Evaluate the Bedard trade

[DrungoHazewood]

This is a good point. It's not like Bedard will just walk away at the end of 2 years and they will get nothing. They'll either get draft picks, or something better, even if he won't re-sign.

But when evaluating the deal you have to assume that's the baseline. The Orioles could do exactly the same thing. Bedard's current value is the combination of his ability as a pitcher and any possible return you get from him in the future.

I think it's pretty clear that the only reason the Mariners make this deal is the assumption that his pitching will propel them into the postseason. Any value he has in trade or draft picks is a fallback. They obviously aren't dealing three top 100 prospects on the hope that they'll get one or two good prospects back in an '09 deadline deal.

[AgentOrange]

Yea, if BB likes this deal, it says something, especially thinks he believe AM is satan. (i kid BB)

The saved money is a good point...Obviously the money owed to Bedard was great for his production and Tejada's contract wasn't bad either but the bottom line is that is still about 46 million off your payroll the next 2 years...That is a lot of money.

Not to mention we may still get the same net worth out of Jones and Scott that we did out of Bedard and Tejada over the next two years.

I think it is a great job so far by MacPhail.

10 for 2 if this trade goes down. The Seattle trade had a ton more quality as well.

[centralpaosfan]

BTW, i still don't think the Orioles gained anything by waiting this long.

This is a deal I would think Seattle agrees to weeks ago.

That may be so but maybe it took this long so Mcphail could convince the Cubs to include Pie in a deal if they threw in Sherill as well. Who knows, it's all speculative.

[melankfo]

What you say seems a reasonable projection. Yesterday I checked out Butler's stats on the minor league site. Overall, his season at regular A was unimpressive, but look at the stats on his "Last 10 games". He really seemed to pull it together! Walks went way down, likewise hits per inning. Maybe that's what drew the O's attention, plus his youth and good size.

[LookinUp]

Not to mention we may still get the same net worth out of Jones and Scott that we did out of Bedard and Tejada over the next two years.

I think it is a great job so far by MacPhail.

10 for 2 if this trade goes down. The Seattle trade had a ton more quality as well.

That is the bottom line. Jones is a great get but there's a lot more to this strategy. If this trade goes down as rumored we will have added 3 high-ceiling pitching prospects to our stable (Patton, Butler, Tillman) along with a few other pitchers with very decent upside. If the Cubs rumored deal goes down you can add Gallagher, a 4th high-ceiling prospect.

What McPhail will have done is strongly increase the odds that our staff in 2010 will be very very good. Since we're dealing with prospects, it's hard to pencil anyone in. However, the more good prospects we get the better chances that we'll have a stud rotation in a couple of years.

Huge kudos to McPhail if this all goes down. This is a fundamentally strong rebuild we're watching here.

[NewMarketSean]

Wildcard is looking at this trade the wrong way. You don't win or lose when you make trades. You make the moves that you think are best for your team at that moment, and trading Bedard for a "can't miss" CF prospect in Jones and 4(!) pitching prospects is what we needed to do.

[BedardisAce]

I like the deal, especially if we can deal Sherrill at the deadline. I have a question though and I want to hear some thoughts. Mickolio certainly has a major league ready body (he's a big boy) and pitched in the majors last season (albeit two thirds of an inning). His MiL numbers don;t seem too bad. Any chance he makes the pen this year?

[Birds90]

Personally, I don't know what to think of this happening. I'm sorry if I can't be any help to this.

[Flip217]

OK, please read that article I posted. It should shed a little light on the subject for you.

I think you aren't taking into consideration how much good production for league minimum is worth.

What article? Did you write one? Why am I so confused?

In the words of Jasper Beardsley (Or was it Hans Moleman?), "There's a who in the what, now?"

[Hank Scorpio]

What article? Did you write one? Why am I so confused?

In the words of Jasper Beardsley (Or was it Hans Moleman?), "There's a who in the what, now?"

It was definitely Jasper. The Simpsons love using that quote - like where Homer steals the sugar... and the beekeepers come to buy it from him.

"The bees are on the what now?"

[kevin mason]

The O's need to get something for Bedard to rebuild the team. Waiting a year or so raises the risk of injury.

Alot of folks are way too optimistic on the players in the deal. This ain't a win/win situation, not when you trade a sure #1 pitcher.

I'm excited the O's are attempting a rebuild. They were on the right track in 1989 with the Devo/Finley/Brady. Somewhere along the lines they got off track....

[Flip217]

It was definitely Jasper. The Simpsons love using that quote - like where Homer steals the sugar... and the beekeepers come to buy it from him.

"The bees are on the what now?"

I'll have to go directly to you from now on when I'm unsure on my Simpson quotes...

But seriously, did AgentOrange write an article that I missed? I really like the Hangouter articles...

[NCRaven]

IF, the trade goes as expected...

In two trades, we receive almost an entire pitching corps -

Starters: Albers, Patton, Tillman and Butler

Relievers: Sherrill, Mickolio, Safarte;

two starting outfielders, one with future stud potential - Scott and Jones;

and a power hitting corner infield prospect, Constanzo.

And, we still have Roberts or whatever we can get for him.

No way we lose. And hopefully it will be a win-win. It does no good for our future efforts to make trades if Bedard bombs in Seattle.

[Sports Guy]

Santana yielded a poor bounty with one year to FA and Bos & NY didn't beat the Mets offer despite needing Santana, why is Bedard going to yield more? Especially since Bedard would never sign an extension in Bos & NY. Come on WC, you are really reaching now.

Both Boston and NY killed the Mets offer but the Twins were morons for waiting too long.

[AgentOrange]

What article? Did you write one? Why am I so confused?

In the words of Jasper Beardsley (Or was it Hans Moleman?), "There's a who in the what, now?"

http://ussmariner.com/2008/01/08/adam-jones-and-erik-bedard-quantified/