For heaven's sake say NO! to a pitcher with pick #4!!!

[66-70-83-??]

Ok, first off, don't make this a personal attack on me because you think I am "tearing down Matusz" in some personal attack. Heaven forbid I don't agree with who you would like to take, and getting an attitude about it is not about to make me change my mind. Assuming I have a man-crush or whatever you call it on anyone is a) offensive, and b) idiotic, and i really just lost all respect for this disagreement with you.

To humor you, I submit one easily found website which shares my opinion with reasoning and pictures in case you need them.

http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/college-draft-brian-matusz.html

Not to mention a quote from Keith Law in a recent chat:

Brett (WI): Keith, if Matusz is "the surest of sure things" in this draft (someone else's words), then why isn't he getting more interest from the Rays at #1? The absence of a clear cut #1 is what is leading them to Posey, so I thought Matusz would be of interest from them as well. Is their need of a catcher greater than another talented arm in that organization?

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:19 PM ET ) Because he's not the surest of sure things. He doesn't pitch with his fastball, and his delivery isn't pretty. I'm not sure where the quote's from, but I don't see him that way, and I don't think I've talked to any scout who does either.

I don't have a "man-crush" on anyone, I believe in taking the best available player, and when players are evenly ranked then I believe in taking the more valuable position. I believe that there are enough other players that are better than Matusz on an overall talent level that I don't believe he should be taken 4th overall. If you have a different opinion, fine, you are entitled, but get all huffy at me and accuse me of having a man crush because I don't agree with your opinion. Maybe you should spend some time reading back through the past month or two of the draft forum and see where these conversations on certain players has come from before you start attacking me for not agreeing with you.

Don't be so hyper-sensitive.

I don't expect you or anyone to agree with my opinion. But, I am reading your posts (word for word) and countering your points with my own. Instead of acknowledging any of my points- you say I am turning it personal.

Either *man up* and take it as well as you dish it out, or don't post controversial stuff. Either back up your opinions or word them differently.

Don't tell a poster to "Do some research" and that all the websites "all of them have him projected as a #2 at best, with questions about his delivery mechanics", and then turn around and not acknowledge the research that contradicts you.

I did the research and posted from several different sources. They don't *ALL* agree with you. I have posted stuff from Minor League Baseball, Baseball America, College Baseball Blog.

And what about BA, who has him ranked as the #2 prospect in the draft. Or Milb who I linked a scouting report from and who lists him as a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Don't any of these opinions count too?

Keith Law? He has also wrote this about Matusz

He's not a pure power pitcher like last year's Andrew Miller or this year's David Price, but he might be the more complete package. With a 92-94 mph fastball, big-breaking curve, and a highly deceptive change, Matusz has three plus pitches that he throws for strikes, and he's lining himself up for a single-digit selection next June.

Sickels, fwiw, even has Matusz rated higher than Alvarez.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/17/519689/john-s-2008-draft-board-as

Sickels on Matusz

Big guy, throws hard for a lefty, great command, nothing not to like here.

I have no idea who the Orioles will take. I have no idea how Matusz career will turn out.

But, there is not a consensus that he is a #2 or 3, *at best* and that *all* the websites/experts agree.

[birdtown]

When a low 90's fast ball from the left side is a pitcher's 3rd or 4th best pitch, I think it's safe to say that he has the stuff to be a successful major league pitcher.

All reports state that his curve and chane-up are plus plus pitches. Would everyone consider him "ace material" if you took away the effectiveness of the change or curveball from his arsenal and added 4 mph to his fastball? It may not be the greatest of comparisons, but I don't remember Tom Glavine ever throwing in the mid 90's. Instead, he had a very good curve and change to compliment an upper 80's to low 90's fastball.

I realize that this debate is just something for us to pass the time until the draft, but I really think everyone should be accepting of the selction if it turns out to be the lefty from San Diego.

[66-70-83-??]

When a low 90's fast ball from the left side is a pitcher's 3rd or 4th best pitch, I think it's safe to say that he has the stuff to be a successful major league pitcher.

All reports state that his curve and chane-up are plus plus pitches. Would everyone consider him "ace material" if you took away the effectiveness of the change or curveball from his arsenal and added 4 mph to his fastball? It may not be the greatest of comparisons, but I don't remember Tom Glavine ever throwing in the mid 90's. Instead, he had a very good curve and change to compliment an upper 80's to low 90's fastball.

I realize that this debate is just something for us to pass the time until the draft, but I really think everyone should be accepting of the selction if it turns out to be the lefty from San Diego.

Johan is mostly in the 88-91 range with an occasional 93. No one would dare he isn't an ace because he doesn't bring it 97 mph.

What is better- outstanding command or sheer velocity?

I will take the outstanding command.

[66-70-83-??]

When a low 90's fast ball from the left side is a pitcher's 3rd or 4th best pitch, I think it's safe to say that he has the stuff to be a successful major league pitcher.

All reports state that his curve and chane-up are plus plus pitches. Would everyone consider him "ace material" if you took away the effectiveness of the change or curveball from his arsenal and added 4 mph to his fastball? It may not be the greatest of comparisons, but I don't remember Tom Glavine ever throwing in the mid 90's. Instead, he had a very good curve and change to compliment an upper 80's to low 90's fastball.

I realize that this debate is just something for us to pass the time until the draft, but I really think everyone should be accepting of the selction if it turns out to be the lefty from San Diego.

Agreed. And ditto for Smoak, Beckham, Alvarez, etc...

The funny thing is this- all this back and forth over the merits of these fine players.

They are ALL good. That is why they are going to be 1st round picks.

But, the funny thing is, in the end- say 10 years from now the best player in this draft is probably some obscure 6th rounder that none of the *experts* are touting.

[Three Run Homer]

If you really want great hitters, it's very easy to find huge power potential later in the draft. Also, if they've got a real scouting eye, they could end up with a late round gem like Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings, etc.

It seems that more great hitters come from later parts of the draft then pitchers.

Maybe other team's scouts are able to find great hitters later in the draft.

But our scouts don't.

Our system has developed only two good major league hitters in the last ten years--Brian Roberts (1st rounder) and Nick Markakis (high first rounder). Matt Weiters (high first rounder) is likely to make it three. Billy Rowell (high first rounder) is our best bet to make it four, though he's still a long way from making it. Not a single hitter picked after the first round has made an impact in the majors, including high picks like Val Majewski and Jeff Fiorentino who showed promise early but then fizzled out in the high minors. Nolan Reimold could break the trend but I'm not holding my breath.

Meanwhile the club has done an admirable job getting pitching talent in later rounds. Erik Bedard was a sixth rounder IIRC, and so was John Maine. Jake Arietta was a fifth rounder.

Given that our scouting department seems to be better at finding pitchers than hitters, it makes sense to use a high first round pick on an advanced hitter who has already established that they can hit against tough competition and with wood bats--a hitter whose talent doesn't take great scouting acumen to recognize. To me, that means Smoak.

[66-70-83-??]

Maybe other team's scouts are able to find great hitters later in the draft.

But our scouts don't.

Our system has developed only two good major league hitters in the last ten years--Brian Roberts (1st rounder) and Nick Markakis (high first rounder). Matt Weiters (high first rounder) is likely to make it three. Billy Rowell (high first rounder) is our best bet to make it four, though he's still a long way from making it. Not a single hitter picked after the first round has made an impact in the majors, including high picks like Val Majewski and Jeff Fiorentino who showed promise early but then fizzled out in the high minors. Nolan Reimold could break the trend but I'm not holding my breath.

Meanwhile the club has done an admirable job getting pitching talent in later rounds. Erik Bedard was a sixth rounder IIRC, and so was John Maine. Jake Arietta was a fifth rounder.

Given that our scouting department seems to be better at finding pitchers than hitters, it makes sense to use a high first round pick on an advanced hitter who has already established that they can hit against tough competition and with wood bats--a hitter whose talent doesn't take great scouting acumen to recognize. To me, that means Smoak.

But, much of that can be contributed to *luck*, imo.

Also, don't count your chickens...

Arietta isn't in Baltimore's rotation yet. :laughlol:

I have *defended* the merits of selecting Matusz in the 1st round and would be very happy with that pick.

But- I would be elated with Smoak, too.

In fact, if I was picking I would likely take Smoak over Matusz.

But, I trust Jordan & Company to make the right selection. They know a *little* bit more than me. :rofl:

[66-70-83-??]

lol, thanks for the link, though I'm not sure I qualify as an expert.

I actually do agree with you though...maybe not with the same intensity, but I think people may overrate his safe factor. I go back to 2006 when Greg Reynolds was drafted with the #2 pick or in 2004 when Jeremy Sowers was drafted with the #6 pick. You have these guys praised for great command, and feel for pitching, and pitchability, but then you see they don't really have the greatest stuff in the world.

Matusz should reach the majors and be a productive pitcher, but I don't think the upside goes higher than a #2. I think he is more like a solid #3 or a very good #4. But it is true there are adjustments that can be made to boost the quality of his stuff though it is easier said than done.

I would prefer to draft a hitter, but if we were to draft a pitcher I would rather it be Crow even though he is more of an injury risk because he possesses both top-level stuff and command and those are the pitchers that usually reach their full potential

I don't know either. I don't know what the criteria is...... especially when it comes to the draft. Everyone has an opinion- but how do those opinions look several years down the road.

We all can spout definitive opinions pre-draft. We all can pick apart the top college/HS players and say why they will be stars or give reasons why they will not. But, none of us has a crystal ball.

But, your website has lots of good & interesting stuff!

[markpolis]

But, much of that can be contributed to *luck*, imo.

Also, don't count your chickens...

Arietta isn't in Baltimore's rotation yet. :laughlol:

I have *defended* the merits of selecting Matusz in the 1st round and would be very happy with that pick.

But- I would be elated with Smoak, too.

In fact, if I was picking I would likely take Smoak over Matusz.

But, I trust Jordan & Company to make the right selection. They know a *little* bit more than me. :rofl:

I agree with everything you said above. ^^^

Why are people continually knocking Matusz because he "only" throws 91-94 MPH's? That's insane. People are dissing him because he pitches "backwards". Do people realize it's called "pitching" and not "throwing"?

Matusz has a wicked curve and incredible changeup. He can spot his fastball on either side of the plate. He uses his offspeed pitches as his out pitches.

The kid knows how to pitch. He should be given credit for that, not being knocked. I'd much rather have a guy like Matusz than someone who has to learn how to pitch and throw strikes. (Loewen and until recently D-Cab)

Please knock him because you don't think the Orioles should take a pitcher with their 1st pick, but to knock him because he knows how to pitch is plain silly.

I, too, would prefer a bat over a pitcher in the first round. But if JJ selects Matusz I will be happy and look forward to seeing him in the majors in short order.

This from BA: "Matusz profiles as a middle of the rotation starter at worst, and if he improves his fastball and mechanics, he can become a staff ace." Both things are easily corrected.

[DocJJ]

Reasons why I'd be disappointed if we take Matusz:

1. We seem to have a decent amount of pitching on the farm. Sure, you can never have enough of a good thing, and excess pitching can be used to trade for what you need, but still...

2. We do NOT have enough hitting/position talent on the farm.

3. This draft seems to have A LOT of very good top-flight hitters, it would be a bummer not to come away with one.

4. Some of these hitters are not too far away from the bigs (according to the scouts) and heaven knows the O's could use some bats.

5. watching his unorthodox delivery makes me worry he'll get hurt.

B. Posey, G. Beckham, T. Beckham, J. Smoak, E. Hosmer, P. Alvarez.

Just take one!!!!!! (preferably Posey, Smoak, Alvarez!!!)

[Stotle]

Reasons why I'd be disappointed if we take Matusz:

1. We seem to have a decent amount of pitching on the farm. Sure, you can never have enough of a good thing, and excess pitching can be used to trade for what you need, but still...

2. We do NOT have enough hitting/position talent on the farm.

3. This draft seems to have A LOT of very good top-flight hitters, it would be a bummer not to come away with one.

4. Some of these hitters are not too far away from the bigs (according to the scouts) and heaven knows the O's could use some bats.

5. watching his unorthodox delivery makes me worry he'll get hurt.

B. Posey, G. Beckham, T. Beckham, J. Smoak, E. Hosmer, P. Alvarez.

Just take one!!!!!! (preferably Posey, Smoak, Alvarez!!!)

1 and 2 aren't good reasons to not take pitching.

3 is questionable. The draft is heavy in corner IFs, but it isn't anywhere near the quality of '05. There are some solid picks, but I'm not sure there are truly great all-around hitters outside of maybe Alvarez, T-Bex, Posey....Smoak/Hosmer?

4 may be true. Out of the studs, though, only Smoak/Alonso/Alvarez/Posey and maybe G-Bex, right? BUT.....

4 should not matter. You don't draft for quick fixes to organizational problems. You take the people that will be the best ballplayers, period. It's AM's job to figure out how to fill the holes at the ML level -- Jordan is just supposed to get the best talent possible into the pipeline.

5 has merit.

As always, just my take....

[NoVaO]

When you say top level stuff, are we just talking about the radar readings. I believe Crow throws 3-4 mph faster than Matusz but are his other pitches as good? Is his command better? I realize college strikeout numbers aren't the best indicator of stuff but Matusz clearly wins in that area as well.

BTW, Sowers is an interesting comp for Matusz but if I recall Sowers was a guy who was upper 80's who topped out around 90. Unless I'm mistaken, Matusz is a low 90's guy who tops out at 94. His stuff sounds very Eric Bedardish to me, although on a good day Bedard could throw a little harder.

Here's a light interview with Matusz. Says his favorite pitch is the changeup.

Crow's slider I think is as good as Matusz's curveball. His change-up I have read is anywhere from "solid" to "good" to "plus". He has excellent command of his fastball, while Matusz has better command of his breaking pitches, but the command of his breaking pitches are still solid overall.

Here is an interesting note:

Missouri's park factor from 04 - 07 was 137, while the park factor for stadiums Missouri played in was 123. San Diego on the other hand was 91 and 93.

I've read that Crow generates a lot of ground balls, but I have no numbers to work with. I haven't heard if Matusz is a GB or FB pitcher.

Matusz has better stuff than Sowers, but the language being used to describe each pitcher is similar in my mind. Sowers has yet to become a successful big league pitcher and my guess is will likely never do so (at least on a consistent basis), while Matusz should be a #3 starter as a solid mid-range projection.

I'm not sure about the Bedard comparisons. Bedard did throw harder and his fastball had more pop to it than Matusz and his curveball had more bite.

Matusz's curve reminds me more of a better version of Garret Olson's in how it sweeps across the plate and ends up down and in to righties (low and away to lefties).

Also, to clear up some issues regarding velocity, by comparison, using that pitch f/x data stuff, Santana throws his fastball on average at 92.75 mph, while Bedard sits on average at 92.35.

Matusz wouldn't be a bad pick by any stretch, but I prefer Crow or even better, one of the position players available.

[baltimoriole]

If the O's draft Matusz then I'll be fine with that so long as they start to trade off other pitchers to make room for the youngster. At this point trading Cabrera will have to become a reality because he is the only pitcher capable of fetching a top bat in a trade. The O's better hope he continues his dominance because if he were to keep up his current rate he'd be able to get a return similar, but probably not quite as good, as the Bedard deal.

Cabrera would definately be able to get the O's a top tier bat and probably a high ceiling lower class pitcher.

[ChaosLex]

Provided we spend the rest of the early draft rounds on position players, I can stomach taking Matusz or Crow in the 1st Round.

[baltimoriole]

How would it be if JJ decided to pick one of Matusz or Crow and Tanner Scheppers fell to the O's in the second and JJ once again felt like the pitcher was the best talent available? I know I'd be excited because the O's got a top flite pitcher in the 2nd, but still bummed because they haven't addressed the field.

[Go_Os]

When you say top level stuff, are we just talking about the radar readings. I believe Crow throws 3-4 mph faster than Matusz but are his other pitches as good? Is his command better? I realize college strikeout numbers aren't the best indicator of stuff but Matusz clearly wins in that area as well.

BTW, Sowers is an interesting comp for Matusz but if I recall Sowers was a guy who was upper 80's who topped out around 90. Unless I'm mistaken, Matusz is a low 90's guy who tops out at 94. His stuff sounds very Eric Bedardish to me, although on a good day Bedard could throw a little harder.

Here's a light interview with Matusz. Says his favorite pitch is the changeup.

Matusz looks and pitches like Cole Hamels.