Time to Get Fowler? (Traded to Cubs)

[srock]

Tyler Wilson might be interesting to them but has very little chance to make our rotation. He is worth 0 war to us but may be worth 2-3 War to them.

If they are interested in a Tyler Wilson tier of player, then get it done

#12 prospect and a 5th starter projection according to Tony.

[Malike]

I think they plan on keeping Fowler, they have good OBP at the first two spots in the lineup, and a ton of power after that. They should be a pretty good offensive team.

[O-The-Memories]

If we can get Carter we'd solve a lot of potential problems. You have him play first if Manny is out, with Davis hopefully playing a passable third base. If Manny is back, he's your DH. Pearce can play right and DeAza can play in left, with Lough spelling both if needed. Castro fixes our catcher problem if/when Matt leaves, because I think he's about a 2 WAR player at a fraction of the cost. I don't think Castro and Carter would cost a whole bunch either. With both of them, we can live without Fowler. I think Carter and Castro combine to give you about 3-4 WAR, and will cost you about $10 mil/year total, which is a good deal. Plus, either guy would make a decent bench option, with Lough and Flaherty as the other two guys on your bench.

[srock]

If we can get Carter we'd solve a lot of potential problems. You have him play first if Manny is out, with Davis hopefully playing a passable third base. If Manny is back, he's your DH. Pearce can play right and DeAza can play in left, with Lough spelling both if needed. Castro fixes our catcher problem if/when Matt leaves, because I think he's about a 2 WAR player at a fraction of the cost. I don't think Castro and Carter would cost a whole bunch either. With both of them, we can live without Fowler. I think Carter and Castro combine to give you about 3-4 WAR, and will cost you about $10 mil/year total, which is a good deal. Plus, either guy would make a decent bench option, with Lough and Flaherty as the other two guys on your bench.

I hope we stay far clear of Fowler.

Castro would be interesting but there's very little need to try to make something happen there.

Carter... now we're talking.

Carter's contract situation is much better then Fowler, not a FA until 2019, made $2 million last year.

He is more of a free swinging power guy though. Fowler's OBP would be nice to have.

Overall, Carter is preferable, but it comes down to what they want for either of them. Both are good fits.

[Babypowder]

Carter's contract situation is much better then Fowler, not a FA until 2019, made $2 million last year.

He is more of a free swinging power guy though. Fowler's OBP would be nice to have.

Overall, Carter is preferable, but it comes down to what they want for either of them. Both are good fits.

Carter has some OBP potential that he may have started to tap in the second half of 2014. He posted solid OBPs in the minors and his second half OBP in 2014 was around .350. I'd defintiely be interested in Carter as a DH.

[25 Nuggets]

Carter has some OBP potential that he may have started to tap in the second half of 2014. He posted solid OBPs in the minors and his second half OBP in 2014 was around .350. I'd defintiely be interested in Carter as a DH.

I'm not that high on Carter -- for the price I imagine they would ask for him. He's right handed and strikes out a ton. Improving his OBP would be a big help. But I'm sure the team understands he's under control until 2019. Evan Gattis cost three prospects.

[Babypowder]

I'm not that high on Carter -- for the price I imagine they would ask for him. He's right handed and strikes out a ton. Improving his OBP would be a big help. But I'm sure the team understands he's under control until 2019. Evan Gattis cost three prospects.

Obviously it would depend on the price but if the adjustment he made has made him what he was in the second half going forward, it's definitely something I'd be interested in. Strike outs don't bother me if they're attached to a 138 wRC+.

[Orioles0615]

My guess is we do nothing

[HobCreek]

I don't know much about him but just glancing at his offensive stats he looks like Nick Markakis-Lite. Strikes out considerably more, walks a bit more. (Fowler that is)

[Number5]

Problem is - you have no idea what you're going to get with de Aza and even Rasmus - so you can't assume Fowler is just a slight upgrade. He might be a very large upgrade.

It seems to me that you have that backwards and that you are the one going on a thin-ice assumption. Fowler will cost more, both in salary and player acquisition cost than either De Aza or Rasmus. In order to pull that trigger, one would have to assume that Fowler will definitely be that very large upgrade over the other two players.

[Babypowder]

I don't know much about him but just glancing at his offensive stats he looks like Nick Markakis-Lite. Strikes out considerably more, walks a bit more. (Fowler that is)

I don't think it's fair to call the guy with the 124 wRC+ a lite version of the guy with the 106 wRC+.

[25 Nuggets]

I don't know much about him but just glancing at his offensive stats he looks like Nick Markakis-Lite. Strikes out considerably more, walks a bit more. (Fowler that is)

He's a switch hitting CF that should be playing corner OF. Markakis was already a corner OF. Fowler is steady offensively while Kakes is trending downwards:

Fowler oWAR (2009-2014)

2.3

1.5

2.7

3.8

2.1

3.8

Markakis oWAR (2009-2014)

3.2

3.4

2.2

2.5

0.3

1.9

Fowler can still steal bases (11/15 in 2014) and has a considerable OBP advantage on Kakes the last three seasons (.378 to .342). Finally, Fowler is two years younger. For a lead off hitter, he's an upgrade.

[Aristotelian]

It seems to me that you have that backwards and that you are the one going on a thin-ice assumption. Fowler will cost more, both in salary and player acquisition cost than either De Aza or Rasmus. In order to pull that trigger, one would have to assume that Fowler will definitely be that very large upgrade over the other two players.

Fowler will cost maybe $1-2M more than Rasmus but has way better career numbers. Rasmus has hit .225 or less for three of the last four seasons. We are MUCH more likely to get a 3+ oWAR from Fowler than we are from Rasmus. I would pay $2M and a prospect for that.

I don't think it is meaningful to choose between Fowler and De Aza. I would like to have both with Pearce being our primary DH and spending some platoon time at 1B and OF.

[Babypowder]

He's a switch hitting CF that should be playing corner OF. Markakis was already a corner OF. Fowler is steady offensively while Kakes is trending downwards:

Fowler oWAR (2009-2014)

2.3

1.5

2.7

3.8

2.1

3.8

Markakis oWAR (2009-2014)

3.2

3.4

2.2

2.5

0.3

1.9

Fowler can still steal bases (11/15 in 2014) and has a considerable OBP advantage on Kakes the last three seasons (.378 to .342). Finally, Fowler is two years younger. For a lead off hitter, he's an upgrade.

I like Fowler and think he's a solid target. However, those oWARs are as a center fielder, they may come down with a move to corner outfield. He likely won't take as big a hit defensively however so the overall value could remain stagnant or even improve.

[oriole]

It seems to me that you have that backwards and that you are the one going on a thin-ice assumption. Fowler will cost more, both in salary and player acquisition cost than either De Aza or Rasmus. In order to pull that trigger, one would have to assume that Fowler will definitely be that very large upgrade over the other two players.

No one can say anything definite. Lough could be our biggest offensive contributor for all we know. Rasmus and De Aza are more of a gamble. It wouldn't surprise me to see them having bigger years than Fowler but recent history suggests not.