Arrieta Posts

[Can_of_corn]

To me, we can keep bringing it up, but nothing changes. Jake was a bit of a head case and the team didn't develop him properly. He's thrown 2 no-hitters and won a Cy Young. I think we all knew he could be better but I can't remember anyone predicting this good. Davis was just a bad trade. They wanted a power hitting first baseman and what they gave up was pretty standard, 3 decent prospects (Can't remember them being high end prospects. I was a pre-teen at the time). They both turned out bad. Move on.

I see your point. The only problem I ever had with the Jake trade is that I wanted more back then Feldman.

I was just looking at it from a numbers standpoint.

[Rene88]

Finley was worth 17.6 rWAR in the five seasons after the trade.

Harnish was worth 8.1 rWAR in the four seasons after the trade.

Shilling was worth 11.8 rWAR in the five seasons after the trade.

So the O's traded 37.5 rWAR in assets so they could pay Davis over 10 million for three years of service and .7 rWAR worth of production.

So the O's came out almost 37 rWAR in the red on the deal.

If Jake keeps putting up 9 win seasons it will be close.

(not sure on years of team control, just took a quick look)

Thanks for posting this, not a WAR expert but my gut told me Jake's dominance made things closer.

Sad. Very sad.

You were right on Gallardo it seems. I wanted both Fister and Latos, but whatever.

[Tx Oriole]

Terrible, terrible trade in hindsight. It wasn't a 3 for 1 but let's stop sugar is ting this one: the Orioles brass screwed up at an epic and historic level.

This is why you can easily doubt an organization that has the least amount of scouts in all of MLB.

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I don't know buddy. It doesn't bother me because it happened in the past and

can't be changed.

[oriole]

Maybe because of people that were hired by our brass and gave poor instruction? Not everything is just bad luck.

I'm just over the blame game and feeling sorry for ourselves about it. Yeah it sucks but don't you think Texas was kicking themselves after Davis hit 50 some home runs or how about the Twins when they traded Ortiz or Seattle when they realized that Montero was a terrible baseball player...things like Arrieta happen in baseball, no one to blame necessarily and make a million posts about.

[atomic]

Finley was worth 17.6 rWAR in the five seasons after the trade.

Harnish was worth 8.1 rWAR in the four seasons after the trade.

Shilling was worth 11.8 rWAR in the five seasons after the trade.

So the O's traded 37.5 rWAR in assets so they could pay Davis over 10 million for three years of service and .7 rWAR worth of production.

So the O's came out almost 37 rWAR in the red on the deal.

If Jake keeps putting up 9 win seasons it will be close.

(not sure on years of team control, just took a quick look)

So far Orioles have gotten 2.3 WAR.

.7 Feldman

.4 Cleavenger

1.2 Trumbo

Hopefully Trumbo keeps producing but already beats what we got from Glenn.

[Can_of_corn]

I'm just over the blame game and feeling sorry for ourselves about it. Yeah it sucks but don't you think Texas was kicking themselves after Davis hit 50 some home runs or how about the Twins when they traded Ortiz or Seattle when they realized that Montero was a terrible baseball player...things like Arrieta happen in baseball, no one to blame necessarily and make a million posts about.

The Rangers left Koji off their playoff roster.

[Can_of_corn]

So far Orioles have gotten 2.3 WAR.

.7 Feldman

.4 Cleavenger

1.2 Trumbo

Hopefully Trumbo keeps producing but already beats what we got from Glenn.

If you count Trumbo you would have to look at everyone the Astros got for Finley, Schilling and Harnish. I think it is a lot easier to just look at the players actually traded.

[24fps]

Terrible, terrible trade in hindsight. It wasn't a 3 for 1 but let's stop sugar is ting this one: the Orioles brass screwed up at an epic and historic level.

This is why you can easily doubt an organization that has the least amount of scouts in all of MLB.

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It's especially frustrating when you factor in the fact that every one of the other teams always win their trades. Always. They always gamble and win. Unlike the Orioles. I don't understand the success over the last four years given the gross incompetence in the Orioles' front office. Do you think there's cheating going on?

[tntoriole]

If you count Trumbo you would have to look at everyone the Astros got for Finley, Schilling and Harnish. I think it is a lot easier to just look at the players actually traded.

Well, the Astros traded Schilling for Jason Grimsley in what perhaps was their worst trade since they sent us Mike Cuellar for Curt Blefary or sending us Lee May for Enos Cabell. And then they sent Steve Finley along with Ken Caminiti to San Diego where he then became the NL MVP for Ricky Gutierrez and Derek Bell...another terrible deal.

[tntoriole]

Terrible, terrible trade in hindsight. It wasn't a 3 for 1 but let's stop sugar is ting this one: the Orioles brass screwed up at an epic and historic level.

This is why you can easily doubt an organization that has the least amount of scouts in all of MLB.

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It could have been worse. It could have been John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander...lol. Or Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio. Or my alltime favorite bad trade deadline deal when the Expos sent Randy Johnson to the Mariners in exchange for half a season of Mark Langston, although the Red Sox sending Jeff Bagwell to the Astros for a few months of Larry Andersen, middle reliever was a close second. These things happen in baseball and they happen to every team eventually...but they do even out. I mean we did get Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas and Ken Singleton and Mike Torrez for a hurt Dave McNally and Richie Coggins.

[Old#5fan]

I don't really recall anyone here including yours truly lamenting over shipping Arrieta off to the Cubs at the time. I personally was more bothered by losing Strop whom I thought had a solid future ahead of him, whereas Arrieta was frustrating to watc and seemed beyond question to be getting worse the more he pitched as he consistently would fall apart as soon as he had to pitch with runners on out of the stretch. I do recall posting here to much ridicule that Rick Dempsey said that Arrieta had the stuff of an ace and was more likely to become one than any of the young starters although he also liked Tillman as well.

[Rene88]

I don't think our jobs as posters is to determine these things though in all fairness:) What I would hope is we invest more in scouting both here and internationally. While that has improved, the Arietta trade and Gallardo signings seem to tell us that we are far from where we need to be.

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[OsEatAlEast]

I watched Arrieta the other day. His curveball has much more tilt on it than it did with the O's. Like the one Kerry Wood used to have.

[TINSTAAPP]

Of course not. The Glenn Davis trade was equivalent to giving up a young Wieters (Finley) and Tillman (Harnisch) along with Arrieta (Schilling) in the same trade. Nothing will top that trade in terms of pure awfulness.

[BohKnowsBmore]

In 2012 he had a 4.05FIP and 3.65xFIP in 119 1/3 IP. An 8.56K/9 and 2.75BB/9 are both good, but he was just absolute trash with men on base as shown by his 57.3LOB% which is almost 20% below where most pitchers are. Based on those numbers it looks to me like he had issues pitching out of the stretch. Fix those and you'd have fixed him.

It got progressively worse every single year after the one you cite.