Report: Orioles interested in Padres Andrew Cashner

[Frobby]

You think the DH and the difference in HR would lead to an almost half run bump in FIP?

Over the last three seasons

OPCAY:

1.275/.936/1.415

PETCO:

.936/.808/1.085

I think you are overestimating.

What do the three slash lines represent?

To my understanding, based on 2015 a pitcher with an ERA+ of 100 would have about a 3.64 ERA in San Diego (including both home and road schedule), and about a 4.16 in Baltimore. So, the difference between the two environments is about .52 runs/game. Therefore, I was being generous in only increasing Cashner's 3.85 FIP by .45 runs.

For example, Cashner had an ERA+ of 84 last year, and so did Miguel Gonzalez. Cashner's raw ERA was 4.34, Gonzo's was 4.91.

[Tony-OH]

This is another one-year rental like Feldman, Miller, Parra, albeit this would be for a full season unlike the aforementioned three. Does that change the calculus on what the trade should cost?

Tony, you are understating the reason people would not be excited about your trade proposal. It is the fact that Cashner represents a one-year rental, more-so than some predisposition to overate and never trade a prospect. Speaking for myself, I have no problem trading Mancini for a SP that can help the club. Just not a one-year rental coming off a weak season.

Just to clarify, you think Davies is better than all these guys right?

Absolutely. I've always been more bullish on Davies, but only Lee has a chance to be better if he reaches his ceiling.

[Can_of_corn]

What do the three slash lines represent?

To my understanding, based on 2015 a pitcher with an ERA+ of 100 would have about a 3.64 ERA in San Diego (including both home and road schedule), and about a 4.16 in Baltimore. So, the difference between the two environments is about .52 runs/game. Therefore, I was being generous in only increasing Cashner's 3.85 FIP by .45 runs.

For example, Cashner had an ERA+ of 84 last year, and so did Miguel Gonzalez. Cashner's raw ERA was 4.34, Gonzo's was 4.91.

The park effect for home runs for 2013/2014/2015.

Pretty remarkable the O's hit that many HR in 2014.

I would expect ERA to be more influenced than FIP.

[Tony-OH]

It feels to me like your now devaluing Mancini in a similar fashion to the way that those who supported the Davies trade tried to devalue him.

Perhaps your right, perhaps Mancini is not the player some want him to be, that said I think letting a guy go who is getting some interest from other teams as a prospect for a ho hum starter with one year of control is a mistake. Just as sending Davies for ho hum OF with one year of control was also.

I'm just telling you what I've heard from scouts from other teams. Not everyone is convinced Mancini is a sure fire every day big league first baseman. With differing opinions, his value is not as high as you may think.

Davies is a much better prospect than Mancini in my eyes and the reason I didn't want to trade Davies was because Parra didn't move the needle on a .500 team. This is still the offseason so the situation is different. I wouldn't trade Mancini for a two month rental on a .500 team either.

[Tony-OH]

I think Mancini has more upside than Walker, but he will have to prove it this year by outperforming Walker at Norfolk. I like Wilson slightly better than Wright as a starting pitcher, but I think Wright could be a serviceable 5th starter/decent bullpen piece. I gather you thing Lee has more upside than Wilson as a starter, but he is further away from being ready to help and I want to see how he does as he progresses up the ladder. I don't think either is untouchable, but I really hate the idea of getting only one year in return.

I think we have a lot of Mike Wrights when it comes to 5th starter/reliever types. Wright may have the best fastball of them all, and I think there is some upside to him from a relief standpoint, but i think he's a commodity we have a lot of in the system. Worley and Wilson are probably ahead of him in the 5th starter's job and Triggs and Lee are right there behind him.

I like Mancini more than Walker myself and think he will be a better major leaguer, but he's limited to first base, right-handed hitter who only has one good minor league season under his belt. If I can get a major league starter who can help me win this year I'm going to do that. I personally think the Orioles can compete this season so if I can get a solid starter for Wright and Mancini I would make the trade.

[Tony-OH]

Isn't it also about what value you believe Cashner will be? To me, this is the real difference of opinion here.

Cashner, despite his hype and pedigree, has never really panned out to be what he was projected to be. His career pales in comparison to Matt Wieters, for example. Wieters is four months older than Cashner, yet has accumulated 14.6 WAR to Cashner's 3.6 over their careers. Wieters has played one more season in the majors than Cashner.

I know you were very much against offering Wieters the QO. I didn't agree with you, but I understood your reasons. I am confused, however, by your position on Cashner. If the perceived likelihood of getting a pick by offering him a QO next off-season enters into your thinking, I don't see how that jibes with your position on Wieters. After all, the QO represents paying a salary worth about 2 WAR. Wieters has shown that he can be worth that, and has had a couple of seasons where he would have returned a strong excess value on that investment. Cashner has been worth 2 WAR twice (2.4 in 2013 and 1.9 in 2014), and has never delivered substantial excess value on a salary worth 2 WAR. Last season, Cashner came in at -0.9 WAR, and Wieters 1.7 WAR better than that at 0.8. Bad year for both, no question, but worse for Cashner. I'm really just not getting the Cashner love here. Do we really want to trade prospects that may well be able to net us something better on the gamble that Cashner will provide us a career year?

I understand your points on Mancini and Wright. Where we differ is how we peceive Cashner's value, not the Orioles' prospects. I am not unilaterally opposed to trading Mancini. I just simply don't see Cashner as being the right target.

I can totally buy that opinion. You definitely need to believe in the return. I believe Cashner has some upside, much more upside than Worley/Wright/Wilson. Saying that, I can understand if you have a differing opinion of Cashner. I don't think he's a slam dunk, but I do think his groundball rates, K/9 and the fact he's going into his walk year all favor him being able to help the Orioles in 2016.

[Frobby]

I would expect ERA to be more influenced than FIP.

It occurred to me that one might be more influenced by ballpark than the other, but it isn't clear to me if that is so, or which one would be more affected.

[DrungoHazewood]

The park effect for home runs for 2013/2014/2015.

Pretty remarkable the O's hit that many HR in 2014.

I would expect ERA to be more influenced than FIP.

It's only remarkable if you think a one-year component park factor is meaningful. It's completely because the pitchers allowed 68 homers at home and 83 on the road. The hitters hit three more at home than on the road. Almost certainly just one of those random things.

[Can_of_corn]

It's only remarkable if you think a one-year component park factor is meaningful. It's completely because the pitchers allowed 68 homers at home and 83 on the road. The hitters hit three more at home than on the road. Almost certainly just one of those random things.

What I meant was the total HR count was high for a team playing 81 games in a ballpark that wasn't homer friendly.

Wasn't searching for greater meaning.

[Frobby]

I can totally buy that opinion. You definitely need to believe in the return. I believe Cashner has some upside, much more upside than Worley/Wright/Wilson. Saying that, I can understand if you have a differing opinion of Cashner. I don't think he's a slam dunk, but I do think his groundball rates, K/9 and the fact he's going into his walk year all favor him being able to help the Orioles in 2016.

I don't think there's much evidence that players, on average, do better in their walk year. It sure didn't help Bud Norris or Jason Hammel. The rest of it is reasonable.

[Tony-OH]

I don't think there's much evidence that players, on average, do better in their walk year. It sure didn't help Bud Norris or Jason Hammel. The rest of it is reasonable.

You may be right, but I would still put that into my consideration. I'm not going to only target these guys, but anyone looking for a pay day has the extra motivation to be ready to go. It certainly doesn't mean it will always work out, but it's another point for me.

[DrungoHazewood]

What I meant was the total HR count was high for a team playing 81 games in a ballpark that wasn't homer friendly.

Wasn't searching for greater meaning.

It was and is homer friendly. Just happened that the Orioles pitchers managed to somehow not allow a lot of homers there.

[Frobby]

I think we have a lot of Mike Wrights when it comes to 5th starter/reliever types. Wright may have the best fastball of them all, and I think there is some upside to him from a relief standpoint, but i think he's a commodity we have a lot of in the system. Worley and Wilson are probably ahead of him in the 5th starter's job and Triggs and Lee are right there behind him.

I think Worley is ahead of Wright, and Wilson may be slightly ahead too but that's less clear. I don't think you meant to include Trigg as a 5th starter option, right? He's purely a reliever.

Lee is certainly interesting to me, but he has only thrown 7 games in AA, so realistically he's not a guy we'd call in to fill a rotation spot in 2016. Mid-2017 is more like it, and we will see how he develops in the interim. His K/9 and K/BB rates certainly didn't blow me away, either at Frederick (5.7 K/9, 1.66 K/BB) or Bowie (6.2 K/9, 1.30 K/BB).

[Can_of_corn]

It was and is homer friendly. Just happened that the Orioles pitchers managed to somehow not allow a lot of homers there.

Going by memory, the ballpark was death to HR the first half of the season. The ball didn't carry until around the all star break.

[Tony-OH]

I think Worley is ahead of Wright, and Wilson may be slightly ahead too but that's less clear. I don't think you meant to include Trigg as a 5th starter option, right? He's purely a reliever.

Lee is certainly interesting to me, but he has only thrown 7 games in AA, so realistically he's not a guy we'd call in to fill a rotation spot in 2016. Mid-2017 is more like it, and we will see how he develops in the interim. His K/9 and K/BB rates certainly didn't blow me away, either at Frederick (5.7 K/9, 1.66 K/BB) or Bowie (6.2 K/9, 1.30 K/BB).

I'm totally slipping! lol

I meant Joe Gunkel, not Triggs who is definitely a reliever.