Justify keeping Bedard or Roberts

[blueberryale77]

IMO you are wrong !!!! Without removing Bedard & Roberts the Orioles dont have any Blue Chip positon players ready to step in. We will be watching the same old trash that we've been watching for years! The other option is watching retreads like Roberson or the never will bees with the patched in veterans.

Again, what "blue chip position player" have we been offered for Roberts? You can't make a deal where one isn't available.

[Delduck]

Excuse me. I have been posting plans to keep Bedard and Roberts all winter long and no one has shout me down or explained how the blow up plan is any better. The blow it up plan takes longer. That's about it.

Posters mainly fall back to you can't sign Bedard as their logical argument. Of course, we don't know that to be true and no one can prove it to be true.

The other argument is about letting Bedard walk for draft choices is bull also. The O's have a year to sign or trade Bedard which is time to build around him and sign him. Letting him go for draft choices has little to no place in this discussion.

If you put everything together, which I have on many occasions, including improvement of the young pitchers, the return of Ray, possible signing for Tex or Dunn, the maturing of players in the O's farm system, and trading some of the surplus young starters to fill holes - you end of with a plan that will return the O's to contention faster then the trade Bedard and Roberts, blow it up plan.

And don't come back and say that I am saying to keep Huff, Millar, Payton, Gibbons or Mora for the long term. I am not. They all need to be replaced. Fact is that the O's can't trade them right now without eating a whole bunch of salary which I don't see Peter doing. Therefore I expect Millar and Payton to be with the O's until the deadline and Huff, Mora nd Gibbons to be with to O's all year. Maybe they are tradable next off season, maybe not. That's just what has to be dealt with.

People have called me wrong, stupid, shortsighted and a range of other things. However, here we are on Jan 20th and the team is closer to what I have been saying then anything the blow up crowd has projected. Bedard and Roberts could still be traded. If they are it looks like MacPhail will have to get an excellent offer. I have no problem with that. It is a win-win. Keeping Bedard and Roberts is a win because they are both impact players to be built around. Trading them for a kings ransom is also good because in that case the O's are getting great value for them. I say keep that value high Mr. MacPhail

I agree 100%. Keeping those two have always been my 1st option, but on several occasions I have been told that they are too old and will decline very soon. But I believe with a few smart trades to get us some position help, those two could be convinced that they are the 2 cornerstones we are building around and maybe sign an extension. If not we still have next year to do so, and judging by what the Twins have been offered, waiting should not hurt EB value.

[FutureOwner]

Here's my argument. Here is the salary refief the team will enjoy over the time Bedard and Roberts will become FA's. The Orioles purge all of their dead weight and will have plenty f money to spend on FA's and taking on salry in trades if neccessary. I read that as deficient the team was in other aspects of their game, in games started by Bedard, the team was 19-9.

Some believe Roberts and Bedard are a sure thing to leave, but I think the team has two full years to show they are serious about winning. There is no way the team can be in as bad of shape as they are now two years from now. The dead weight from the payroll will be gone, Weiters, Rowell, this year's first round pick and others should be close to the ML level.

There is plenty of money, not to mention a few decent trade chips of our own to improve the team. If Bedard stays and one other young starter has a wake up the team could be over .500 this season. If they dont develop at least one or two other starters in the next 2 seasons they will be terrible, regardless of Bedard being traded. If they develop two along with Bedard they will be justified in spending big money on the lineup.

Gone from payroll 07-08 Total of $44.75M

Bedard $3.4

Benson $7

Patterson $4.3

Payton $5

Tejada $13

Roberts $6.3

Wright $3

Millar $2.75

Gone from Payroll 09 Total of $45.2M

Baez $5.5

Bradford $3.5

Gibbons $6.2

Hernandez $8.5

Huff $8

Walker $4.5

Mora $9

[Roll Tide]

Again, what "blue chip position player" have we been offered for Roberts? You can't make a deal where one isn't available.

True but I'd ask for Gallagher, Murton, Colvin!

Even if I cant get Colvin, Murton is 25 & looks like a pretty good corner OF, Gallagher might be as good as a #2

[wildcard]

If Bedard & Roberts are Orioles on OD it doesn't make you right and the blow it up crowd wrong, does it? It still seems clear to me that MacPhail's plan is to blow it up. The blow it up crowd has said Bedard & Roberts should be traded, not necesarily that they will be traded. Do you really think MacPhail wants to keep both?

I do not know what MacPhail will do. He seems to wait until the last minute to make his deals. So I am not discounting the fact that he may still make one or two trades.

However, I do agree with MacPhail that the value for Bedard and Robert should be high. I have not heard anything that makes sense for either one of them. Jones is a nice start but now even he is in question. If the O's can't get blue chippers in return then it would be a mistake to trade either one.

The O's need impact players to compete. If they don't get them then they would be going in the wrong direction to trade either one for quantity. Bedard and Roberts are impact players. The kind the O's need to compete. There are ways to get the others players the O's need to compete in 2009.

[glenn__davis]

There's only two reasons to justify keeping Bedard and Roberts.

1. We are contending. (but we aren't)

2. AM hasn't received a good enough deal for either.

That's pretty much all she wrote.

[Moose Milligan]

They're good players.

See? That was easy.

[TheBee]

There's only two reasons to justify keeping Bedard and Roberts.

1. We are contending. (but we aren't)

2. AM hasn't received a good enough deal for either.

Yes. Read Beane's quote on Sports Guy's posts. You're either rebuilding or building for something special - I don't think the last decade has put us in a "special" position. We have a farm system that is "solidly in the middle" according to Callis and BA, and while that is improvement, it isn't enough to supply a rebuilding on its own. Free agency for a variety of obvious reasons isn't the way to do it either. Bedard and ROberts supply additional talent needed to rebuild. It has nothing to do with declining abilities or age for me - they are valuable commodities and we have lots of holes.

[Migrant Redbird]

To tell you the truth, anyone who has said we could keep them on this board was shouted down immediately, so I wouldn't bet on getting too many responses that are pro-keeping them.

Excuse me. I have been posting plans to keep Bedard and Roberts all winter long and no one has shout me down or explained how the blow up plan is any better.

I've been arguing "all winter long" too that it was foolish for the O's to trade Bedard away and unnecessary to trade Roberts ....

No one is "untouchable", but it's kind of fruitless mental masturbation to talk about dealing one of the guys [bedard and Roberts] who should be regarded as the core of the team...

The development of quality starting pitchers, something that may have been a strength of past Orioles organizations, has been extremely rare lately. Prior to Bedard, the last top notch Orioles starter since the glory days of Palmer, Cuellar, Flannagan, the Martinez boys, and Dobsen, was Mike Mussina. It really puzzles me that fans accept so easily that the team relationship with Eric Bedard is irretrievable. I know that, if I were in the O's front office, I'd be working hard to repair that relationship (if it's really frayed) and get Bedard signed to a multi-year contract with a club option.... It may well be another 18 years before the O's develop another genuine ace, but some fans are all to ready to throw Bedard under the bus and move on to still more, highly touted prospects....

.... Players trade potential future dollars for guaranteed current dollars all the time, which is why it's become such a rarity for a really premier player to reach free agency any more. Most of the free agents are mediocre non-entities simply because teams weren't willing to enter multi-year contracts and take the risk on players who are replaceable. They save those dollars to lock up players who can really make a difference. Bedard is such a pitcher. I would be surprised to see the Orioles trade him, unless someone like the Mets come in with a "knock-your-socks-off" offer they can't refuse.

.... I predict that the O's don't trade Bedard, despite the trade rumors, simply because this organization has not demonstrated the ability to produce another pitcher of his caliber more than once every decade or two. Bedard likely is NOT replaceable, as any O's fan who's watched Dan Cabrera, Matt Riley, and Rodrigo Lopez the few years ought to know. The O's also know that, if Bedard does remain healthy, they'll have another opportunity to negotiate with him next winter.

.... The team has only developed one "star pitcher" in the last 15 years and you're all determined to trade him away because of some alleged comments during contract negotiations. Little that's said in those negotiations can be taken seriously, and certainly not threats to leave the team.... And the team will sink further into the depths of the AL East, because they've traded away the only quality pitcher they could develop....

....Actually, it's in the team's interest to sign [bedard] now to a 1 year contract and wait until next winter to negotiate an extension.... It's in Bedard's interest to negotiate the extension now, so that he can lock up 4-5 years of salary rather than just one.

.... If the [Orioles] were able to find and develop "ace" pitchers the way the Twins and A's seem to be able to do, you might be right [about needing to trade Bedard], but the O's would be trading away the only pitcher of this caliber that they've been able to develop in the last 15 years. I don't have any faith whatsoever that the O's can find and develop an ace like Bedard capable of leading the staff, and that's an essential part of improving in this division. Either you've got to have a murderer's row like the Yankees and Red Sox or you're going to need an ace like Holladay to lead your rotation. You're not going to be able to move up with guys like Cabrera, Penn, and Loewen or any new acquisitions (e.g., Moss, Ainsworth, Batista) leading your rotation unless you find a better way to develop them than has been demonstrated up to now.

.... You're not going to get the next Santana and Miguel Cabrera in a package for Bedard; you're going to get guys like Damian Moss, Kurt Ainsworth, Chris Duncan, Anthony Reyes, Milledge Lastings, or Ryan Church. Some of those guys may eventually develop into reliable starting pitchers or position players, but they'll all be prospects or lower echelon regulars, if you're expecting to get back 3 or 4 of them for Bedard.

What you're doing is attempting to trade a pitcher of proven ace caliber for a package of prospects or "ML ready" players that you are gambling will develop into more total value than Bedard. Your trading player is gambling they'll be worth less. You've had scouts covering his players; he's had managers and coaches and trainers watching them every day; who do you think is more likely to assess their future value more accurately?

This is something that a winning franchise doesn't do unless they know that they won't be able to afford the player in a couple years and need to get back more value for him than a supplemental draft pick.

Bedard's value is evident for everyone to see, subject to his continued health. If you can't afford to take a chance on your players remaining healthy, then you're in the wrong business and ought to simply get out of baseball.

I didn't get "shouted down", but it certainly appeared to me that the overwhelming majority of O's fans posting here were so determined to trade Bedard and Roberts for a bumper crop of risky prospects that they weren't interested in any of the arguments I was making for keeping them. It got to be so frustrating seeing several 10-15 page "trade Bedard and/or Roberts" threads every day that I posted the following.

I wish the O's would go ahead and trade off Roberts and Bedard for a bag of balls. I'm tired of going to the O's forum and seeing dozens of 15-30 page threads breathlessly hashing and rehashing the latest speculation. Let's get it over with already.

I can't for the life of me understand why O's fans are so desperate to trade away the only top drawer pitcher they've been able to develop over the last 15 years, but it's obvious that's all that occupies their thoughts for every waking minute. I should think that the experiences with young prospects in the past that the O's have acquired, like Ainsworth and Batista, or prospects who've come up through the system, like Riley and Coppinger, would have educated O's fans to the reality that one ace in the hand is worth a dozen top notch prospects in the system -- especially in this system which seems to be clueless when it comes to developing young prospects into serviceable major league pitchers. Besides Bedard, whom do the O's have to show for all the prospects they've nurtured since Mussina broke through? Maine? Towers? Johnson? Even the mediocre ones are no longer with the team because the organization lost patience.

Sorry for the rant. It's your team. Sell off all your major league quality players if you want. It's unlikely that you'll ever compete with the Red Sox and Yankees again anyhow. You might as well get rid of your good players so that you can finish behind the Rays and Jays every year.

For starting that thread, I got one negative rep hit (with no explanation) and one positive rep hit ("Agree with you 100%.") that balanced out.

.... I think that [trading Bedard and Roberts for prospects is] the wrong approach. You build organizational depth by doing a better job of scouting players for the draft, getting as many of your draft picks signed as possible, keeping those players healthy and developing them through your minor league system, and trading spare parts for players that you do need. The last I looked at the O's roster, neither Bedard nor Roberts qualified as a spare part. I can understand the sentiment that trading Tejada was addition through subtraction, but the O's are going to have to do a better job of developing their players and hanging onto them if they're ever going to compete in the AL East again; they can't be discarding the only ace they've been able to develop over the last 15 years because of a comment made during contract negotiations and blown up out of proportion....

I had a long winded discussion with another Cardinals fan today about the Cards trading for Bedard or Roberts, which might interest some O's fans.

Cubs almost land Bedard

....Trading Duncan for Roberts would be a significant net improvement for both the Cards and the O's. Duncan's career .884 OPS would be incredibly better than the sickening .729 posted by the O's DH position last year and I really believe Chris could hit that well or better full time if he were given the opportunity to start against southpaws. Roberts would give us defense approximately as good as Kennedy and better than any of our other options, but he'd also be the most accomplished lead off hitter we've had in decades, if ever. Brock and Coleman were a little faster, but Roberts OBP was .373 against right handers and .386 against southpaws last season. For his career, he's .364 against righties and .324 against left handers, identical to Coleman's career overall OBP of .324 and better than Brock's .307 career OBP against southpaws.

... Since the Cards can't get Bedard for Rasmus straight up, the price would be really high if he were included in the deal.

I'm not sure that it would take much of value beyond Rasmus. The only higher rated prospect in baseball right now is Jay Bruce and the Reds have been adamant that they won't give him up to get Bedard. The Mariners are balking on Adam Jones and the Cubs don't want to give up Felix Pie. If we were really prepared to trade off Rasmus even up for Bedard, the O's might surprise you and take the deal, or at least accept C level prospects along with Rasmus (which is about all we have available anyhow).

.... I'd trade Duncan for Roberts or I'd trade Rasmus for Bedard IF I were fairly confident of not repeating the Mulder debacle. (Which I'm not.) I wouldn't trade both of them because I don't regard our outfield depth as being that good -- to trade off two of our three best [Rasmus, Ankiel, & Duncan]. One of the three, yes; but not two.

I should comment though that I don't believe Tony La Russa will allow his pitching coach's son to be traded away, even though it would be in the best interests both of Chris and the Cardinals to deal him to the AL where he could DH most of the time. Tony commented publicly that he didn't want Chris traded shortly after Mozeliak was named GM. Tony might have been trying to strengthen Mozeliak's hand in possible trade discussions, but I interpreted Tony's gratuitous comment as sending a signal that Chris was "untouchable".

[Sports Guy]

Because I like giving Jordan top 5 choices!

[TyCobb]

Roberts needs to go. I see Bedard being a more valuable at the trade deadline. Imagine if the Reds are in the playoff race and Bruce and Cueto aren't on the MLB team.

[wildcard]

There's something to be said about good quantity as well. Do you think Roberts or Bedard were considered impact prospects?

Yes. Roberts was a #1 draft choice. All American. High steal total. Always expect to be a leadoff guy with a high OBP.

From Baseball Cube:

1997 - Freshman 1st team All-America SS, Atlantic Coast Conference All-Star SS, College Freshman of the Year 1998 - Atlantic Coast Conference Player of the Year, Atlantic Coast Conference All-Star SS 1999 - 2nd team College All-American SS 2005 - Baltimore Orioles Player of the Year, Baseball America First-Team Major League All-Star 2B, AL MVP (Voting Rank: #18), Played in MLB All-Star Game

Bedard was high touted before his TJ surgery.

1999 Rookie ball, 2-1, 1.86 ERA, 29 IP, 41 SO

2000 A Ball, 9-4, 3.57 ERA, 111 IP, 131 SO

2001 A+ Ball, 9-2, 2.15 ERA, 96 IP, 130 SO

2002 AA Ball. 6-3, 1.97 ERA, 68 IP, 66 SO

2003 out with TJ Surgery

How could Bedard not be a highly touted prospect with those ERAs and SO totals.

[wildcard]

There's something to be said about good quantity as well. Do you think Roberts or Bedard were considered impact prospects?

Quantity is nice but it is not a substitute for quality. Quantity will not beat the Yankees and Red Sox. Quality will.

[SevisonJN]

There are a few ways to build a quality baseball team. First option is through free agency if you are willing to spend the money. You can go out and outbid other teams for some of the best players on the market. The 1995-1996 Orioles are a good example of this approach. We had signed Rafael Palmeiro ($5.4 Mil), Roberto Alomar ($4.28 Mil), BJ Surhoff ($1.14 Mil), Bobby Bonilla ($5.1 Mil), Eddie Murray ($2 Mil), Scott Erickson ($2.9 Mil), David Wells ($3.2 Mil), and Randy Myers ($2.6 Mil). $26.62 Million went to 8 guys during the 1986 season, but times have changed. Most All-Star First basemen, second basemen, and closers will probably cost you more that $26 Million alone. Chad Cordero made $6.2 Million in 2007, Paul Konerko $12 Million, and Brian Roberts $4.2 Million or a total of $22.4 Million. The salaries given to players now a days make this option less likely if done more than 2-4 guys are brought in.

The second option is to build through your system. Unfortunately for the Orioles we have never had much of a system. I have always looked at the guys we drafted and believed that the teams behind us would have picked them if we did not. I think it really comes to player development and not knowing when to cut ties with a given prospect. The Orioles have had their share of bad luck. They swept the Yankess on the last weekend of the 2000 season. The swept pushed us behing Texas in the draft order. They got Mark Teixeira, the first baseman we wanted. There was little doubt that he was our guy and is likely a target for the 2009 season. Jeffrey Hammonds was drafted with the 4th pick of the 1992 draft. Most baseball experts thought this guy would be a perrenial all star. Everytime I watched himplay Igot excited; he looked like the real deal. Injuries derailed his career, but he had talent. The 5th overall pick in that same draft was a guy named Derek Jeter. The most recent exampleof bad draft day luck was Jay Bruce being drafted by the Reds with pick number 12 of the 2005 draft. With the 13th pick the Orioles drafted Brandon Snyder. The Orioles coveted Jay Bruce, but never had the opportunity. There was obviosly opportunities. Players taken in the first round of the 2005 draft after the Orioles selected were Jacoby Ellsbury(23), Matt Garza(25), Craig Hansen(26), and Colby Rasmus(28). I however, would like to think of the players drafted before the Orioles selected with the 13th pick. Justin Upton (1), Alex Gordon(2), Jeff Clement(3), Ryan Zimmerman(4), Ryan Braun(5), Troy Tulowitzki(7), Cameron Maybin(10), and Jay Bruce (12). Other players in that group were Michael Pelfrey(9) and Andrew McCutchen. 10 of the 12 players taken before Snyder will likely be better baseball players. So, drafting isn't an exact science either. I see a lot of posts saying that we should keep guys like Bedard and Roberts so they can bring back a few first round picks. I see the arguement, but I can't agree with it. I will try to explain. A few years ago the Astros proposed a trade of Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, Roy Oswalt, and Jason Hirsch for Tejada, just Tejada. Oswalt is an all star and Hirsch would be no worse than our #4 starter. The Orioles were offered Troy Tulowitski, Hirsh, and another player for Tejada. In both deals we get back one All-Star and one solid baseball player. The compensatory picks we get for Bedards and Roberts have a greater likelyhood to fail than known prospects such as Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Colby Rasmus, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Sean Gallagher, etc. I will roll the dice with those guys any day. They may not be can't miss, but that is better than can't make it out of the minors. Remember the Wade Townsend pick of 2004? We never signed him even though we knew what he wanted before the draft. Anyone know who was drafted in the first round after our selection? Jered Weaver (12), Stephen Drew (15), Josh Fields (18), Phil Hughes (23), Gio Gonzalez (38), and Huston Street (40). I guess it is all relative considering that Matt Bush the #1 overall pick was followed by Justin Verlander (2), Philip Humber (3), Jeff Neimann (4), and Homer Bailey (5). Everyone makes mistakes which is the reason that building from the draft is such a crap-shoot.

[Migrant Redbird]

There are a few ways to build a quality baseball team. First option is through free agency if you are willing to spend the money. You can go out and outbid other teams for some of the best players on the market.

It's getting so that relatively few of the "best players" ever reach the free agent market any more, simply because their teams lock them into long term extensions a year or two before their current contracts run out. Murray Chass wrote an article almost 7 years ago about how free agents like A-Rod, Manny, Juan Gonzalez and Brett Boone were making big impacts on their teams. How many so-called "impact" free agents have really worked out since Chass wrote that article? Barry Zito? Jason Schmidt? Gary Matthews Jr.? Juan Pierre?

Soriano had a decent season with the Cubs but they still struggled all season long and it wasn't as good a year as he had with the Nats in 2006. His home runs dropped by 13. His stolen bases dropped more than half. His BA went up a little, but his OBP dropped 14 points to .337, not at all impressive for a premier lead off hitter. Of course, part of that was missing 27 games in 2007.

Not even the Yankees can build a team through free agency. The core of the great Yankees teams in recent history were the "home grown tomatoes", as a Yankee fan I used to know called them: Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang. That core has been supplemented by players acquired through trade: Alex Rodriguez, Bobby Abreu, Randy Johnson

Some key free agents have made significant contributions over the years: such as Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Mike Mussina, and Gary Sheffield, but notable free agent signings like Jason Giambi, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright were largely disappointments.

The foundations of the great teams are built on their draft picks and their organizational development. A quality organization gives a team good players to fill the holes in their lineups and rotations and it provides a surplus of good players at some positions which can be traded to fill the holes that couldn't be filled from within. That core can then be judiciously supplemented with a few trades of veterans and acquisition of a few free agents, but the foundation of the organization must be working or it won't be successful.

I could go ahead and try to list what is necessary to maximize the value of draft picks and develop them, but most of you know that as well or better than I do. Moreover, all the major league teams understand what they need to do; they just have differing levels of success in doing it.