Nick Markakis: 2.1 rWAR, 2.5fWAR (valued at $13.9 mm)

[CA-ORIOLE]

Couple of thoughts...First, WAR is pretty terrible/worthless IMO. Fun for conversations, but a terrible tool for building a team (not indicting you for using it, just saying this because so many on the board are going to use WAR to justify or not justify potential signings). It's like using the cost per mile of driving/owning a Ferrari to estimate how much I should pay per mile for using my Honda Fit. Second, the suppression of offense all over MLB baseball is stunning. Markakis' .729 OPS equals 107 OPS+ this year. His .801 OPS in 2009 equaled 108 OPS+. It really is a new era. Third, I don't think DD uses WAR at all. I think they are using some metrics, but some internally developed tools or tools borrowed from another team. If Markakis was not a long-time Oriole, then I think there is no way that DD would pay Markakis anywhere near his "market value". DD is cheap, but in a good way (in general). Fourth, of course Markakis' real value and what it would cost to replace him will probably play a very, very tiny role in his resigning. He's a life-long Oriole, a decent player, and the organization almost certainly wants to retain him.

By the way, I think a lot more teams are going to start spending money like DD and others and not like the Yankees. I could see Markakis getting far less on the market than his supposed WAR value. Especially if the O's give him a qualifying offer and he walks (I don't think he would walk, of course, but just imagining). No way would I give up a draft pick and big dollars for Markakis. But of course this is all mute because he will sign a mutually digestible two or three year deal with the O's.

The WAR "price" is based on free agent dollars and adjusted yearly. So, yes it doesn't mean you have to (or should) pay those dollars to get that production. In fact that strategy is a losing proposition for a low to mid market team. DD has mentioned WAR in the past and I'm sure every team has internal evaluation tools and enhancements by now. likely based on the fundamental constructs of WAR.

[Ohfan67]

The WAR "price" is based on free agent dollars and adjusted yearly. So, yes it doesn't mean you have to (or should) pay those dollars to get that production. In fact that strategy is a losing proposition for a low to mid market team. DD has mentioned WAR in the past and I'm sure every team has internal evaluation tools and enhancements by now. likely based on the fundamental constructs of WAR.

I would love to see how DD and the organization evaluates bargain basement players. I wonder and suspect that they are using novel saber metrics to evaluate these guys.

[Frobby]

The WAR "price" is based on free agent dollars and adjusted yearly. So, yes it doesn't mean you have to (or should) pay those dollars to get that production. In fact that strategy is a losing proposition for a low to mid market team. DD has mentioned WAR in the past and I'm sure every team has internal evaluation tools and enhancements by now. likely based on the fundamental constructs of WAR.

I agree with all this. However, while teams don't have to pay FA prices to get the specified production, the methodology used by fangraphs suggests that enough teams do pay it so that a market exists for the available free agents at roughly the prices fangraphs suggests. It's not like 2-2.5 WAR outfielders are so bountiful in major league farm systems that you can just pay one $500 k any time you feel like it, or pick one up for free from some other team which has extras lying around.

I think it's pretty doubtful that David Lough or Alejandro de Aza will be as good a player as Nick Markakis over the next couple of years. More likely, you'd need to find a RH platoon partner for either one to hope that the combo would be as good or better than Nick. That might be worthwhile given what Nick will cost.

[atomic]

Still hoping the O's view his market as strong enough that they can make a QO.

Qualifying offer won't happen. His option would cost 15.5 million that is right about where Qualifying offer would be. So they would just pick up the option.

[LoyalBirdFan]

Qualifying offer won't happen. His option would cost 15.5 million that is right about where Qualifying offer would be. So they would just pick up the option.

This is right, the Os would have to buy him out and I believe that's a 2 million dollar right there.

I think it's possible, if they can't re-work something, the Orioles pick the option up and let it play after next year. I don't see the Orioles letting him walk, but it's possible.

[Babypowder]

I agree with all this. However, while teams don't have to pay FA prices to get the specified production, the methodology used by fangraphs suggests that enough teams do pay it so that a market exists for the available free agents at roughly the prices fangraphs suggests. It's not like 2-2.5 WAR outfielders are so bountiful in major league farm systems that you can just pay one $500 k any time you feel like it, or pick one up for free from some other team which has extras lying around.

I think it's pretty doubtful that David Lough or Alejandro de Aza will be as good a player as Nick Markakis over the next couple of years. More likely, you'd need to find a RH platoon partner for either one to hope that the combo would be as good or better than Nick. That might be worthwhile given what Nick will cost.

From 2011 to 2014 De Aza has been worth 8.9 fWAR, Markakis has been worth 5.8.

2013-2014, David Lough has been worth 4.1 fWAR in part time play, only 533 PAs. Markakis has been worth 2.5 wins (he was replacement level in 2013).

I don't see it as far fetched at all, since we are using fWAR as a value indicator in this thread.

[Can_of_corn]

Qualifying offer won't happen. His option would cost 15.5 million that is right about where Qualifying offer would be. So they would just pick up the option.

Huh? What does one have to do with the other?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I would love to see how DD and the organization evaluates bargain basement players. I wonder and suspect that they are using novel saber metrics to evaluate these guys.

I suspect they are doing things much like the A's do with ML talent. Use data mining to identify undervalued or potentially undervalued players and turn that information over to their scouting folks for further evaluation. Ideally the analytics and scouting should be seamless in a good organization. Maybe one weighted more heavily than the other based on organizational philosophy.

Weams has mentioned several times previously that the Orioles have invested more heavily in analytic software since DD took over. This should not be surprising. Not to mention the turnover and change in scouting.

[LoyalBirdFan]

Huh? What does one have to do with the other?

I think he's saying Nick would take the QO. The Orioles pay him 2 million to buy him out, then make a QO (probably 15.5M) and that's 17.5M right there. I doubt Nick would turn it down so you might as well pay him for the last year.

[Can_of_corn]

I think he's saying Nick would take the QO. The Orioles pay him 2 million to buy him out, then make a QO (probably 15.5M) and that's 17.5M right there. I doubt Nick would turn it down so you might as well pay him for the last year.

That would be why I was hoping that the O's research shows his market is strong enough to warrant one.

I still think that Nick is held in high enough regard, within the league, that someone will overpay for him.

[bobmc]

Manny obviously.

What with him not scouting the Tigers and all, he can't wait to get out of town.

How dare him rehab in California instead of travel with the team.

And visit Penny at Cheesecake while ballgame is being played...wtf??? :cussing:

Penny though...

But back to Nick's worth and QO's and stuff...:slytf:

[CA-ORIOLE]

You can tell me his stats value him at 13.9M. The market isn't based on WAR, it's based on a team willing to pay a number for you. I'd put money on no team giving Markakis a 1 year 13-14M contract or a multi year contract approaching that annual salary. Will David Lough equal Markakis's production? Probably not, but at 500K I'll take my chances. De Aza will be around 5-6M. Again, I'll take my chances there, not that Markakis is actually going to get 13.9M.

Of course value always boils down to supply and demand, but lets not pretend a WAR/dollar evaluation is unique or all that dissimilar from other attempts to valuate "markets" and that agents and/or teams don't use it it to evaluate contracts to their potential advantage, or that the WAR "price" is totally uselss. Besides the "market", every player is different in his individual skills and risk assessment and what that player may do going forward.

Also, typically you only need 2 buyers to make a market. In baseball you can often do it with one.

[Can_of_corn]

Of course value always boils down to supply and demand, but lets not pretend a WAR/dollar evaluation is unique and that agents and/or teams don't use it it to evaluate contracts to their potential advantage or that the WAR "price" is totally uselss. Besides the "market", every player is different in his individual skills and risk assessment.

Also, typically you only need 2 buyers to make a market. In baseball you can often do it with one.

Particularly if it is the Mariners.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Qualifying offer won't happen. His option would cost 15.5 million that is right about where Qualifying offer would be. So they would just pick up the option.

That's assuming they want him back. If they want the pick, you give him the QO and hope he rejects it.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Particularly if it is the Mariners.

That's a fairly good case in point.