Orioles trade Davies for Parra. Your verdict?

[Scrat1]

Just wondering if I have this right - We're supposed to believe that his dramatic improvement in offense is for real, and we're supposed to believe that his dramatic decline in defense is a fluke? I'd be okay with this trade if I thought we had excellent organizational pitching depth, but we don't - not even close.

Right. And we know he's running an unsustainably high BABIP. His OPS is inflated and also out of line with career numbers. There's no reason at all to believe he'll hit .850+ the rest of the season. Expect numbers close to his career AKA not that much better than Snider.

[Babypowder]

Sigh. You don't think a big market team would go over market value to pull him away from the O's in the offseason? I certainly do, which would mean signing him to a market rates wouldn't be done just as easily in the offseason.

I do think that, which is why I think this is an unnecessary debate anyway, because the O's would have to go to that unreasonable level to get a guy 2 months away from his big pay day during a career year to extend anyway.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Please point out where I said he'd sign below market value.

Are you serious? Read what you are writing. Read your post under this one. You're saying that, when he hits the open market, another team will outbid the O's, meaning that is his actual market price. Which means, if he agrees to forgo the open market and sign during the window, he is throwing away millions of dollars, because now the " big market team" can't "go over market value to pull him away." The poster was asking you why he would be willing to do that, and you said because he likes Baltimore.

[Scrat1]

Player A

Career wOBA: .320; ROS projected (ZIPS): .334

Player B

Career wOBA: .323; ROS projected (ZIPS): .322

Player A: Gerardo Parra

Player B: Alejandro de Aza

Remember how excited we were when we got Joe Gunkel for da Aza? Just traded one of our top pitching prospects for a guy marginally better. Duquette is playing a very expensive game of musical chairs.

[gmelson26]

Career numbers aren't what we traded for. We traded for this year numbers. This year numbers are the numbers that are happening this year, in the current season. Like right now, as in what he's been able to do this current season.

Let's hope he's 2015 version of 2014 Pearce.

[Oriolesallday]

Instagram quote from a Brewers fan

"Doug Melvin is so stupid!! Why would you trade parra for another pitcher. Parra's one of the best players on the team."

[DrungoHazewood]

Just wondering if I have this right - We're supposed to believe that his dramatic improvement in offense is for real, and we're supposed to believe that his dramatic decline in defense is a fluke? I'd be okay with this trade if I thought we had excellent organizational pitching depth, but we don't - not even close.

I think all you're being asked to believe is that this is an upgrade over Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold for a middling pitching prospect.

[Scrat1]

Career numbers aren't what we traded for. We traded for this year numbers. This year numbers are the numbers that are happening this year, in the current season. Like right now, as in what he's been able to do this current season.

Note the projected rest-of-season projection. They tend to put more weight on a player's body of work than four months of unusually high numbers inflated by BABIP. If you expect Parra to keep hitting at .886, prepare to be disappointed. See: de Aza, just in reverse. Rarely are players dominant for an entire season, particularly ones who have no track record of doing so.

[DrungoHazewood]

Career numbers aren't what we traded for. We traded for this year numbers. This year numbers are the numbers that are happening this year, in the current season. Like right now, as in what he's been able to do this current season.

If a guy has an established level of hitting .275 but he's hot and has hit .325 for the last two months his best projection going forward is a lot closer to .275 than .325.

[MurphDogg]

Career numbers aren't what we traded for. We traded for this year numbers. This year numbers are the numbers that are happening this year, in the current season. Like right now, as in what he's been able to do this current season.

We are trading for what he will do over the next two months. Both sets of numbers are relevant. I think few people would object if Parra was guaranteed to continue with a .372 BABIP, but the fact that he has done so to this point doesn't mean it will continue.

[Scrat1]

I think all you're being asked to believe is that this is an upgrade over Travis Snider and Nolan Reimold for a middling pitching prospect.

Well yeah, but in terms of marginal gain (~1 Win), vs. marginal loss (who knows? Maybe Mike Leake, maybe Miguel Gonzalez, maybe nothing), it's a terrible trade. The whole point of hording those guys is that some are going to hit and some are not. You know this.

[Scrat1]

So then we should expect Snider to jump about 40 points in the OPS department in the final 2 months. Or Paredes to tank about 100 points.

The guy's on fire this year and the year is almost over. He's going to remain relatively on fire for the rest of the year because he's having a good year. He's better than Snider.

You can't say this with any degree of confidence. Players are hot and cold throughout the season all the time.

[Redskins Rick]

You can't say this with any degree of confidence. Players are hot and cold throughout the season all the time.

Sure we can, this is the OH, we do that all the time in here.

[Can_of_corn]

Note the projected rest-of-season projection. They tend to put more weight on a player's body of work than four months of unusually high numbers inflated by BABIP. If you expect Parra to keep hitting at .886, prepare to be disappointed. See: de Aza, just in reverse. Rarely are players dominant for an entire season, particularly ones who have no track record of doing so.

If a guy has an established level of hitting .275 but he's hot and has hit .325 for the last two months his best projection going forward is a lot closer to .275 than .325.

We are trading for what he will do over the next two months. Both sets of numbers are relevant. I think few people would object if Parra was guaranteed to continue with a .372 BABIP, but the fact that he has done so to this point doesn't mean it will continue.

I explained all of that 10 pages ago, he isn't willing to listen.

[gmelson26]

Instagram quote from a Brewers fan

"Doug Melvin is so stupid!! Why would you trade parra for another pitcher. Parra's one of the best players on the team."

They aren't possibly making the playoffs and he is a rental... why would they possibly care?