Trade on the horizon?

[Rene88]

That's kind of you to say. I wrote a long post on here sometime earlier in the offseason that laid out a series of moves I thought would exemplify an aggressive approach to retooling for short term (2015-2017) while maintaining the org's adequate but not overly impressive chances in 2014. I can see if I can find it, but multi-tasking right now. If anyone knows how to search that out feel free to post a link or message over to dshawg1

Of course-I value your opinion a great deal, as many do. Off the record-you and Crawdaddy still work together/friends? He was my favorite poster over at the Baltimore Sun board. I never had the honor of meeting him, but just seemed like a really great person.

[weams]

That's kind of you to say. I wrote a long post on here sometime earlier in the offseason that laid out a series of moves I thought would exemplify an aggressive approach to retooling for short term (2015-2017) while maintaining the org's adequate but not overly impressive chances in 2014. I can see if I can find it, but multi-tasking right now. If anyone knows how to search that out feel free to post a link or message over to dshawg1

I think in order to get the full picture you have to concede the possibility that Hardy on Baltimore next year might have zero value. It all depends on what other moves are being made. There's a spectrum from "rebuild" to "World Series favorite", and where a team views itself on that spectrum is a big part of how much a particular player/contract is valued. The closer you are to "rebuild", the less inherent value a one-year contract has.

If the Baltimore FO is legitimately pushing to be a strong potential playoff team, Hardy's value is significant in that he likely offers good value at a cheap price filling a difficult hole. If Baltimore is more in the "target mid-80s wins and look to catch a couple of breaks", Hardy just doesn't mean that much from a production standpoint. Now, there's the locker room consideration, as well. So if you are looking tomove Hardy, you've got to be able to sell it to long-term players that it is all in an effort to win a World Series as quickly as possible, while sustaining competitiveness.

The same, if the right moves aren't there to improve the team, you probably don't move Hardy "just to make a move". I'd probably look to trade him, along with Johnson, Wieters, and Chris Davis.

Is this it?

[hoosiers]

That's kind of you to say. I wrote a long post on here sometime earlier in the offseason that laid out a series of moves I thought would exemplify an aggressive approach to retooling for short term (2015-2017) while maintaining the org's adequate but not overly impressive chances in 2014. I can see if I can find it, but multi-tasking right now. If anyone knows how to search that out feel free to post a link or message over to dshawg1

Is there any industry consensus regarding whether the Os are better prepared to compete now (with Wieters, Markakis, Davis, Hardy) or whether they are set up better for 2016 when the rotation should include seasoned arms (by then) of Tillman, Bundy, Gausman and EdRod (with Harvey at AA or higher) with cheap positional talent like Schoop and Manny?

[Stotle]

Is this it?

Thanks for checking -- it was actually this one:

Haven't thought about this at all, but off the top of my head the best case scenario is something like this (entering off-season):

Nationals get Chris Davis ($10 MM salary or so?)

Orioles get Adam LaRoche ($12 MM salary), Anthony Rendon (six more years of control), Luc Giolito or AJ Cole (prospect), Brian Goodwin (2015 OF)

Braves get Matt Wieters ($7-8 MM salary or so?) and Jim Johnson (with Baltimore covering everything over $6 MM)

Orioles get Luc Sims, Sean Gilmartin, and Jose Peraza

Cardinals get JJ Hardy ($7.5 MM salary or so?)

Orioles get Carlos Martinez (front-end upside but might end up my really cheap closer for next three years) and Stephen Piscotty (2015 OF)

That's about $30 MM freed up.

Sign McCann for 5/90

Sign Peralta for 4/60

CA McCann

1B LaRoche

2B Rendon

3B Machado

SS Peralta

LF McClouth

CF Jones

RF Markakis

DH Valencia

Stronger pitching to go with slightly weaker lineup in 2014. Looking ahead, you shed another $15 MM with Markakis for 2015 and have an extremely cheap baseline -- go after Billy Butler for DH. Flip one of Bundy/Gausman/Giolito/Harvey/Sims for one of the Cubs excess power bats -- likely Baez since he's one of the previous regime's boys..

3B Rendon (pre-arb)

SS Machado (pre-arb)

DH Butler ($18 MM)

CA McCann ($18 MM)

CF Jones ($17 MM)

1B Peralta ($15 MM)

RF Piscotty (pre-arb)

2B Baez (pre-arb)

LF Goodwin (pre-arb)

Pre-arb pitchers Chen, Bundy, Gausman, Hale, Martinez, Gilmartin, Gonzalez, Wright

Tillman is in arbitration

Harvey/Giolito/Sims one or two more years away

That's a really extreme example, and highly unlikely those specific moves pan out. I also signed Peralta/McCann/Butler to show an attempt to build a playoff team right away. If I were taking over as a new GM, and had a year or two of "good will" grace time, I'd probably give Flaherty the 2B job in 2014 with Rendon at third, eyeing Schoop as the long term 2B.

CA McCann

1B Baez

2B Schoop

SS Machado

3B Rendon

LF Piscotty

CF Jones

RF Goodwin

DH Butler

Obviously it works to just trade some combination of those four, rather than all four, as well. Point being you can free up space and do something with that money that helps you stay competitive while driving down your long term Core Costs.

[waveitbyebye]

Honestly, I don't even care what trade goes down, or who the pieces are. I just want something - anything - to talk about that involves new players on the 2014 Orioles.

This may be the most idiotic thing I've ever read on this board. You wouldnt care if the O's traded Machado Bundy Gausman and Erod for Luis Valbuena just so you can have something to talk about? Get a grip man.

[Stotle]

Is there any industry consensus regarding whether the Os are better prepared to compete now (with Wieters, Markakis, Davis, Hardy) or whether they are set up better for 2016 when the rotation should include seasoned arms (by then) of Tillman, Bundy, Gausman and EdRod (with Harvey at AA or higher) with cheap positional talent like Schoop and Manny?

They are not set up very well right now past 2015. Schoop is the only positional guy folks consistently point to as a decent bet to be an everyday player. There will be money available, but it doesn't seem likely it will be spent on impact. I think the general consensus (if you can call it that) is that no one knows what Baltimore's plans are. Good trade chips right now to quickly retool, but losing Wieters/Davis/Hardy, and not necessarily wanting to give all three of those QOs, means Baltimore might be a low- to mid-80 win team in 2014 and 2015 and then really regress while they wait for additional talent from in the system to come.

[BillySmith]

Is there any industry consensus regarding whether the Os are better prepared to compete now (with Wieters, Markakis, Davis, Hardy) or whether they are set up better for 2016 when the rotation should include seasoned arms (by then) of Tillman, Bundy, Gausman and EdRod (with Harvey at AA or higher) with cheap positional talent like Schoop and Manny?

Heck no! The best notion I've read over this winter is that because Buck and DD are signed through 2018, every year will be a year we can be in contention. Like the Rays. Not saying that's the right way to go, but to answer your question, I don't think anyone on the national front is willing to go there.

[hoosiers]

They are not set up very well right now past 2015. Schoop is the only positional guy folks consistently point to as a decent bet to be an everyday player. There will be money available, but it doesn't seem likely it will be spent on impact. I think the general consensus (if you can call it that) is that no one knows what Baltimore's plans are. Good trade chips right now to quickly retool, but losing Wieters/Davis/Hardy, and not necessarily wanting to give all three of those QOs, means Baltimore might be a low- to mid-80 win team in 2014 and 2015 and then really regress while they wait for additional talent from in the system to come.

I get what you are saying, it's just that the Os might have 5 top 100 guys above AA entering 2014 plus young guys like Manny and Tillman, so I'd like to think they are better positioned for 2016 than you. That could be an awfully cheap core of talent producing, hopefully, in the 15-20 WAR range. Dealing Davis, Wieters, Hardy and AJ might provide (assuming some failures) 7-10 WAR out of four more cheap guys. That would be a pretty productive cheap young group.

[mcgraw238]

Stotle's does a nice job above of buying and selling, fielding what should be an entertaining team in 2014 and extending the "two year window" further out.

[Stotle]

I get what you are saying, it's just that the Os might have 5 top 100 guys above AA entering 2014 plus young guys like Manny and Tillman, so I'd like to think they are better positioned for 2016 than you. That could be an awfully cheap core of talent producing, hopefully, in the 15-20 WAR range. Dealing Davis, Wieters, Hardy and AJ might provide (assuming some failures) 7-10 WAR out of four more cheap guys. That would be a pretty productive cheap young group.

Oh sure, I think if you trade those guys you can get into really good shape very quickly as far as 2015-2018 is concerned.

[hoosiers]

Oh sure, I think if you trade those guys you can get into really good shape very quickly as far as 2015-2018 is concerned.

There is always performance risk, but assuming the Os make a more than half-hearted effort to put a good team on the field, would you expect most of Hardy, Wieters, Jones, Davis to retain much of their trade values at the trade deadline this year?

[Stotle]

There is always performance risk, but assuming the Os make a more than half-hearted effort to put a good team on the field, would you expect most of Hardy, Wieters, Jones, Davis to retain much of their trade values at the trade deadline this year?

Davis is the most likely to lose significant value. Wieters the most likely to gain significant value. If Hardy is solid, his value will be as well but only to a competitive team that really needs a shortstop. Might require an injury for the starter on a playoff team.

Jones is an interesting question. What are your thoughts? My guess is that teams will drastically vary in their appraisal of the remaining years on his deal.

[ChaosLex]

Glenn (from WNST) thinks it's Ike Davis.

[mcgraw238]

Glenn (from WNST) thinks it's Ike Davis.

At least we will have a replacement at 1B for Chris when he departs.

[weams]

Glenn (from WNST) thinks it's Ike Davis.

Glenn's source is this thread.