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Shorebird's Mike Yastrzemski is a Complete Player


DrShorebird

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>One step closer to playing aside Adam Jones:Orioles send Mike Yastrzemski to AA</p>— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) <a href="

">July 15, 2014</a></blockquote>

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I think Little Yaz has kind of busted skankar's model. skankar had dismissed Yaz's solid numbers at Delmarva because he was a 23-year old playing in low A. His numbers at Frederick won't fit the model because you need at least 150 at bats at a level for the model to be used, and Yaz was promoted before he reached 150. Maybe he'll have just enough time to get in 150 at bats at Bowie. But no matter what Yaz does at Bowie this year, I'd say he has put himself on the radar screen just by earning two promotions in one year.

By the way, here's an interesting comparison:

Yaz (Aberdeen 2013): .273/.362/.420 (235 PA)

Walker (Aberdeen 2012): .284/.376/.420 (93 PA)

Yaz (Delmarva 2014): .308/.365/.530 (286 PA)

Walker (Delmarva 2013): .353/.420/.474 (131 PA)

Yaz (Frederick 2014): .306/.365/.554 (107 PA)

Walker (Frederick 2013): .288/.343/.479 (239 PA)

Yaz (Bowie 2014): ???

Walker (Bowie 2013): .242/.319/.323 (69 PA)

Both players had a solid debut at Aberdeen the year they were drafted, then did well at Delmarva and Frederick the following year and got promoted twice. In Walker's case, he stuggled once he got promoted to Bowie -- perhaps due to an injury -- but then thrived there the following year and earned another mid-season promotion. It will be interesting to see how Yaz handles Bowie this year after being promoted so quickly (Walker's stint at Frederick was considerably longer).

It should be noted that Walker is actually 7 months younger than Yaz, despite being a year ahead of him in the system. Walker played three years of college ball, Yaz played four. I don't think there's any doubt that Walker is the better hitting prospect, at the moment, despite the similar numbers and promotion path each has had since being drafted. However, from what I've read, Yaz is actually a pretty good outfielder, with a plus arm, whereas Walker is a pretty so-so first baseman. So, the distance between them as overall prospects may not be as great it might appear.

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I think Little Yaz has kind of busted skankar's model. skankar had dismissed Yaz's solid numbers at Delmarva because he was a 23-year old playing in low A. His numbers at Frederick won't fit the model because you need at least 150 at bats at a level for the model to be used, and Yaz was promoted before he reached 150. Maybe he'll have just enough time to get in 150 at bats at Bowie. But no matter what Yaz does at Bowie this year, I'd say he has put himself on the radar screen just by earning two promotions in one year.

By the way, here's an interesting comparison:

Yaz (Aberdeen 2013): .273/.362/.420 (235 PA)

Walker (Aberdeen 2012): .284/.376/.420 (93 PA)

Yaz (Delmarva 2014): .308/.365/.530 (286 PA)

Walker (Delmarva 2013): .353/.420/.474 (131 PA)

Yaz (Frederick 2014): .306/.365/.554 (107 PA)

Walker (Frederick 2013): .288/.343/.479 (239 PA)

Yaz (Bowie 2014): ???

Walker (Bowie 2013): .242/.319/.323 (69 PA)

Both players had a solid debut at Aberdeen the year they were drafted, then did well at Delmarva and Frederick the following year and got promoted twice. In Walker's case, he stuggled once he got promoted to Bowie -- perhaps due to an injury -- but then thrived there the following year and earned another mid-season promotion. It will be interesting to see how Yaz handles Bowie this year after being promoted so quickly (Walker's stint at Frederick was considerably longer).

It should be noted that Walker is actually 7 months younger than Yaz, despite being a year ahead of him in the system. Walker played three years of college ball, Yaz played four. I don't think there's any doubt that Walker is the better hitting prospect, at the moment, despite the similar numbers and promotion path each has had since being drafted. However, from what I've read, Yaz is actually a pretty good outfielder, with a plus arm, whereas Walker is a pretty so-so first baseman. So, the distance between them as overall prospects may not be as great it might appear.

Good stuff "Frank"! IMHO, Buck would love to get Yaz III up to the bigs just to "in your face" the Sawx. It would be a great story and Peter Gammons would run with it also. But, these are mere dreams at this point......:hearts:

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Good stuff "Frank"! IMHO, Buck would love to get Yaz III up to the bigs just to "in your face" the Sawx. It would be a great story and Peter Gammons would run with it also. But, these are mere dreams at this point......:hearts:

Make him a Sept call up and on the Roster by 9-8, the first of six games they have to play Boston and that's even in Boston.

Even if he doesn't get in the game, can you image the field day the media will have poking fun at Boston! :)

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I think Little Yaz has kind of busted skankar's model....

But no matter what Yaz does at Bowie this year, I'd say he has put himself on the radar screen just by earning two promotions in one year.

Are we sure Yaz's promotion path tells us anything other than he was misassigned coming out of college and spring training? Ultimately, promotions will be less important than production. I'm intrigued, but need to see him producing at a legit high level in AA before I'm excited.

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According to the Orioles, Yastrzemski is the only player in the majors or minors this season who's accumulated double digits in doubles, triples, home runs, steals and outfield assists.

That oozes "legit"..... :thumbsup1:

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I think Little Yaz has kind of busted skankar's model. skankar had dismissed Yaz's solid numbers at Delmarva because he was a 23-year old playing in low A. His numbers at Frederick won't fit the model because you need at least 150 at bats at a level for the model to be used, and Yaz was promoted before he reached 150. Maybe he'll have just enough time to get in 150 at bats at Bowie. But no matter what Yaz does at Bowie this year, I'd say he has put himself on the radar screen just by earning two promotions in one year.

The model is based on what prospects have done in the past and its predictive power is limited by the availability of that data. I don't know exactly which prospects have been promoted two levels in a single year, especially when they started at a relatively advanced age, but I do know that it's relatively rare.

Players who are exceptions to historical standards (in terms of things like missing seasons due to injury, being old because they came from Cuba, unusual promotion schedule like Yaz Jr., NOT in terms of good/bad performance) are not going to be predicted well be the model.

Dariel Alvarez and Urrutia would both be pretty much discounted due to their age, but that's not the right way to look at it, since they're exceptional. Most 25- or 27-yo minor leaguers have had opportunities a-plenty and failed to succeed, while Alvarez and Urrutia haven't due to their Cuban origin. Yaz Jr, with his unusual promotion schedule, is also exceptional. When I have some time this fall I'll look into fast promoted players, since it seems to be the new Orioles MO (viz. Walker, now Yaz).

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