Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, theocean said:

Live a little. Let the team try to win in the postseason. Its just as big of a gamble to trade current players for prospects from other teams. Take a look back and see how bad some star-for-prospects trades have worked out.

It's not. The bigger gamble is letting these players walk and getting nothing in return. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I would sign Moustakas and Lynn and go all in this year. We have a rising farm system. If we're out of it on 7/31 then start your rebuild. Short term give yourself a shot at greatness. We have a lot of guys on contract years. They could have huge years that would carry this team. 

I hear ya, but this team seems to only be willing to go half in. That's was so frustrating about the management of the team. 

[clapdiddy]

6 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I hear ya, but this team seems to only be willing to go half in. That's was so frustrating about the management of the team. 

Heck, if you want to go ALL in, cut your losses with Tillman now, sign Arietta AND Lynn, plus Moustakas.   You are absolutely right about this team's idea of "all in".  

[pdiddy]

14 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Heck, if you want to go ALL in, cut your losses with Tillman now, sign Arietta AND Lynn, plus Moustakas.   You are absolutely right about this team's idea of "all in".  

Yeah, I was going to say all in would be signing both pitchers, not a pitcher and Moustakas. I think there’s still a small chance (very) that sign 2 SPs. No chance they sign Moustakas in any instance, nor would I want them to.

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, theocean said:

Everything DD said makes sense to me. And it lines up with everything we've seen the club doing.

I don't think we can really argue with the logic. And, it's March 3rd. While a lot of posters here have been impatient about how this team isn't ready to "compete" - it seems like DD is playing the market right. There's a ton of good free agents left that are probably looking at one year deals right now. That allows the O's to compete in 2018 with the core and also have payroll flexibility in the future.

We are thinking similarly by believing that this was the plan -- though tweaked as every day goes along, like compound interest -- for the Orioles under Dook: go for the window every year it is open. It is smart; hot teams steal championships. The Orioles should have won the World Series in 2014. In 1969, 1971 and 1979, too. Maybe they can steal one this year like they did in 1966.

[Bradysburns]

2 hours ago, 25 Nuggets said:

We've seen this strategy coming for so long.  So long.  And yet in this final year of the window, the Orioles don't look like contenders on paper as currently constructed.

Excellent point -- THE point, IMO. It's all good to "go for it"... But in your "go for it" year, your rotation consists of two unproven youngsters, a mediocre veteran, a reclamation project in Tillman and a question mark. 

So... that being the case, WHY is that the case? I think this is where DD's logic breaks down. 

We're exchanging whatever we might have gotten for Machado (and maybe Britton and Jones) for whatever percentage chance we have to make the post-season with that starting rotation. 

That's riverboat gambler time, folks. 

[Ohfan67]

DD missed the part where Houston traded away players at peak value as part of the rebuild. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

[Drifter]

It's the same old same old in Oriole land. I believe the organization is shooting for the wild card. They know they can't win the division, unless a boatload of things go right. 

DD might be waiting for the trade deadline, and move the players who are not under contract beyond 2018-19. If they ARE in the race, they'll pick up just enough to barely make it, or miss out. Then we'll see what happens.

I base these dumbass opinions on my own knowledge, as small as it is .

[Rene88]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What the team's goal?

Play 500+ ball or a ring?

O's fans had to go through 14 years of losing and we didn't see a world series appearance.

 

How many postseason appearances does it take to even out six losing seasons?  Does one ring put them in the black, two?

I'm not saying that it is the right strategy for every team (Yankees managed to rebuild without tanking) but it certainly worked for them.

I'd rather go through an Astros style rebuild than the meandering malaise of an Orioles style rebuild.

Best post I have read on this board in a while. Corn gets it.

[Frobby]

31 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

DD missed the part where Houston traded away players at peak value as part of the rebuild. 

So, in 2008 the Astros were 86-75. The next year they dropped to 74-88.    You know who they traded away after 2009?    Nobody of any importance whatsoever.   Then they went 76-86.   Only at the deadline that year did they start trading their veterans, when they were about 15 games below .500.   So in other words, to this point the O’s have acted exactly as the Astros did.    

[now]

2 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

To even the untrained eye the whole thing seemed mismanaged the moment we made the playoffs. I think the Orioles’ fortunes are the product of dumb luck as opposed to formulated organization.

Problem is, it doesn't even take much dumb luck to make the playoffs, with a third of the teams qualifying every year. We made it three years, when the odds say a random team will make it twice, anyway, over a given six-year period. So even this year, we have a sucker's chance. We're stuck in the old paradigm, but it's more like an NHL model now.

[theocean]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's not. The bigger gamble is letting these players walk and getting nothing in return. 

Machado and Jones would turn down QOs. With how the reliever market has been, it’s reasonable to think Brach and Britton would both turn them down as well if they have good years.

Thats a ton of early draft picks. How is that nothing in return?

The Bedard trade is the exception, not the norm.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, pdiddy said:

Yeah, I was going to say all in would be signing both pitchers, not a pitcher and Moustakas. I think there’s still a small chance (very) that sign 2 SPs. No chance they sign Moustakas in any instance, nor would I want them to.

One of the big three and Neil Walker would be pretty close to all in for us. 

[theocean]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, in 2008 the Astros were 86-75. The next year they dropped to 74-88.    You know who they traded away after 2009?    Nobody of any importance whatsoever.   Then they went 76-86.   Only at the deadline that year did they start trading their veterans, when they were about 15 games below .500.   So in other words, to this point the O’s have acted exactly as the Astros did.    

Exactly, this is how the Astros built their 2017 team:

- Carlos Correa: Drafted

- Alex Bregman: Drafted

- Jose Altuve: International Signing

- George Springer: Drafted

- Dallas Keuchel: Drafted

-  Yuli Gurriel: International Signing

- Josh Reddick: Free Agent

- Lance McCullers: Drafted

- Carlos Beltran: Free Agent

- Justin Verlander: Trade, acquired for three minor leagues Astros drafted

- Brad Peacock: Trade, acquired in package for Jed Lowrie

- Marwin Gonzalez: Trade, acquired for Marco Duarte (International Signing)

- Ken Giles: Trade, acquired for Mark Appel (drafted), Vince Velasquez (drafted), Brett Oberholtzer (acquired for Michael Bourn), and two other minor leagues the Astros drafted

- Charlie Morton: Free Agent

- Collin McHugh: Waivers

- Mike Friers: Trade, acquired in the Carlos Gomez trade, gave up Hader and Domingo Santana

- Brian McCann: Trade

- Evan Gattis: Trade

Meanwhile, when the Astros did trade their players, this is what they got in return:

- Michael Bourn: Juan Abreu, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer, Jordan Schafer

- Hunter Pence: Jarred Cosarrt, Jon Singleton, Josh Zeid, Domingo Santana

- Bud Norris: Josh Hader, LJ Hoes

- Dexter Fowler: Dan Straily, Luis Valbuena

- Jed Lowrie: Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi

- Roy Oswalt: Anthony Gose, JA Happ, Jonathan Villar

- Brett Myers: Matt Heidenreich, Blair Walters, Chris Devenski

- JA Happ: Fracisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojciechowki, Carlos Perez, David Rollins

- Wandy Rodriguez: Colton Cain, Robbie Grossman, Rudy Owens

- Carlos Lee: Matt Dominguez, Rob Rasmussen

- Chris Johnson: Bobby Borchering, Marc Krauss

 

In summary, even if the Astros didn't make the Carlos Gomez trade, all they would have had from trading those players would have been a bullpen arm in Josh Hader, an outfielder with power in Domingo Santana, and some decent starters. That's not a World Series team. The team was built in the draft. 

Basically, DD has it right. Compete this year. Let Machado/Jones/Britton turn down qualifying offers. Take the draft picks. Trade O'Day and Trumbo in the offseason for whatever you can get. Trade Schoop for a nice package. Use the money they aren't spending on payroll to sign some international free agents. Be ready to go for it again in three years with Bundy/Gausman/Harvey/Hall/Sedlock leading the staff.

Makes sense to me.