Do you consider Matt Wieters to be a bust?

[Enjoy Terror]

I'm curious to know what people would say if, hypothetically, you could draft a guaranteed career-5bWAR player or roll the dice on someone else at 5th in the draft? If you wouldn't, does that answer change if it's guaranteed 10-bWAR?

[Frobby]

Wieters, Matusz and Bundy also all had very sucessful first years in the minors.

Matusz didn't even last a year in the minors. He pitched 113 innings at Frederick and Bowie and was called up. He pitched quite respectably in his two-month major league stint that year, and also quite respectably the following year, particularly towards the end of the year when he finished with a 1.57 ERA over his last 8 starts. What happened between then and his awful 2011 season, we'll never fully know. But in any event, whatever happened, happened at the major league level, not as a result of minor league development.

[OrioleMagic79]

Like WAR or don't like it. You're aren't providing any kind of stats or evidence to back up your argument.

When my opinion is asked for, I don't believe that I need to back it up with stats because, well, it's my opinion ...

And WAR isn't a stat ... it's asinine ...

[DrungoHazewood]

When my opinion is asked for, I don't believe that I need to back it up with stats because, well, it's my opinion ...

And WAR isn't a stat ... it's asinine ...

Just because you keep repeating something doesn't make it true. WAR is probably just a better-constructed, much more consistent version of how you rate players in your head.

[Frobby]

I'm curious to know what people would say if, hypothetically, you could draft a guaranteed career-5bWAR player or roll the dice on someone else at 5th in the draft? If you wouldn't, does that answer change if it's guaranteed 10-bWAR?

At 5 bWAR, no. At 10 bWAR, it is a close call. Only 10 of 51 no. 5 overall picks have exceeded 10 bWAR, but 8 of those were at 28-53 bWAR. The average no. 5 pick has been worth 7-8 bWAR, but the median is only at replacement level or a little below. So, it's a bird in the hand vs. two in the bush kind of thing.

[OrioleMagic79]

Just because you keep repeating something doesn't make it true. WAR is probably just a better-constructed, much more consistent version of how you rate players in your head.

Haha, OK.

[weams]

I'm curious to know what people would say if, hypothetically, you could draft a guaranteed career-5bWAR player or roll the dice on someone else at 5th in the draft? If you wouldn't, does that answer change if it's guaranteed 10-bWAR?

100 percent of the time in your hypothetical, you would need to select the 10 bWAR player. Anything else is just casino or stock market gambling. My opinion. The 5, you would need to roll the die on.

[adam_jonzin']

Wieters has been a bust in the sense that he didn't become another Joe Mauer. He's been a good and productive catcher.

Matusz is the clear bust.

Pretty sure Joe Mauer is as much if not more of a bust than Matt at this point.

But no, Matt is not a bust. Just hasn't lived up to the hype.

[weams]

Pretty sure Joe Mauer is as much if not more of a bust than Matt at this point.

But no' date=' Matt is not a bust. Just hasn't lived up to the hype.[/quote']

Joe Mauer is a bust because of his contract. Both he and Matt are no loner under draft control so the issue ended. They both were great draft choices.

[MDtransplant757]

Pretty sure Joe Mauer is as much if not more of a bust than Matt at this point.

But no' date=' Matt is not a bust. Just hasn't lived up to the hype.[/quote']

Joe Mauer is just old and his knees are shot. He'll retire a Twin. Matt has just never lived up to the hype, and I think overtime he just became redundant in the lineup. However, I'd rather have Weiters in the lineup the Joseph.

[Frobby]

Pretty sure Joe Mauer is as much if not more of a bust than Matt at this point.

Mauer 48.5 rWAR, Wieters 14.4 rWAR, so, uh, no. Of all the players ever drafted at 1:1, Mauer ranks 4th in career rWAR. Wieters ranks 10th among players drafted at 1:5.

Now, Mauer's current contract? That's a bust, big time. But he's certainly been no bust as a player.

[DrungoHazewood]

Pretty sure Joe Mauer is as much if not more of a bust than Matt at this point.

What? Mauer's career has been about three times as valuable as Wieters'. He's within shouting distance of the top 10 catchers of all time in career value, and has several 5+ win seasons including a .365 season with a 1.000 OPS. He's already passed six or eight HOF catchers on the career value list. Wieters has been a fine player, a good value, an above average #5 pick, but hasn't cracked the top 100 catchers of all time.

[jtschrei]

Matt Weiters is a solid player who has provided good value to the organization. When you think about his age 22 season when his OPS was over 1,000 in 130 games at A and AA, you have to say he's disappointed. When he had that season, I thought we had a super duper star like Manny has turned out to be. We didn't and we don't.

Instead, we have a very solid catcher who has provided good value to the organization.

[weams]

Mauer 48.5 rWAR, Wieters 14.4 rWAR, so, uh, no. Of all the players ever drafted at 1:1, Mauer ranks 4th in career rWAR. Wieters ranks 10th among players drafted at 1:5.

Now, Mauer's current contract? That's a bust, big time. But he's certainly been no bust as a player.

Thats the problem here. People are forgetting that this conversation only applies to the control years. Not Extensions, Qualifying offers, or Free agent signings.

[MurphDogg]

When my opinion is asked for, I don't believe that I need to back it up with stats because, well, it's my opinion ...

This isn't how debate works. This isn't how anything works. An opinion without support is just empty words.