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Bottom line we need a real closer.

Greg

By Greg
in Orioles Talk

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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Entertaining save by Zach tonight. Everybody had fun, nobody got hurt.
Britton came in with runners on 1st and 2nd base, with 2 outs.

He faced one batter.

He struck him out.

(vs. ANGELS, 7/21)

3 up, 3 down.

7 pitches, 7 strikes.

1 strikeout.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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Save rate now 85%, slightly above Jim Johnson's 84.7% last year, slightly below league average 86.8% (as calculated by me over the weekend).

ESPN has Zach projected to be at 28 saves and 5 Blown.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31054/zach-britton

Since he is 17 and 2, if you do the math, they are only projecting, 11 more saves and 3 more blown.

Let's hope their number crunching algorithm is off.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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ESPN has Zach projected to be at 28 saves and 5 Blown.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31054/zach-britton

Since he is 17 and 2, if you do the math, they are only projecting, 11 more saves and 3 more blown.

Let's hope their number crunching algorithm is off.

Britton is 17 and 3 (blown saves.), not 17 and 2.

They are projecting 11 more saves, and 2 more blown saves.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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He's great I guess. I just have PTSD. I guess.

I suspect that a lot of Oriole fans have that.

But here's the thing ........ the Oriole PLAYERS clearly do not have that.

Not only have we seen individuals (such as Britton) bounce back after having bad games, but we have seen the team as a whole come back and win games immediately following crushing defeats on numerous occasions so far this year.

In this case ....... better US than THEM.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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He's great I guess. I just have PTSD. I guess.

The O's play so many close games compared to most teams. Since 2012 we have had exactly 200 save opportunities (not all by the closer, but by all the pitchers). No other team in baseball has had more than 179. So, we have the most chances to blow a save of any team. That's a lot of times for a fan to sit there biting his nails.

The line between an excellent closer and a bad one is razor thin. Save 89.5% and you are Mariano Rivera, a lock for the Hall of Fame. Save 80%, and you are demoted in favor of someone else. 85% is acceptable, not great. Closers with an 85% save rate keep their jobs, but nobody throws a parade for them.

In Britton's case, he'll probably get another 20 save opportunities by the time the season is over. If he blows 0-1, he'll have an above average save rate for the year. If he blows 2, he'll be almost exactly league average for the year. If he blows 3, he'll be right where he is now, just a bit below league average, but within tolerance. If he blows more than 3, people will be calling for his head. That's how thin the line really is.

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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The O's play so many close games compared to most teams. Since 2012 we have had exactly 200 save opportunities (not all by the closer, but by all the pitchers). No other team in baseball has had more than 179. So, we have the most chances to blow a save of any team. That's a lot of times for a fan to sit there biting his nails.

The line between an excellent closer and a bad one is razor thin. Save 89.5% and you are Mariano Rivera, a lock for the Hall of Fame. Save 80%, and you are demoted in favor of someone else. 85% is acceptable, not great. Closers with an 85% save rate keep their jobs, but nobody throws a parade for them.

In Britton's case, he'll probably get another 20 save opportunities by the time the season is over. If he blows 0-1, he'll have an above average save rate for the year. If he blows 2, he'll be almost exactly league average for the year. If he blows 3, he'll be right where he is now, just a bit below league average, but within tolerance. If he blows more than 3, people will be calling for his head. That's how thin the line really is.

The line is thin because wins/losses aren't the same kind of stat as hits, walks, RBI. etc. Three wins/losses could spell the difference between a division victory and being out of the playoffs entirely. And this year that's not an exaggeration.

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O's84 Hangout Grand Counsel

O's84

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The O's play so many close games compared to most teams. Since 2012 we have had exactly 200 save opportunities (not all by the closer, but by all the pitchers). No other team in baseball has had more than 179. So, we have the most chances to blow a save of any team.

Why do you think that is?

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ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

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Why do you think that is?

It's probably because the starters are mostly average and the offense is mostly above average. Not excellent in either area, so games are usually close...like if the bats put 5-6 runs on the board, chances are likely that the starter gave up 3-4 runs.

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