]

DD has said that Lough replaces McLouth so there's your LF and since he doesn't appear to have significant platoon splits, I think it can safely be assumed that he's going to be the everyday LF more or less. Also, Reimold will almost certainly make the OD roster if he appears to be healthy(regardless of his production during ST) so Pearce will likely start the year in Norfolk. DD has raved about Urrutia and Peguero so both are likely to make the team out of the gate(I don't think DD will risk losing Peguero by trying to pass him through waivers). So now we have a 25 man roster that includes 6 OFs- Jones, Markakis, Lough, Reimold, Urrutia, and Peguero.

Where you see a problem with the 6 OFers, I think DD sees options. Remember, we don't just need a LF - now presumably filled by Lough, we may need a RF pretty quickly. I hope this organization does not give Nick even 200 ABs if he is going to stink up the joint again. At some point near when the rosters are set, I do expect DD to move Peguero through waivers.

I am comfortable with the lineup with Lough. There are question marks (Machado healthy, 2B and Davis repeating, Lough), but there is upside (Wieters and Markakis rebounding).

I am comfortable with where the team is right now.

Hopefully, DD puts some cash to work for either a good SP option at anywhere from the 2-4 or a more established OF bat. I am not as on board as everyone else with pursuing Garza to a large multi-year contract based on recent WAR numbers.

[Moose Milligan]

Choo is a mathematical superstar. He will never approach the OBP that he had last season. And in ANY crucial at bat in the AL after the fifth inning, he will be completely neutralized. And if he leans in to pitches, they will learn to more than plunk him. And one of these times it will cost him a season.

Eh, I dunno good buddy. He might not get as high as .423 again, but I think he could be a .375-.400 guy for the next few seasons, which would be really nice for a team like us who is OBP starved. Now he is headed into his age 31 season so I'd be wary of the years on the contract and you know some team (not us) is going to give him a ridiculous 6 or 7 year deal.

I'm not sure where you get the notion that he'd be neutralized in important situations after the 5th inning. Late and close for his career he's .299/.416/.432. 2 out and RISP he's .287/.425/.439.

[Capn Vivi]

Eh, I dunno good buddy. He might not get as high as .423 again, but I think he could be a .375-.400 guy for the next few seasons, which would be really nice for a team like us who is OBP starved. Now he is headed into his age 31 season so I'd be wary of the years on the contract and you know some team (not us) is going to give him a ridiculous 6 or 7 year deal.

I'm not sure where you get the notion that he'd be neutralized in important situations after the 5th inning. Late and close for his career he's .299/.416/.432. 2 out and RISP he's .287/.425/.439.

I believe Weams is referring to his .215/.347/.265/.612 line in 2013 against lefties (It's .243/.340/.341/.680 for his career). And that’s worse against lefty relievers.

Bringing a LOOGY in to face Choo is as close to neutralizing a future $20m player as you can get.

[Moose Milligan]

I believe Weams is referring to his .215/.347/.265/.612 line in 2013 against lefties (It's .243/.340/.341/.680 for his career). And that’s worse against lefty relievers.

Bringing a LOOGY in to face Choo is as close to neutralizing a future $20m player as you can get.

Ah, right. Should have deducted that for myself.

Excellent call, guys. Makes a lot of sense.

[Guest]

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[BillySmith]

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Couple gamers with him and Balfour. Seems like O's dudes to me.

[tilgaham]

Very, very happy with this move. We get a great young fielder who plays average offense for the league minimum. Better yet, DD now has 12-20MM (depending on how many "marbles" he has) to sign a SP and figure out the DH spot. That's great!

If we can somehow sign a good SP and a DH, I'll be ecstatic.

[hoosiers]

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=281&f=2054&t=12490596 Royal fans love it. Lough wasn't making the team in 2014.

They love their Maxwell. It would be an interesting bet to see who has the better WAR in 2014 - Lough or Maxwell.

[weams]

Eh, I dunno good buddy. He might not get as high as .423 again, but I think he could be a .375-.400 guy for the next few seasons, which would be really nice for a team like us who is OBP starved. Now he is headed into his age 31 season so I'd be wary of the years on the contract and you know some team (not us) is going to give him a ridiculous 6 or 7 year deal.

I'm not sure where you get the notion that he'd be neutralized in important situations after the 5th inning. Late and close for his career he's .299/.416/.432. 2 out and RISP he's .287/.425/.439.

I believe he will sit in that lofty .375 to .390 arena. But you will pay for .423 now and forever. In the AL he will face a loogy every time with the stigma that is attached to a 150 million dollar player. Now. And he is unable to hit them at all. He does however lean in to a heck of a pitch.

[weams]

They love their Maxwell. It would be an interesting bet to see who has the better WAR in 2014 - Lough or Maxwell.

They don't really know who Maxwell is do they? Kinda like when we had Pedro Strop and he was the perfect reliever.

[skanar]

I think some posters are looking at Lough as our new leftfielder, as compared to... say... Choo. Which would seem pretty disappointing.

As compared to McLouth though, wow, nice improvement.

I know I'm a big Nate homer, but I don't think that's the case. They're probably similar hitters (edge McLouth, especially given his MLB track record); McLouth adds more on the basepaths (though Lough seems OK there). To see Lough as a "wow" improvement you have to put a lot of faith in advanced defensive metrics based on 1/2 season of play. Since it takes them two-three full years to become reliable, and even then there are questions, I think that's a bold statement to make.

On the other hand, Lough is younger, under team control, and far cheaper. All of which matter, quite a bit. I'm not unhappy with Lough instead of McLouth. But I'm not expecting the switch, by itself, to make the 2014 Orioles better than the 2013 Orioles, and I think if you are, you have to really believe in 400 games (835 innings) of UZR/DRS.

[CaptainRedbeard]

I know I'm a big Nate homer, but I don't think that's the case. They're probably similar hitters (edge McLouth, especially given his MLB track record); McLouth adds more on the basepaths (though Lough seems OK there). To see Lough as a "wow" improvement you have to put a lot of faith in advanced defensive metrics based on 1/2 season of play. Since it takes them two-three full years to become reliable, and even then there are questions, I think that's a bold statement to make.

On the other hand, Lough is younger, under team control, and far cheaper. All of which matter, quite a bit. I'm not unhappy with Lough instead of McLouth. But I'm not expecting the switch, by itself, to make the 2014 Orioles better than the 2013 Orioles, and I think if you are, you have to really believe in 400 games (835 innings) of UZR/DRS.

McLouth is probably a better player, although narrowly. His second half collapse was worrisome. At the price/years of control, and considering the limited platoon splits, I think Lough is a more appealing asset to have.

[Oldorioles]

My initial take is that Lough is a nice pick up, especially if he is treated as a 4th OF and not a starter. Love the defense, but I'm worried about OBP. Valencia was a nice bat off the bench, something which we really needed (maybe still need).

It scares me to death that we are all but anointing Almanzar to the 25-man roster now. It'll be hard to hid him for a full year and not hurt the team, plus it makes our bench weaker by keeping him. Must we keep a rule 5 guy three straight years?

I think this all but confirms Urrutia starting in Norfolk, which is fine. That still leaves six more OFs (Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pearce, Lough, and Peguero). Peguero is in trouble...remember he has NO OPTIONS remaining. What do you do with him?

[waroriole]

My initial take is that Lough is a nice pick up, especially if he is treated as a 4th OF and not a starter. Love the defense, but I'm worried about OBP. Valencia was a nice bat off the bench, something which we really needed (maybe still need).

It scares me to death that we are all but anointing Almanzar to the 25-man roster now. It'll be hard to hid him for a full year and not hurt the team, plus it makes our bench weaker by keeping him. Must we keep a rule 5 guy three straight years?

I think this all but confirms Urrutia starting in Norfolk, which is fine. That still leaves six more OFs (Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pearce, Lough, and Peguero). Peguero is in trouble...remember he has NO OPTIONS remaining. What do you do with him?

It might be possible to sneak Peguero down to AAA at the end of spring training. Of course, depending on how he does in ST. Also, Reimold is a decent bet to be injured.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I think some posters are looking at Lough as our new leftfielder, as compared to... say... Choo. Which would seem pretty disappointing.

As compared to McLouth though, wow, nice improvement.

I think it's much too early to declare him a "nice improvement" over McLouth- he hasn't even played a full season yet and he seems to have some plate discipline issues that are a bit worrisome(10 BBs in 400 MLB PAs and pedestrian minor league walk numbers).

Where you see a problem with the 6 OFers, I think DD sees options. Remember, we don't just need a LF - now presumably filled by Lough, we may need a RF pretty quickly. I hope this organization does not give Nick even 200 ABs if he is going to stink up the joint again. At some point near when the rosters are set, I do expect DD to move Peguero through waivers.

I am comfortable with the lineup with Lough. There are question marks (Machado healthy, 2B and Davis repeating, Lough), but there is upside (Wieters and Markakis rebounding).

I am comfortable with where the team is right now.

Hopefully, DD puts some cash to work for either a good SP option at anywhere from the 2-4 or a more established OF bat. I am not as on board as everyone else with pursuing Garza to a large multi-year contract based on recent WAR numbers.

Where you see options, I see lateral moves. And improvement is what is needed.

And I don't necessarily have a problem with carrying 6 OFs; I just wish at least 3 of them were proven, quality, everyday players.