Is It Too Early to Start Talking About Nick Markakis?

[gpolee]

I don't know if Nick has 35 doubles in him, but we'll see. I'll take the .370 OBP every day and twice on Sunday, and gladly pay $10 mm/yr for it, if he can do it all year.

If he could steal more than 2 bases per year, he could put that .370 OBP to better use. Good D, a little speed on the bases sans SBs, little power, good OBP -- that's not that appealing to me, especially for $10MM. Without at least 25 - 30 doubles, he'd have to hit .315 with 90 RBIs and 100 runs scored to be vital to a team that has difficulty getting around the bases. And heaven help us if he remains in the leadoff spot. The only places in the lineup the no-power Nick fits are 2nd and 8th.

[gpolee]

They discovered that chicks dig the long ball. The problem with those guys was they were trying to do too much. They were still putting the ball in play. My guess is if any one really tried to just spoil pitches to get a walk they would change the rules. Like with Eddie Gaedel. The games would take 5-6 hours and be tedious to watch. No money in that. But it would work.

It sorta sounds like winning the Indy 500 by hypermiling.

[mdbdotcom]

I'm not a mathematician but Nick has two homeruns through 33 games. That's gotta put him on pace for about 10 not 17.

Correct. The other projections are his career numbers averaged over 162 games. What he's done so far this year extrapolates to 74 R, 29 2B, 5 3B, 10 HR, 59 RBI.

[El Gordo]

I'm not a mathematician but Nick has two homeruns through 33 games. That's gotta put him on pace for about 10 not 17.

You're right that was his career average pace.My bad. His current pace for this year is 74 R, 212 H, 30 2BH, 5 3BH, 10 HR, 59 RBI. But I bet he hits more than 10 HR and drives in more than 59. Nick was hitting .552 OPS April 14. Since then he is .363 .446 .500 .946. That would project to 90 R, 235 H, 41 2BH, 0 3BH, 17 HR 73 RBI. We'll see.

[Can_of_corn]

You're right that was his career average pace.My bad. His current pace for this year is 74 R, 212 H, 30 2BH, 5 3BH, 10 HR, 59 RBI. But I bet he hits more than 10 HR and drives in more than 59.

That, of course, is dependent on how often the bottom of the order can get on base.

[El Gordo]

That, of course, is dependent on how often the bottom of the order can get on base.

If they would follow my plan and just foul off pitches to get walks he'd drive in 150.

[DrungoHazewood]

They discovered that chicks dig the long ball. The problem with those guys was they were trying to do too much. They were still putting the ball in play. My guess is if any one really tried to just spoil pitches to get a walk they would change the rules. Like with Eddie Gaedel. The games would take 5-6 hours and be tedious to watch. No money in that. But it would work.

My guess is that it would not work. You're saying a player could have a .150/.500/.180 line. I'm going to say that couldn't happen. I think most major league pitchers, maybe almost all, could throw strikes nearly 100% of the time, all day long if they knew the batter was absolutely no threat to hit. Not only that, but it's difficult to intentionally hit foul balls all the time. You're asking someone to have Ichiro+ bat control (i.e. off the charts), but with no intention of actually putting the ball in play.

I guess I'll log this one in the "semi-plausible, but very unlikely" category.

[oriolesacox]

If they would follow my plan and just foul off pitches to get walks he'd drive in 150.

Reminds me of a book I read in grade school... The kid who batted .1000. Pretty much did your philosophy and spoiled strikes and drew walks every at bat.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0385503377?pc_redir=1398454905&robot_redir=1#immersive_view?1399745668089

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[DrungoHazewood]

Reminds me of a book I read in grade school... The kid who batted .1000. Pretty much did your philosophy and spoiled strikes and drew walks every at bat.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/0385503377?pc_redir=1398454905&robot_redir=1#immersive_view?1399745668089

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I linked to that a month or so ago! Gordo is convinced that a book for 11-year-olds holds the key to revolutionizing baseball. Almost plausible, but pretty darned unlikely.

[oriolesacox]

I linked to that a month or so ago! Gordo is convinced that a book for 11-year-olds holds the key to revolutionizing baseball. Almost plausible, but pretty darned unlikely.

I'm sorry, wish I would of saw that! That's all I could think about the whole thread!

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[Frobby]

I'm sorry, wish I would of saw that! That's all I could think about the whole thread!

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I tried to post a picture of that book in this thread yesterday, but of course, couldn't figure out how to do it.

[Malike]

I tried to post a picture of that book in this thread yesterday, but of course, couldn't figure out how to do it.

[El Gordo]

My guess is that it would not work. You're saying a player could have a .150/.500/.180 line. I'm going to say that couldn't happen. I think most major league pitchers, maybe almost all, could throw strikes nearly 100% of the time, all day long if they knew the batter was absolutely no threat to hit. Not only that, but it's difficult to intentionally hit foul balls all the time. You're asking someone to have Ichiro+ bat control (i.e. off the charts), but with no intention of actually putting the ball in play.

I guess I'll log this one in the "semi-plausible, but very unlikely" category.

Go to your nearest batting cage, choke up on the bat, set the dial for 90 mph and see how long it takes you to spoil those pitches. Even Ichiro is swinging, trying to put the ball in play. When you are not trying to do that but merely catching the ball on the bat, you might be surprised how easy it is. Even if you struck out it would probably take 10 or more pitches to do so. In other a more productive AB than almost all of Lough's AB so far.

[El Gordo]

Wasn't there a ball player named Bob Allison?

[Malike]

Wasn't there a ball player named Bob Allison?

William Robert Allison, yes. Played for the Senators in the 50's and the Twins in the 60's.