Fangraphs: 10 Years of Team Perforamce/Projections

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/10-years-of-team-performance-10-years-of-team-projections/

What if we just looked at the last five years?

Now the Orioles show up. And while the Orioles are at +26 wins over five years, they?re actually at +44 wins over three years.

O's are at -1 over 10 years. It looks like them completely missing the mark with the O's is a recent phenomenon.

[byrdz]

Interesting, I like these parts.

Because the Orioles have been better than expected for three years in a row, for the most part, consensus is mounting that there’s just something special about them.

It’s difficult to believe the Orioles have just figured something amazing out. It’s not impossible, but they might well be the first.

Of course they're special and have figured out the magic formula. The Blue Jays tried to steal him.

[waroriole]

Interesting, I like these parts.

Of course they're special and have figured out the magic formula. The Blue Jays tried to steal him.

What's interesting is fangraphs doesn't consider something is wrong with their system.

[Can_of_corn]

What's interesting is fangraphs doesn't consider something is wrong with their system.

Overall why should they?

Look at the chart I posted, over a 10 year period it has been pretty good. It would take more then a three year run for me to just go ahead and scrap it.

[waroriole]

Overall why should they?

Look at the chart I posted, over a 10 year period it has been pretty good. It would take more then a three year run for me to just go ahead and scrap it.

I'm not saying scrap it, but when you don't consider a tweak as a possibility, I don't like the hubris.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm not saying scrap it, but when you don't consider a tweak as a possibility, I don't like the hubris.

Did you see the parts byrdz quoted?

[waroriole]

Did you see the parts byrdz quoted?

It reads to me as though they're saying the O's are an outlier. They haven't discovered something FG didn't account for, they're just an outlier.

[SteveA]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/10-years-of-team-performance-10-years-of-team-projections/

O's are at -1 over 10 years. It looks like them completely missing the mark with the O's is a recent phenomenon.

When did we hire Buck?

[Can_of_corn]

When did we hire Buck?

2010. Folks tend to forget that 2011 (69-93) was under Buck.

[scOtt]

When did we hire Buck?

In DD We Trust. But Buck is the turning point. Even his first two months, end of the season, we played at a HIGH level. More than the sum of his parts.

[Can_of_corn]

In DD We Trust. But Buck is the turning point. Even his first two months, end of the season, we played at a HIGH level. More than the sum of his parts.

Like I said, folks tend to forget about 2011.

[Number5]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/10-years-of-team-performance-10-years-of-team-projections/

O's are at -1 over 10 years. It looks like them completely missing the mark with the O's is a recent phenomenon.

No, it really isn't. Prior to the Orioles developing a good defense, Fangraphs completely missed the mark on the Orioles in the opposite direction from the direction they have recently been completely missing the mark on. But they have consistently been completely missing the mark.

By completely ignoring team defense in their team ERA projections, they have consistently been about as bad as they can be with their team win projections. To say that it "averages out" across the league, so they are doing well with their projections is just silly. Of course it averages out across the league. If they project all teams to average 81 wins, it would be impossible - literally impossible - not to have all teams average the number they projected. They are, however, about as wrong as they can be on about two thirds of the league teams every season. I mean, lets face it, they can only be off by so much for any team - they are going to be projecting all teams to be less than 20 wins away from 81, one way or the other. As I see it, their team wins projection record is about as poor as it can be. Just a plain old educated guess by an informed individual is likely to be closer than Fangraphs year in and year out, provided the individual takes care to make sure that the average of all of the team win projections each year is 81. Without even sitting down and crunching numbers, an informed individual will consider offense, defense and pitching. Fangraphs intentionally ignores defense altogether, so they can't help but to end up with their consistently poor projections.

Heck, on the 5 year chart, they have come within 10 wins on only 12 teams. And that is in spite of the probability that they missed on some teams in opposite directions in different seasons, bringing the five year total closer to center. That is consistently poor and is well beyond random deviation. Teams are far more likely to play defensively similar rosters over a five-year period than a ten-year span, so the effect of two terrible projections in opposite directions "averaging out" these very poor projections for a certain team is less likely to show up over five years. To me, this makes the five-year chart actually more meaningful than the ten year chart. In any case, in each individual year they have been pretty far off on a number of teams.

At first blush, common sense tells us that to completely ignore the impact of team defense on team ERA will yield faulty team ERA projections. This is a case where first impression is the correct impression. Sometimes the obvious is, in fact, the proper way to look at it.

[Frobby]

2010. Folks tend to forget that 2011 (69-93) was under Buck.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/143842-So-what-exactly-happened-in-2011?highlight=2011 Lots of problems with the pitching and defense that year. The switch from Kranitz to Connor/Adair was not smooth. But, the team's performance at the end of the season portended what happened in 2012.

[Can_of_corn]

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/143842-So-what-exactly-happened-in-2011?highlight=2011 Lots of problems with the pitching and defense that year. The switch from Kranitz to Connor/Adair was not smooth. But, the team's performance at the end of the season portended what happened in 2012.

I agree but folks do tend to conveniently forget Buck had a 90 loss season with this team. scOtt was basically saying that once Buck took over it was all buttercups and rainbows. 2011 was a rather huge bummer of a season.

[Frobby]

I agree but folks do tend to conveniently forget Buck had a 90 loss season with this team. scOtt was basically saying that once Buck took over it was all buttercups and rainbows. 2011 was a rather huge bummer of a season.

Overall it was disappointing, but I remember being impressed that the team didn't quit on Buck in August/September even though they were out of the race. And of course, knocking Boston out of the race was enjoyable. Though I'm glad we're no longer getting our pleasure by ruining some other team's season. Making the playoffs beats keeping some other team from making the playoffs.