Nelson Cruz Officially Declines Orioles Qualifying Offer (and 3 yr deal?)

[Can_of_corn]

Buck was on Hot Stove and Rosenthal asked about where the team was on the Markakis and Cruz issues. He avoided talking about Markakis, but said he was more confident about resigning Cruz than he was before the meetings. They have been talking on the phone and are planning on doing lunch in Texas soon.

If they sign Cruz I am going to consider it him having cost the O's another draft pick.

So just add the value of that pick to whatever contract the O's give him.

[Tx Oriole]

The guy is a failed test away from being suspended a year. You can say 12m is an insult. But Cruz is a huge risk in more ways then just age.

ThAts implying he is still on the juice.

[gmelson26]

If they sign Cruz I am going to consider it him having cost the O's another draft pick.

So just add the value of that pick to whatever contract the O's give him.

It's a good point. I agree.

[Guest]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Regarding <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mariners?src=hash">#Mariners</a> and Nelson Cruz…will have to beat Orioles' offer, which is currently three years. Would also lose a draft pick</p>— Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="

">November 14, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[backwardsk]

If they sign Cruz I am going to consider it him having cost the O's another draft pick.

So just add the value of that pick to whatever contract the O's give him.

Never mind, long day

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dark Helmet]

ThAts implying he is still on the juice.

No it's not. It's implying if he was and got busted he's lost for a year. I don't think Cruz is still on anything. Im just saying it is an added risk to signing him. I want Cruz back, but not at 4/60. I would go 3/48. I think he'll be good for 30 HR for two of the three years.

[Dark Helmet]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Regarding <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mariners?src=hash">#Mariners</a> and Nelson Cruz…will have to beat Orioles' offer, which is currently three years. Would also lose a draft pick</p>— Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="

">November 14, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Cruz doesn't want to be a Mariner. He turned more down from them last year then he's looking for this offseason. I had read before he doesn't want to play on west coast.

[25 Nuggets]

I think that QO is going to haunt Cruz again. This could play right into the team's hands -- a "reasonable" three year deal.

I disagree about the pick comment. Cruz cost the team a 2nd round pick. That is what is attached to the deal. We don't know the end game yet.

[Can_of_corn]

I think that QO is going to haunt Cruz again. This could play right into the team's hands -- a "reasonable" three year deal.

I disagree about the pick comment. Cruz cost the team a 2nd round pick. That is what is attached to the deal. We don't know the end game yet.

I said if.

If Cruz signs with the O's they don't get a pick.

If Cruz signs with another team the O's get a pick.

Signing Cruz would cost the O's a pick.

Unless you think Cruz is going to wait till the all star break to sign.

[stomperspc]

I said if.

If Cruz signs with the O's they don't get a pick.

If Cruz signs with another team the O's get a pick.

Signing Cruz would cost the O's a pick.

Unless you think Cruz is going to wait till the all star break to sign.

You can't lose something you don't yet have.

I get what you are saying, but I don't think its a fair or accurate way to look at the situation. At the very least is a pessimistic way to look at it. The draft pick is a consolation prize if you can't re-sign your free agent. Nobody mourns winning the grand prize and "missing out" on the consolation prize. Given the success rates of draft picks, I am not sure you can say with any sort of confidence that a 2nd round pick is more valuable than 3 more years of Cruz. Odds are much better of 3 years of Cruz being more valuable than the draft pick.

[Can_of_corn]

You can't lose something you don't yet have.

I get what you are saying, but I don't think its a fair or accurate way to look at the situation. At the very least is a pessimistic way to look at it. The draft pick is a consolation prize if you can't re-sign your free agent. Nobody mourns winning the grand prize and "missing out" on the consolation prize. Given the success rates of draft picks, I am not sure you can say with any sort of confidence that a 2nd round pick is more valuable than 3 more years of Cruz. Odds are much better of 3 years of Cruz being more valuable than the draft pick.

Sure, I'm pessimistic.

It would also be a first round pick not a second round pick. It would also mean more pool money, which if used wisely could be more useful then the pick.

Are you satisfied with the the players in Tony's top 10? I'm not. Best way to build the farm these days is the draft.

[stomperspc]

Sure, I'm pessimistic.

It would also be a first round pick not a second round pick. It would also mean more pool money, which if used wisely could be more useful then the pick.

Are you satisfied with the the players in Tony's top 10? I'm not. Best way to build the farm these days is the draft.

My bad on the first round/second round pick error. It doesn't change my opinion much, though. Painting the cost of Cruz as being be the value of his contract plus a draft pick is twisting around the reality of the situation to make it seem like a more costly move than it is.

[Can_of_corn]

My bad on the first round/second round pick error. It doesn't change my opinion much, though. Painting the cost of Cruz as being be the value of his contract plus a draft pick is twisting around the reality of the situation to make it seem like a more costly move than it is.

If he signs with the O's and you have evidence that the O's cost was reduced by the presence of the QO I would certainly take that into consideration.

[scOtt]

Maybe three hour.

Three minute deal would probably be more than enough.

[scOtt]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Regarding <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mariners?src=hash">#Mariners</a> and Nelson Cruz…will have to beat Orioles' offer, which is currently three years. Would also lose a draft pick</p>— Bob Dutton (@TNT_Mariners) <a href="

">November 14, 2014</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That (lost) draft pick might really help us.