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Why didn't O'Day get a QO

Catch 8

By Catch 8
in Orioles Talk

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MurphDogg Hangout Grand Counsel

MurphDogg

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I'm hearing there is an expanding market for O'Day. Perhaps we should have offered that QO.

He may well get 3/$25-$30 without the qualifying offer. If he had received the qualifying offer, the interest would deflate and he would be lucky to get 3/$20M, as the only teams likely to sign him would be teams that had already signed another QO player and thus only giving up a second or third rounder instead of a first or comp round pick. I truly believe that he would have take the 1/$15.8M deal and taken his chances in free agency again next year.

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Nevermore All-Star

Nevermore

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He may well get 3/$25-$30 without the qualifying offer. If he had received the qualifying offer, the interest would deflate and he would be lucky to get 3/$20M, as the only teams likely to sign him would be teams that had already signed another QO player and thus only giving up a second or third rounder instead of a first or comp round pick. I truly believe that he would have take the 1/$15.8M deal and taken his chances in free agency again next year.
I've come to realize that I'm one of the very few who believes that signing O'Day is one of the most important things that O's management can do for the team. I also realize that this seemingly-crazed idea of mine goes against all of baseball conventional wisdom. After all, one doesn't give a QO to a mere reliever according to this conventional wisdom. Relievers seem to grow on trees (according to conventional wisdom) and therefore O's management can just pluck someone from one of these trees.

The truth (or at least the way I see it) is that quality middle-late relievers are growing more important than before. This is because of pitch-counting and starters not going so far in each game. Especially with a rotation (such as the O's) not consisting of ace pitchers. Unless O's management is able to sign Dave Price and Johnny Cueto (or two similarly gifted pitchers), quality relievers will be needed to keep the O's in games. And they most definitely don't grow on trees. We need relievers such as Darren O'Day to come in when a starter doesn't go more than 5-6 innings. If O's management gives O'Day a QO and he accepts it, then the team is only committed to keeping him for 1 year. O'Day is likely to reject a QO so negotiating a multi-year contract for a mere retriever -- a quality reliever like O'Day is important. Just my take. And I doubt that it will happen. But I just wanted to get this idea out.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Sounds like a little research project for someone: Take the top 50 or 100 relievers by whatever metric you like and figure out how their current team acquired them and how much he makes.

It looks like Darren did not make the top 40 list or the honorable mentions this past off season. Must be anti Baltimore bias.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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You can't give a guy a QO that is about double what his annual salary will be on a longer term deal. There isn't a single reliever in baseball who will be making $15.8 mm next year. Not one.

Let's say the market for O'Day this year is 3/$25 mm or 4/$32 mm. He accepts the QO, and all he has to do is get 2/$10 mm or 3/$17 mm next winter to come out ahead. So the chances are about 80% that he'd accept the QO and the O's would lose money on the deal. They'd be better off just offering him a long-term deal that's good enough to retain him.

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