Was ERod too much for Andrew Miller

[CanadianOriole]

In my view this was a deal that made sense at the time and has worked out really badly - really the worst case scenario for how it could have played out.

I liked the deal at the time. We had a legit chance to win the World Series and those don't come around very often. One of the biggest perceived roadblocks to winning the title was the Tigers - their biggest weakness was the bullpen - and it was an open secret that they were after Miller too. EdRod hadn't been particularly great in AA - though he was young for the level either the season before or last year. He had a 4.79 ERA and itwas well deserved as he had a 1.44 WHIP. His prospect status was fading some.

Part of Dan's rationale worked out perfectly. Miller was outrageous and we beat the Tigers in large part due to their shaky bullpen. The "weak" Royals upset the Angels and over in the NL a superhuman LHP who could win the World Series by himself - Clayton Kershaw - got knocked out. The path to the title was wide open for us. If these were the only facts you knew about the deal - you'd have to say it was genius.

Instead of genius, literally everything else that could go wrong with the deal has. EdRod blew up the second we traded him. He was shaky his last start in Bowie - he was dominant instantly in Portland. He cut his walk rate almost in half and shaved almost 2.5 H/9 off his ratios. His velocity spiked and he started hitting 97 on the reg. He dominated the rest of the season. Meanwhile we got swept by the seemingly weak Royals - somewhere even as I type this a Royal outfielder is making a ridiculous diving catch off an Oriole line drive. Regardless, a different superhuman LHP would have beat us in the World Series by himself has we made it it seems. Then Miller signed with the Yankees of all teams and has been mega-dominant and helped them build a contender powered by a shutdown bullpen. And now EdRod has seemingly emerged to stabilize a floundering Red Sox rotation.

I can't remember a deal I liked turning into such a spectacular disaster so quickly. I still think it's pretty unlucky that it worked out like this. EdRod really wasn't showing signs of emerging like this. I understand there's always risk giving up a talented 21 year old lefty - and I wouldn't have stunned to see him emerge at 25 or something as a quality starter. To have him basically dominate from the second we make the deal is a pretty unlikely outcome.

[TGO]

We should definitely have a few more threads on this.

Anyone know who the PTBNL in the Chad Bradford trade ended up being btw?

A fellow named Cash Money.

[weams]

In my view this was a deal that made sense at the time and has worked out really badly - really the worst case scenario for how it could have played out.

I liked the deal at the time. We had a legit chance to win the World Series and those don't come around very often. One of the biggest perceived roadblocks to winning the title was the Tigers - their biggest weakness was the bullpen - and it was an open secret that they were after Miller too. EdRod hadn't been particularly great in AA - though he was young for the level either the season before or last year. He had a 4.79 ERA and itwas well deserved as he had a 1.44 WHIP. His prospect status was fading some.

Part of Dan's rationale worked out perfectly. Miller was outrageous and we beat the Tigers in large part due to their shaky bullpen. The "weak" Royals upset the Angels and over in the NL a superhuman LHP who could win the World Series by himself - Clayton Kershaw - got knocked out. The path to the title was wide open for us. If these were the only facts you knew about the deal - you'd have to say it was genius.

Instead of genius, literally everything else that could go wrong with the deal has. EdRod blew up the second we traded him. He was shaky his last start in Bowie - he was dominant instantly in Portland. He cut his walk rate almost in half and shaved almost 2.5 H/9 off his ratios. His velocity spiked and he started hitting 97 on the reg. He dominated the rest of the season. Meanwhile we got swept by the seemingly weak Royals - somewhere even as I type this a Royal outfielder is making a ridiculous diving catch off an Oriole line drive. Regardless, a different superhuman LHP would have beat us in the World Series by himself has we made it it seems. Then Miller signed with the Yankees of all teams and has been mega-dominant and helped them build a contender powered by a shutdown bullpen. And now EdRod has seemingly emerged to stabilize a floundering Red Sox rotation.

I can't remember a deal I liked turning into such a spectacular disaster so quickly. I still think it's pretty unlucky that it worked out like this. EdRod really wasn't showing signs of emerging like this. I understand there's always risk giving up a talented 21 year old lefty - and I wouldn't have stunned to see him emerge at 25 or something as a quality starter. To have him basically dominate from the second we make the deal is a pretty unlikely outcome.

We were going to win the World Series. And then suddenly we didn't. It is what World Series winners do though. Some really great young players have changed hands at the deadline. Trying desperately to win a World Series.

[24fps]

We were going to win the World Series. And then suddenly we didn't. It is what World Series winners do though. Some really great young players have changed hands at the deadline. Trying desperately to win a World Series.

I agree, except I think that the one thing this move wasn't was desperate. It strikes me as one that was completely calculated and reasonable under the circumstances. It's too bad it's beginning to look like we might "lose" the trade (horrors!), but if something like this doesn't happen to contending teams every once in a while then their FO isn't trying hard enough.

[Frobby]

We were going to win the World Series. And then suddenly we didn't. It is what World Series winners do though. Some really great young players have changed hands at the deadline. Trying desperately to win a World Series.

It would be interesting to study how many WS winners made a deadline move where they gave up a very good minor leaguer to rent a guy with an expiring contract, and how it worked out in the long term. If anyone has a good example, post it here.

Personally, I just don't feel that approach is very sound for mid-market team like ours. I care more about being competitive year in and year out than I do about getting one shot at a ring. But maybe I'd feel differently if we'd won.

[Phantom]

Sorry, I disagree, been more than one pitcher that pitched well everywhere except while on a AL East roster.

There has been more than one pitcher that has displayed that characteristic for every division in baseball. If we're counting shaky, anecdotal and SSS evidence, take a look at how much Jake struggled last year against the mighty AL East.

[Stotle]

It would be interesting to study how many WS winners made a deadline move where they gave up a very good minor leaguer to rent a guy with an expiring contract, and how it worked out in the long term. If anyone has a good example, post it here.

Personally, I just don't feel that approach is very sound for mid-market team like ours. I care more about being competitive year in and year out than I do about getting one shot at a ring. But maybe I'd feel differently if we'd won.

Good production and won (*following year):

'00 -- DBacks traded Daal/Figueroa/Padilla/Lee for Schilling -- won World Series subsequent year.

Good production but lost:

'98 -- Astros traded Halama/Guillen/Garcia for Randy Johnson -- won 102 games but got knocked out of the playoffs by the Padres. Johnson was a stud throughout the second half and post-season; team lost in playoffs.

'11 -- Phillies traded Cosart/Singleton/Santana/Zeid for Hunter Pence -- won 102 games and Pence played well through the second half/playoffs; team lost in playoffs.

'07 -- Braves traded Feliz/Andrus/Harrison for Teixeira -- missed playoffs.

Phillies made out fine so far. Astros gave up a fair amount of future big league production they could have used. Braves obviously did very very poorly on their deal.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Stotle

[CanadianOriole]

It would be interesting to study how many WS winners made a deadline move where they gave up a very good minor leaguer to rent a guy with an expiring contract, and how it worked out in the long term. If anyone has a good example, post it here.

Personally, I just don't feel that approach is very sound for mid-market team like ours. I care more about being competitive year in and year out than I do about getting one shot at a ring. But maybe I'd feel differently if we'd won.

I went back 10 years - very few significant rentals by WS winners in that time. The Giants rented Jake Peavy last year (and then resigned him) - the price was Edwin Escobar who hasn't pitched this year with shoulder issues and Heath Hembree who has a 1.08 ERA in AAA - but neither are big time prospects.

The 2011 Cardinals rented Octavio Dotel and Edwin Jackson - primarily for Colby Rasmus. Rasmus was already up - but was a young player/prospect. Rasmus has become a solid MLB regular - but I wouldn't say the Cardinals are up at night sweating this one.

No other WS winner in the last 10 years made a deadline rental move. The '12 Giants made a move for Pence but he was under contract for years to come. The rest of WS winners since '05 didn't really make any significant deadline move at all that I noticed- let alone a rental.

[AlbionHero]

The way I view it, the chances of Miller being the difference between winning a world series and not winning one is miniscule. He's one player on the 25 man roster, and plays very little. Was it worth giving up a top 100 prospect who was close to being ML ready for a 1-2% better chance at winning the world series? I don't think so, though I guess some people might. I don't like going all in for these kinds of deals unless you get a major impact player who can actually make a difference, like an Ace or a middle of the lineup star.

[Creamsicle]

I agree, except I think that the one thing this move wasn't was desperate. It strikes me as one that was completely calculated and reasonable under the circumstances. It's too bad it's beginning to look like we might "lose" the trade (horrors!), but if something like this doesn't happen to contending teams every once in a while then their FO isn't trying hard enough.

Frames is right.

[Creamsicle]

It would be interesting to study how many WS winners made a deadline move where they gave up a very good minor leaguer to rent a guy with an expiring contract, and how it worked out in the long term. If anyone has a good example, post it here...

I seem to recall David Cone changing addresses at the end of July every single year in the early 90s...?

[PaulFolk]

I seem to recall David Cone changing addresses at the end of July every single year in the early 90s...?

Only twice for Cone -- '92 and '95.

In '92 he was traded to the Blue Jays, who won the World Series.

In '95 he was traded to Buck Showalter's Yankees, who were eliminated in the ALDS.

[weams]

I seem to recall David Cone changing addresses at the end of July every single year in the early 90s...?

Andy LaRoche and minor league reliever Bryan Morris went to the Pirates from the Dodgers, with the Red Sox sending change-of-scenery relief candidate Craig Hansen along with outfield prospect Brandon Moss to Pittsburgh. The Pirates sent Bay to Boston, and the Sox sent Ramirez to the Dodgers

Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama for Randy Johnson.

Heathcliff Slocumb for two prospects: catcher Jason Varitek and pitcher Derek Lowe.

Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Mark Teixeira

Matt Laporta and Michael Brantley for CC Sabathia.

Cliff Lee for Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson.

Nomar Garciaparra, to the Cubs along with prospect Matt Murton. The Cubs sent Francis Beltran, Alex Gonzalez and Brendan Harris to the Expos, and minor leaguer Justin Jones to the Twins. The Expos sent Orlando Cabrera to the Red Sox to replace Nomar, and the Twins sent first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz to Boston.

Bartolo Colon for Lee Stevens and prospects: infielder Cliff Lee, outfielder Grady Sizemore and shortstop Brandon Phillips.

[gmelson26]

It would be interesting to study how many WS winners made a deadline move where they gave up a very good minor leaguer to rent a guy with an expiring contract, and how it worked out in the long term. If anyone has a good example, post it here.

Personally, I just don't feel that approach is very sound for mid-market team like ours. I care more about being competitive year in and year out than I do about getting one shot at a ring. But maybe I'd feel differently if we'd won.

Agreed. Ultimately we cannot afford to deplete our minors as we cannot supplement this loss by huge and/or numerous signings. This I think is particularly true now while we have a fairly poor minor league system (in terms of future prospects).

[BMann]

Having experienced the Glenn Davis trade, I find it hard to complain about the Miller deal. We got exactly what we wanted out of it - a shutdown reliever who performed precisely how we hoped he would. And we were *this* close to finally get back to the WS, due in no small part to Miller's presence.

Even if ERod goes on to become the next Curt Shilling, this deal wasn't nearly as bad as that Davis monstrosity. Then again, that was one of MLB's worst trades ever, so maybe my bar is a little low when it comes to trades...!