Cashner signing

[murph]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Good point.

It is and if Tillman is there in camp with the O's, you have to think he is tucked away getting his work in somewhere so he will be ready if/when they sign him.  

[FanSince88]

1 hour ago, Babypowder said:

I’ll take the under on innings and the over on ERA.

I also think Miley outperforms him because Miley returns to being something in the neighborhood of average.

Apples to oranges because Miley will be in the NL facing a pitcher each time through the lineup.  Even with that, I'm fairly confident he fails to make the ML or if he does, his ERA turns out worse than Cashner even without adjusting for park and league.  

[FanSince88]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

Kind of wild that a starter that had a 4.6 WAR last season gets $16M and Tommy Hunter, 93 IP over the last two seasons, gets  $18M.

I like Hunter too.

Not that wild, just means there are less suckers out there anymore.  Nobody thinks there's a snowball's chance in h-e-double hockey sticks that Cashner posts a sub-3.5 ERA in 2018.  

[section18]

Several people speaking on the radio today seem to think we are signing another starter to go along with Cashner.  If Tillman signs he would be the fifth guy to battle with Cortes, Castro and others in camp. I saw somewhere a possible Givens for McHugh trade with the Astros was discussed.  McHugh is affordable 5 mill and a solid veteran starter.  He would also add a lot to the rotation. Bring in Dyson for speed and to bat leadoff and either Jay or Saunders.  Cargo is still out there.  Would he return to form and show his best numbers again playing at OP? Something tells me he's coming here on a 1 year deal.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Sound like Brady is on track for the GM next year.

Sounds like Brady played a role in signing Cashner but waiting until Feb 15th to sign him is Dan's MO.

[El Gordo]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sounds like Brady played a role in signing Cashner but waiting until Feb 15th to sign him is Dan's MO.

We'll see.

[ThomasTomasz]

2 hours ago, section18 said:

Several people speaking on the radio today seem to think we are signing another starter to go along with Cashner.  If Tillman signs he would be the fifth guy to battle with Cortes, Castro and others in camp. I saw somewhere a possible Givens for McHugh trade with the Astros was discussed.  McHugh is affordable 5 mill and a solid veteran starter.  He would also add a lot to the rotation. Bring in Dyson for speed and to bat leadoff and either Jay or Saunders.  Cargo is still out there.  Would he return to form and show his best numbers again playing at OP? Something tells me he's coming here on a 1 year deal.

Givens for McHugh would be an awful trade, not at all taking into account the current value of relievers on both the FA and trade market.  Plus, Givens has four years of club control for us, and could very well overtake Brach for the closer role.  McHugh is currently spare parts for the Astros.  Really bad trade if we do make this.  

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree, but don't you think if the O's have seen him throw (which they have) and he had his old mechanics back that the O's would have given him a MLB deal?

It’s a huge risk.    IMO, they need to sign someone likely to be better than Cashner.    If they have a little money left over for Tillman after that, fine.   

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

That's not going to be nearly good enough to cut it in the AL East, unless we have an elite offense AND an elite defense behind them.  And it's unlikely either of them are even above average.  

Still, this would be fine if we decide to trade Manny and go all in for a rebuild.  Cashner's innings-based incentives make me thing he's primarily here to protect against Harvey or another too-young minor-league from being prematurely brought up.  

We made the playoffs in 2016 with a rotation of Tillman, Gausman, Ubaldo, Gallardo, Wright/Wilson/Worley. 

I think Bundy, Gausman, Cashner, Tillman, Castro/Cortes/Wright could be better. 

[weams]

 

[backwardsk]

7 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

Not that wild, just means there are less suckers out there anymore.  Nobody thinks there's a snowball's chance in h-e-double hockey sticks that Cashner posts a sub-3.5 ERA in 2018.  

I don't think anybody is expecting him to replicate his 2017 season. But I would definitely pay more for a guy who is slightly above league average for his career (102 ERA+) and gives you around 160 IP/year than a reliever who has been up and down in his career and will give you  40-60IP/yr.

IMO the market for starters has over corrected at the same time the reliever market is overpriced.

[Dark Helmet]

7 hours ago, section18 said:

I've been in favor of signing Cashner from the beginning and after hearing three interviews with him tonight I think our fans will like him a lot.  Very positive guy and for him to fly right in today and then have to go back home on Sunday and turn around and come right back is special.  H e could have waited until Sunday to fly in and taken his time but didn't.  I like him a lot. 

It is interesting in his interview he mentioned "he liked was Brady was building here". Never mentioned Duquette.

[DrungoHazewood]

59 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We made the playoffs in 2016 with a rotation of Tillman, Gausman, Ubaldo, Gallardo, Wright/Wilson/Worley. 

I think Bundy, Gausman, Cashner, Tillman, Castro/Cortes/Wright could be better. 

What percentage of teams in MLB history with a rotation of that quality compared to the league would have made the playoffs?  It can't be very high.  That was a team that made the playoffs despite their rotation.  That rotation was almost a dare, a contest to see how poor a rotation you could have and still play a postseason game.

[DrungoHazewood]

There have been seven pitchers in the last five years who had a K rate under 5.00, and qualified for the ERA title.

Kevin Correia, 2013.  In 2014 he posted a 5.44 ERA, and in 2015 he pitched the last 23 innings of his career.
Jeremy Guthrie, 2013.  In 2014 he actually upped his K rate and had a better year.  In 2015 his ERA was 5.95 and his career essentially ended.
Martin Perez, 2016.  In 2017 he had a 4.82 ERA.
Cashner, Perez' teammate.
Ty Blach, 2017.  Obviously we don't know about 2018 yet. In '17 he had a 4.78 ERA, good for a 87 ERA+.
Mark Buehrle, 2015.  Retired after the season.
Mike Pelfrey, 2015.  In the following two years he combined to throw 239 innings to a 5.50.

"Ground ball pitcher" is a descriptive term, not a quality measurement.

[Luke-OH]

27 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There have been seven pitchers in the last five years who had a K rate under 5.00, and qualified for the ERA title.

Kevin Correia, 2013.  In 2014 he posted a 5.44 ERA, and in 2015 he pitched the last 23 innings of his career.
Jeremy Guthrie, 2013.  In 2014 he actually upped his K rate and had a better year.  In 2015 his ERA was 5.95 and his career essentially ended.
Martin Perez, 2016.  In 2017 he had a 4.82 ERA.
Cashner, Perez' teammate.
Ty Blach, 2017.  Obviously we don't know about 2018 yet. In '17 he had a 4.78 ERA, good for a 87 ERA+.
Mark Buehrle, 2015.  Retired after the season.
Mike Pelfrey, 2015.  In the following two years he combined to throw 239 innings to a 5.50.

"Ground ball pitcher" is a descriptive term, not a quality measurement.

I agree it’s not a promising profile, but one thing I noticed when I was digging through the data on brooksbaseball was that it seems like the lower strikeout rate was mostly a matter of choice for Cashner. He switched from Slider to Cutter which missed far less bats. He also threw his sinker much more instead of his 4S fastball that generates almost twice as many swinging strikes. I’m tempted at least to think he could go back to 2015/2016 Cashner if he wanted to.