Who says we don't have an ace?

[BRobinsonfan]

I don't know what I'm watching anymore. This is not supposed to work. Strikeouts are at an all time high in the game and somehow the Orioles staff pitches pretty well with a flyball staff that doesn't strike anyone out in front of a mostly mediocre outfield defense in a park that increases homers. I can only attribute it to infield defense that mostly makes up for it, coupled with some sort of magic pixie dust that further suppresses BABIP.

Fluke or no, it's fun to win. I'd just be curious how this rotation would look pitching in front of say, Cleveland's defense.

The Orioles are 5th in KO's in the American League.

[Babypowder]

The Orioles are 5th in KO's in the American League.

We're talking about the starters. They are 13th out of 15 in the AL in K/9.

The entire staff is 14th in K/9, and in total Ks. Not sure where you're getting your numbers.

[allquixotic]

I don't know what I'm watching anymore. This is not supposed to work. Strikeouts are at an all time high in the game and somehow the Orioles staff pitches pretty well with a flyball staff that doesn't strike anyone out in front of a mostly mediocre outfield defense in a park that increases homers. I can only attribute it to infield defense that mostly makes up for it, coupled with some sort of magic pixie dust that further suppresses BABIP.

Fluke or no, it's fun to win. I'd just be curious how this rotation would look pitching in front of say, Cleveland's defense.

I agree that it is not just raw starter talent that is making them successful. Every win is a team win. We have "enough" of the things we need. Enough defense. Enough (and timely) hitting. Enough starting pitching. The only thing that you would be very hard pressed to call a fluke is our bullpen -- they are definitely NOT a fluke, and they would still dominate if they pitched for a club with worse defenders, even if they were challenged by having to face more batters due to errors. More often than not they would pick up the slack.

It seems to be a self-sustaining cycle where one good thing contributes to and improves another, which then feeds back into the first.

Good defense helps our starters go further in the game, rather than extending their batters faced unnecessarily. It's great for run prevention and lowering pitch counts.

Starters going deeper into games keeps our pen fresh, so when we trot out Miller or O'Day or Britton, we know we can count on them. Even the less effective pen arms have been pretty fresh for much of the season.

An effective bullpen helps our lineup because it means the position players can celebrate an uplifting win, even if they don't score any runs in the late innings, assuming we manage to get a lead off their starter, even if it's only a 1-run lead.

A high-morale lineup defends well and wants to put in the effort to run down those hard catches. And so it feeds back into the first step.

You can't look at one specific thing and say "that's why we're winning". It's the combination of all the little successes everywhere. Winning is comprehensive.

[allquixotic]

13th in starter ERA. 28th in FIP. 25th in K/9. 28th in BB/9.

Better than the Rays, Tigers, A's, Mariners, and Royals rotations? Nah.

Those are season numbers. It would be appreciated if you could run the numbers since the All Star Break. I think we'll look better. We might still not be as good in raw SP numbers as the Rays, Tigers, A's, Mariners and Royals rotations, but I'm confident we'd be better than 13th in ERA and 28th in BB/9.

In fact, in the MSS (Medium Sample Size -- not large enough to be conclusive, but big enough to be something to muse about) since Ubaldo has departed the rotation, I'm sure our BB/9 ranking has been skyrocketing at Mach 3 towards the top of the pack.

[Babypowder]

Those are season numbers. It would be appreciated if you could run the numbers since the All Star Break. I think we'll look better. We might still not be as good in raw SP numbers as the Rays, Tigers, A's, Mariners and Royals rotations, but I'm confident we'd be better than 13th in ERA and 28th in BB/9.

In fact, in the MSS (Medium Sample Size -- not large enough to be conclusive, but big enough to be something to muse about) since Ubaldo has departed the rotation, I'm sure our BB/9 ranking has been skyrocketing at Mach 3 towards the top of the pack.

I have no doubt we would look better. Just as every team would look better if I only included their best 1 month stretch of starting pitching.

[Il BuonO]

I do. Chris needs more consistency if he wants to be recognized as an ace. His overall stats for the past few years aren't extraordinary, especially considering the defense he's pitching with. Because he goes through ace-like stretches and then loses it and looks like a bum for a while. That's the difference between him and guys like Kershaw, Hernandez, and Scherzer right now.

Idk about bum but I agree with the overall thought here. He's not quite at the level of the guys you've listed. Felix just threw a bad game and gave up 2 earned over 5 IP. Before that you have to go back to May when gave up 4 over 8 IP. That's a lot of starts in between. Chris has games when he's given up 7, 8, 6 & 5. And three of those four were over a span of four games at the end of May and beginning of June.

His ERA is there. His stuff is getting there. His FB tonight was a huge improvement over what we were seeing earlier in the year. The one thing that still needs to improve to be in the league of Price-Scherzer-Kershaw is the efficiency to challenge hitters and go deep in games. He has exactly two complete games in his career.

Chris' ERA is now 3.55 after being at 5.20 on June 5th. Again, he's not really in the same league as the other guys mentioned here. Yet. And I don't think CG is a good barometer either. He easily could have finished that game but why? To pad a stat sheet? Buck is doing a great job keeping our guys fresh heading into the PO. Chris needs to become more consistent if he wants to be thought of as the other group here.

He is doing a very good job commanding his pitches lately. Not since I was at Camden Yards back on July 2nd has he walked as many as four in one game. In his last seven starts he has walked a total of six, increasing his SO along the way.

I have to temper my praise for the guy because he's my favorite Oriole pitcher to watch and I still feel he can get better. And besides, he was pegged to regress this year.

[VeveJones007]

Stats since the break:

ERA - 2.92 (3rd in AL)

FIP - 3.34 (5th)

xFIP - 3.55 (5th)

I don't think they're THIS good, but I still think they're a good pitching staff overall.

[25 Nuggets]

I agree we don't have the best rotation in the league, but screw FIP. I've been watching great starting pitching for three months now.

The team FIP is horrible and yet the outfield defense from Jones and Markakis are always in negs. What does SABR have against the Orioles?

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree we don't have the best rotation in the league, but screw FIP. I've been watching great starting pitching for three months now.

Why is it so hard to admit that a big part of that performance is defense? I'm ok with the idea that you put Tillman, Norris, Chen, and Gonzalez in front of, say, the 1988 Orioles defense their ERAs would all be a run higher.

[DrungoHazewood]

And I don't think CG is a good barometer either. He easily could have finished that game but why? To pad a stat sheet?

Complete games tell you little about the quality of a pitcher, but a lot about the quality and maturity of a league.

[Frobby]

Why is it so hard to admit that a big part of that performance is defense? I'm ok with the idea that you put Tillman, Norris, Chen, and Gonzalez in front of, say, the 1988 Orioles defense their ERAs would all be a run higher.

I'm fine with it, too. You can't argue that the O's have one of the best defenses in MLB on the one hand, and then argue that it doesn't benefit the pitchers on the other hand. I just think our pitching is better than they are given credit for. And, I feel like almost every time an Oriole pitcher has a good season, his FIP is a half-run higher than his ERA. At the end of the day, I just want to see our pitchers keep runs off the board, no matter how they do it.

[Redskins Rick]

Complete games tell you little about the quality of a pitcher, but a lot about the quality and maturity of a league.

I like quality starts as a good barometer to gauge a pitcher's efforts on a given night.

[bobmc]

Yeah, I see you started a thread making this point, while I was writing the OP. Feel free to pursue your point in that thread. My point here is I'm comfortable matching Tillman against some other team's top pitcher, even the playoff-bound teams. He's on fire.

And he's also calm!

Beautiful to watch as he and Hundley worked their way through the order, as challenged as the order is at the moment. Three hits - Gillaspie, Abreu, Ramirez and Garcia are all quality MLB hitters. True, Dunn is a shadow of his former self but he is still dangerous.

[DrungoHazewood]

I like quality starts as a good barometer to gauge a pitcher's efforts on a given night.

Quality starts is fine. It tells you something. It's not meaningless. But I don't know why anyone would use it when most folks have 24/7/365 access to baseball-reference and Fangraphs and don't have to use arbitrary things like that.

It's like a lot of numbers that folks defend. They're fine if you're stuck somewhere that your only access to baseball knowledge is a small-town newspaper that just happens to list Quality Starts but almost nothing else. But otherwise, meh. I think I get a lot more out of a simple list of the pitcher's line scores, or if you want one number, his Game Score.

[Redskins Rick]

Quality starts is fine. It tells you something. It's not meaningless. But I don't know why anyone would use it when most folks have 24/7/365 access to baseball-reference and Fangraphs and don't have to use arbitrary things like that.

It's like a lot of numbers that folks defend. They're fine if you're stuck somewhere that your only access to baseball knowledge is a small-town newspaper that just happens to list Quality Starts but almost nothing else. But otherwise, meh. I think I get a lot more out of a simple list of the pitcher's line scores, or if you want one number, his Game Score.

True,

But in some cases, if you hear this:

Tillman has recorded 14 consecutive starts

You know right off the bat, that the pitcher has been pitching strongly.

Personally, I like Quality Starts, when looking at my fantasy team pitchers, just one of the quick barometers that I use, without wanting or having time to dig into more detail stats.