Johan Santana topping out at 87mph in simulated game

[bobmc]

When I wake up I am 5'10.5" tall. I can appear taller due to footwear. My actual height may decrease by a centimeter by the end of the day.

Dang! Is that all after 15 hours in a LA Z BOY? :scratchchinhmm:

[mcgraw238]

But wasn't he pretty awful in 2012?

Wasn't great, but also might have been a bit unlucky. 4.85 ERA, but .301 BABIP (highest of his career since becoming a starter) and a 4.09 FIP. Still struck out 8.54 batters per nine.

If we're eventually offered a choice, I'd take five innings of Santana over five innings of Chen every time.

Actually he was pretty great in 2012 until his last five starts where he got shelled pushing his ERA a full 2 runs higher. Some think the 134 pitch no-hit effort might have been the unraveling of the shoulder.

[MrOrange82]

Actually he was pretty great in 2012 until his last five starts where he got shelled pushing his ERA a full 2 runs higher. Some think the 134 pitch no-hit effort might have been the unraveling of the shoulder.

Interesting. I should have checked the game log before posting, but it makes sense that the handful of starts before being sidelined were what did in his final numbers.

(btw, I still haven't checked the game log, so I'm taking your word for it)

[mcgraw238]

Interesting. I should have checked the game log before posting, but it makes sense that the handful of starts before being sidelined were what did in his final numbers.

(btw, I still haven't checked the game log, so I'm taking your word for it)

2.76 ERA in starts 1-16 covering 98 IP including back to back compete games (one of which was a no-hitter) before the wheels fell off over the last five starts pushing his ERA up to 4.85

[olehippi]

The 87 MPH ones are not really fastballs.

They might be by the 7th inning after throwing 112 pitches. And pitchers often take something off their fastball when they "have" to throw a strike. But if not fastballs, as Fangraphs claims, what are they? As I'm sure you know, they break down the pitches thrown - curves, sliders, change-ups, etc.

[joedogg9999]

They might be by the 7th inning after throwing 112 pitches. And pitchers often take something off their fastball when they "have" to throw a strike. But if not fastballs, as Fangraphs claims, what are they? As I'm sure you know, they break down the pitches thrown - curves, sliders, change-ups, etc.

Oh how I wish our pitchers could be at 112 pitches in the 7th.

About Tillman, he can get it up to 95 but he definitely works at 89-91 about 95% of the time.

[weams]

Weams posted in another thread that he was highly skeptical . Weams-do you have some inside info? If you posted and I missed it, my apologies.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nope. Just highly skeptical. And i figure Heyman always is trying to accomplish something.

[MurphDogg]

Oh how I wish our pitchers could be at 112 pitches in the 7th.

About Tillman, he can get it up to 95 but he definitely works at 89-91 about 95% of the time.

I posted yesterday that his average fastball is 91.99. I'm not sure where I saw that but here is a link that shows his average four seamer this year at 92.00 MPH That is based on PitchFX for this season. In order for your contention to be true that he sits between 89-91 "95 percent of the time" you can determine what he would have to be throwing the other 5 percent. (91 * .95) = 86.45. 92-86.45 = 5.55. 5.55/.05 = 111MPH. Even if your contention of working between 89-91 about 95 percent of the time means that he is working at 91 all 95 percent of the time, it would mean that the other 5 percent of the time he would have to be throwing 111 miles per hour to average 92. This may seem silly, but you aren't allowed to simply have your own facts.

[Hank Scorpio]

Tillman gets taller by the 7th inning.

Unfortunately, by then he's thrown 274 pitches.

[weams]

Unfortunately, by then he's thrown 274 pitches.

And his velocity has increased.

[MurphDogg]

I would just say that the gun we see on TV general has shown Tillman between 89-91 most of the time. Maybe a lot of those are two seamers. Maybe that isn't the gun that Fangraphs uses. Whatever. When I watch tv and Tillman is pitching it seems the majority of his fastballs have been between 89-91. Heck, it seems as though Jimenez has been in that range for most of his starts as well.

As for Johan Santana it's a matter of where the progression ends and what velocity he needs to be effective. When they first scouted him, I think he was rarely touching 80 so he has progressed to mid 80's, it sounds like. Perhaps he gains another 2-3 mph in the next month. Maybe. Maybe not. In the end, a lot will depend on his other pitches as well and, most importantly, what kind of command he has of his pitches.

A couple of thoughts here. First, yes I trust PitchFX data over the MASN gun, it isn't particularly close.

Second, looking at Santana's velocity data, he averaged 89.49 in 2012 and was quite effective for the first half of the season. Interestingly, his only month averaging 90 in 2012 was August, long after he had lost effectiveness.

Odd to see you say that it sounds like he has progressed to mid 80s when the reports show him at 88-89. Not sure how that is mid 80s. He was effective in 2012 at around 89 and in 2010 when he averaged 90.34. He doesn't need to really exceed 90 to be effective, it sounds like he is pretty close to contributing to me.

[LookinUp]

In no particular order...yes please.

Starters: Tillman, Jimenez, Santana, Chen, Gausman

Relievers: Norris, Gonzalez, Hunter, O'Day, Webb, Britton, Patton

AAA: McFarland, Matusz, Gamboa, Steve Johnson, Meek, Stinson, Wright, Yoon

Wildcards: Berry, Rodriguez, Bundy (August 30)

[weams]

In no particular order...yes please.

Starters: Tillman, Jimenez, Santana, Chen, Gausman

Relievers: Norris, Gonzalez, Hunter, O'Day, Webb, Britton, Patton

AAA: McFarland, Matusz, Gamboa, Steve Johnson, Meek, Stinson, Wright, Yoon

Wildcards: Berry, Rodriguez, Bundy (August 30)

Bud is better than Chen. By a bit.

[Frobby]

Bud is better than Chen. By a bit.

That's debatable. Chen has a 4.06 ERA since entering the majors in 2012. Norris has a 4.37 ERA in that same period, much of which was spent in the NL which has weaker hitting due to the absence of a DH. His overall career ERA is 4.35.

Now, I will say that Norris has looked better than Chen so far in 2014. I'm not going to draw too many conclusions from the results of 29.2 and 34 IP, respectively, though.

[weams]

That's debatable. Chen has a 4.06 ERA since entering the majors in 2012. Norris has a 4.37 ERA in that same period, much of which was spent in the NL which has weaker hitting due to the absence of a DH. His overall career ERA is 4.35.

Now, I will say that Norris has looked better than Chen so far in 2014. I'm not going to draw too many conclusions from the results of 29.2 and 34 IP, respectively, though.

Ok. So far, this season, Bud looks like he can pitch more effectively as a starter than Wei Chen. For the same money.