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vs. Yankees - Flag Day


scOtt

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    • As to Urias, I think he’s on much thinner ice.  I’d say he has another 30 days to get his bat in gear.  If he doesn’t, I think either Holliday or Mayo will take his spot.  
    • I don’t see a path for Mayo to get the ABs needed to acclimate & become a force in the lineup this year.  Someone would need to be moved.  I don’t see them bringing him up to get sporadic ABs and if they do bring him up and give him sporadic ABs I don’t see him being a difference maker.  He’s a special talent but every single one of our top tier guys have needed time to adjust.  How does he get that opportunity? 
    • Offensively, l think McCann is what he is.  If you look at his 2023 game log, you’ll see that he was sub-.600 OPS most of last year, except that he had a 10-game stretch in August where he got very hot and raised his OPS from .564 to .692, and then he had a .525 OPS for the rest of the season once that streak was over.  So, I’m not expecting much more from McCann with the bat than what we’re currently seeing.  Every so often that stiff, grooved swing of his connects with a baseball and he hits the ball hard somewhere.   Most of the time, it doesn’t.   Defensively, there are some indicators that his performance is down, particularly in pitch blocking.  But it’s a small enough sample that I don’t know if it’s really meaningful.   The team is 11-6 when McCann starts and the pitchers have a 3.78 ERA when he’s behind the dish (2.90 when it’s Adley).   I think that’s good enough that the team isn’t going to be in any big hurry to “upgrade” from McCann.   He’s been a good mentor for Adley and seems well liked and respected in the clubhouse.   So long as they’re winning when he catches, they’re going to stick with him IMO.  
    • Eh. If you want to throw out Mateo's April, can we throw out Mateo's May too? Neither is reflective of the quality of hitter he is.  2023 Mateo April: 1.062 OPS (not reflective) 2023 Mateo May: .316 OPS (not reflective) 2023 Mateo April and May combined: .659 OPS (very reflective) vs. Mateo Career: .639 OPS Mateo 2023 vs. LHP: 108 wRC+ (keeping April and May) Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from May 1st on: 78 wRC+ (removing April) Mateo 2023 vs. LHP from June 1st on: 109 wRC+ (removing April and May) Mateo vs. LHP from May 1st 2023 until present: 108 wRC+  So I think throwing out April while keeping May isn't giving him enough credit. Even throwing out April of 2023, he's been good against LHP since May 1st if you just extend the time range. He just can't be playing against RHP. That's where Holliday comes in.  
    • Norby projects to be about league average offensively. His AAA numbers look very good, but adjusting for the high level of offense at the AAA level means he’s not that far above AAA league average. It all depends on his defense, which is very hard to project. If he was bringing plus defense somewhere he could be an everyday player. Ultimately I think he’d fit as a very good bench piece for the Orioles, as a righty bat with defensive flexibility for LF/2B. They have a lot of lefty starters, particularly in the OF. But Norby hasn’t been required to be added to the 40 man roster yet (he will this offseason) and there’s so much depth right now he hasn’t been needed.  There’s a very good chance he’ll provide more value to the Orioles as a trade chip to a team that will be able to give him a shot to be an everyday player, but if not I think he’ll get his chance to be a bench player for the Orioles in 2025+ (or this season, if we’re unlucky with injuries). Urias and Hays are both at risk for being non-tendered this offseason if they don’t bounce back in the remainder of this season, and Urias may not make it through this year. Mateo also has only one more year of control remaining and next year Holliday should be able to be the backup SS, although Mateo’s playing well enough right now to not be nontendered. But Holliday, Mayo and Kjerstad are all ahead of Norby and only Santander is a free agent this offseason (O’Hearn has an option next year, which is now looking like a bargain), so it’s not clear where the roster space for Norby will come from when everyone is healthy. 
    • Norby can’t be worse than Kjerstad or O’Hearn in the OF. 2025 OF LF - A Stowers/Norby platoon RF - Kjerstad CF - Mullins
    • The lower velo did trip the filter of a Rotographs person who follows velo game to game.    It's notable to me his "extra velo" story this spring came from a mechancial tweak the Orioles gave him when we live in a world where usually the theme of that one is Driveline, Tread, John Means' neighborhood place, etc. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/three-appearance-fastball-velocity-risers-and-fallers-may-16th-2024/ Same piece also highlights Berrios with very hot stuff by his own personal standard Monday.
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