Fangraphs predicts the Orioles offseason

[waroriole]

Poor prediction. I don't think Cameron gets anything right.

He really doesn't.

[weams]

He really doesn't.

Certainly not his forte. He appears to be a bit better at statistical analysis of Mariners.

[waroriole]

Certainly not his forte. He appears to be a bit better at statistical analysis of Mariners.

As long as the analysis fits his preconceived notions.

[weams]

As long as the analysis fits his preconceived notions.

You mean about players he is already a fanboy of?

[waroriole]

You mean about players he is already a fanboy of?

Yep, because we all know there's only one way to be a good player.

[weams]

Yep, because we all know there's only one way to be a good player.

You mean that guys with two tools or two pitches can't possibly succeed? Or guys who swing and miss but club 30 a year while OBP 313 are not valuable?

[Frobby]

You mean that guys with two tools or two pitches can't possibly succeed? Or guys who swing and miss but club 30 a year while OBP 313 are not valuable?

That equation is changing all the time. The league OBP is 20 points lower than it was in 2009 and HR/game down .24 per game. Thus, the tradeoff between HR and OBP is very different today than 5 years ago. .313 OBP is barely below average (.316 in the AL) and 30 HR would rank 9th. Five years ago .313 would have been way below average (.336) and 30 HR still very good, but not quite as impressive as today (tied for 13th). So, I won't hold Cameron to something he might have said a few years back when the situation is different now. However, I suspect .313 OBP and 30 HR was pretty valuable even five years ago.

[weams]

That equation is changing all the time. The league OBP is 20 points lower than it was in 2009 and HR/game down .24 per game. Thus, the tradeoff between HR and OBP is very different today than 5 years ago. .313 OBP is barely below average (.316 in the AL) and 30 HR would rank 9th. Five years ago .313 would have been way below average (.336) and 30 HR still very good, but not quite as impressive as today (tied for 13th). So, I won't hold Cameron to something he might have said a few years back when the situation is different now. However, I suspect .313 OBP and 30 HR was pretty valuable even five years ago.

I do too. Thanks.

[Dark Helmet]

I think if Burnett really wants to play he could replace Liriano in Pittsburgh (If his price is realistic). I could see him signing with Atlanta. Other then that, he's shunned us so much I could careless about him.

[waroriole]

That equation is changing all the time. The league OBP is 20 points lower than it was in 2009 and HR/game down .24 per game. Thus, the tradeoff between HR and OBP is very different today than 5 years ago. .313 OBP is barely below average (.316 in the AL) and 30 HR would rank 9th. Five years ago .313 would have been way below average (.336) and 30 HR still very good, but not quite as impressive as today (tied for 13th). So, I won't hold Cameron to something he might have said a few years back when the situation is different now. However, I suspect .313 OBP and 30 HR was pretty valuable even five years ago.

I think his point (and mine) was that there is an excessive focus on BB rate for hitters and K rate for P. They don't seem to allow for any variation from this formula for success.

[tntoriole]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-free-agent-predictions/

These predictions are written by someone who knows absolutely nothing about the Baltimore Orioles. AJ Burnett can go suck eggs. He is a diversion and a jerk and can't pitch- other than that he would be a great addition. Mark Reynolds? LOL. Lord, spare us.

[25 Nuggets]

I think the good news is, if this is really what media outlets think the Orioles are going to do, they have zero inside information on the Orioles.

[weams]

I think the good news is, if this is really what media outlets think the Orioles are going to do, they have zero inside information on the Orioles.

If we had not noticed, with this front office, Adam Jones is the closest thing they have to a leak. Those guys are gone.

[Hallas]

I think his point (and mine) was that there is an excessive focus on BB rate for hitters and K rate for P. They don't seem to allow for any variation from this formula for success.

2014 Adam Jones and 2013 Manny Machado were 5-6 win players despite having a terrible walk rate. Brandon Webb pre-shoulder was a 6-ish win player.

[weams]