Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[Enjoy Terror]

Angelos doesn’t do international free agents and DD isn’t guaranteed to come back, particularly if the O’s go to sale.

[sportsfan8703]

If Tony Batista could play 3rd base why can’t Mountcastle?  

I haven’t seen Mountcastle play. How is he compared to Jimmy Parades at the hot corner?

[mdbdotcom]

6 hours ago, theocean said:

Basically, DD has it right. Compete this year. Let Machado/Jones/Britton turn down qualifying offers. Take the draft picks. Trade O'Day and Trumbo in the offseason for whatever you can get. Trade Schoop for a nice package. Use the money they aren't spending on payroll to sign some international free agents. Be ready to go for it again in three years with Bundy/Gausman/Harvey/Hall/Sedlock leading the staff.

 

 

O'Day will have 10/5 no-trade rights after this season. No one wants Trumbo. Gausman will be gone after 2020 and Bundy after 2021. The only tradeable assets we will have who are worth trading and will be too close to free agency to be  part of the next core will be Schoop, Gausman and Bundy. Those are the guys to trade if we go all in on a rebuild after this season (or, at the deadline). 

[Hank Scorpio]

What’s most depressing to me is that the mere concept that the Orioles would even attempt to keep any of these guys after this season is already plainly dismissed.

I will feel much better about the organization when they can develop pitching. If you are getting by with smoke and mirrors in terms of your pitching, you’re probably not gonna make much noise in October even if you do get in. 

Hopefully Bundy and Gausman both have their respective lights turn on this year. The only way this team competes is if they have a better than average starting pitching staff. It just doesn’t LOOK like they are likely to at this point in time. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

O'Day will have 10/5 no-trade rights after this season. No one wants Trumbo. Gausman will be gone after 2020 and Bundy after 2021. The only tradeable assets we will have who are worth trading and will be too close to free agency to be  part of the next core will be Schoop, Gausman and Bundy. Those are the guys to trade if we go all in on a rebuild after this season (or, at the deadline). 

Givens has value.

O'Day has limited no trade protection already (seven teams).

[Triple Crown]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Tony Batista could play 3rd base why can’t Mountcastle?  

I haven’t seen Mountcastle play. How is he compared to Jimmy Parades at the hot corner?

From what I've seen Mountcastle has no chance of sticking at 3rd. I personally can't see him ever playing any infield position other than 1st, is arm is just that weak, he actually struggles with his warm up throws to first, wish he had a better arm, but just not so

[Luke-OH]

22 minutes ago, Triple Crown said:

From what I've seen Mountcastle has no chance of sticking at 3rd. I personally can't see him ever playing any infield position other than 1st, is arm is just that weak, he actually struggles with his warm up throws to first, wish he had a better arm, but just not so

Yeah, pretty much this. If you want a league average defender at 3B, there is almost 0% chance. If you are ok with a solidly below average 3B defense, then maybe 30% chance of sticking, but that’d require maxing out his footwork and hands or serious improving his throwing. Both of which are unlikely. 

He was put there because of a Manny-sized hole, not because of his skill set.

[Tx Oriole]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

What the team's goal?

Play 500+ ball or a ring?

O's fans had to go through 14 years of losing and we didn't see a world series appearance.

 

How many postseason appearances does it take to even out six losing seasons?  Does one ring put them in the black, two?

I'm not saying that it is the right strategy for every team (Yankees managed to rebuild without tanking) but it certainly worked for them.

I'd rather go through an Astros style rebuild than the meandering malaise of an Orioles style rebuild.

I sure would too. 

[Woody Held]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Tony Batista could play 3rd base why can’t Mountcastle?  

I haven’t seen Mountcastle play. How is he compared to Jimmy Parades at the hot corner?

I saw him at spring training and he booted a Couple but every throw was an adventure .  Some were three steps up the line or over a jumping Trumbo or Davis.  Wilder than the Tasmanian Devil

[wildbillhiccup]

10 hours ago, theocean said:

Machado and Jones would turn down QOs. With how the reliever market has been, it’s reasonable to think Brach and Britton would both turn them down as well if they have good years.

Thats a ton of early draft picks. How is that nothing in return?

The Bedard trade is the exception, not the norm.

Not really. Good (smart) teams trade big name players before they become free agents. It's how the game is played. And receiving multiple high level prospects, who have proven themselves at the minor league level is certainly better than receiving one who has not. The best / most recent example are the White Sox. 

[Enjoy Terror]

14 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying that it is the right strategy for every team (Yankees managed to rebuild without tanking) but it certainly worked for them.

I've tried to find faults with the way the Yankees rebuilt, and outside of the instances where they spent a ton of money to flip Chapman for Torres and Miller for Frazier, their farm system is built mostly from the draft and signing lower cost int'l free agents, which is admirable. In terms of what the Yankees did in 2009 by signing 3 of the top 4 free agents to buy their championship, this is a radically different approach and it's kind of refreshing in a truly scary way. I used to think that Cashman was just a dude with a big purse, but now I'm second guessing myself.

What the Yankees do have is the reputation and goodwill (and the money as well) to attract the best players, the best scouts, the best trainers, and the best coaches. They squeeze talent out of marginally talented people. The Orioles have not done a good job with aligning their scouting and development and probably aren't working with a top notch staff, and the Yankees have capitalized on their position in what I would consider a market inefficiency. Just my opinion.

The only fault I can find with the Yankees is that they can't draft a successful first rounder to save their lives. If you look at all of the 40-man rosters right now, there are only four in baseball: Hughes, Clarkin, Kennedy and Judge. Only one of those is a Yankee. We have four on our team alone. Kaprielian and Rutherford might be something someday for other teams.

[Ohfan67]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, in 2008 the Astros were 86-75. The next year they dropped to 74-88.    You know who they traded away after 2009?    Nobody of any importance whatsoever.   Then they went 76-86.   Only at the deadline that year did they start trading their veterans, when they were about 15 games below .500.   So in other words, to this point the O’s have acted exactly as the Astros did.    

Touche (although my comment was partly tongue-in-cheek). I admit the Orioles are in a weird situation. The status of pending free agents, etc., screams rebuild. But they have performed much better in the immediate past than most teams that do a complete tear down and rebuild. The idea of letting Manny walk without trade compensation, however, is blatantly stupid no matter what. It does seem like DD is getting the team ready to handle an in-season trade of Manny, however, so maybe the Orioles will get something for Manny before all is said and done. 

 

I would like the Orioles to actually be smarter than the Astros in some ways. The 2011, 2012, and 2013 Astros were beyond pathetic. I saw the Orioles play those teams in Houston and some of those teams were worst than the worst Orioles teams of the early 2000's. Lethargic incompetence. The Cubs are a better model IMO, although the Orioles organization is probably closer to the Astros than the Cubs in terms of talent and resources. 

[Todd-O]

This has got to be the most depressing fan forum - ever.  The O's just went through an incredible renaissance... they've led the AL in total wins for what, the last 5 or 6 years?  We've had an opportunity to watch legit stars.  

They were a few short games from getting to the WS in 2014 - and that's without Davis, Machado, and Wieters.  Everything aligned to that point. It didn't happen.

What's with the constant trashing and total disregard for the franchise?

It's pitiful.

Enjoy it, for the love all that's good. 

Every year it's the same thing:  we're going to suck.  We have nothing.  Our team is run by a ship of fools.... 

Why not sit back and enjoy the ride?  Let these guys play the game.  They might very well have a great ride in them this year.  Good grief.

 

 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Not really. Good (smart) teams trade big name players before they become free agents. It's how the game is played. And receiving multiple high level prospects, who have proven themselves at the minor league level is certainly better than receiving one who has not. The best / most recent example are the White Sox. 

The market fluctuates, and the innate value of the player doesn’t always drive the return a team gets for that player.    Bedard is actually a great example.     He happened to be made available in a year when the FA market for starting pitchers stunk and there were a lot of teams thinking that one more good starter might put them into the playoffs or over the top.    If a player with the exact same credentials had been offered on the trade market this offseason, I can pretty much guarantee you he wouldn’t have attracted the same quality return that Bedard did ten years ago.

That said, there’s a talent for timing the market.   Cashman did a great job of that in 2016 when he traded Chapman, Miller and others.   There was an arms race on for relievers among a few elite clubs, and Cashman saw the opportunity and jumped.    DD doesn’t seem to have much sense of that.   

[esmd]

The writing is on the wall, and it's not rocket science.  You've got a bunch of young guys ready to hit the majors this year or next (Hays, Sisco, Mountcastle, Mullins, Harvey, etc.).  2019 is the year to put those guys into the lineup and see who sinks and who swims.  The starting 9 and the rotation appear to be mostly set other than the 5th starter, but maybe that gets sorted out this year from among Wright, Cortes, or Castro.  The 'pen will need some work with Brach and Britton likely gone, although I could see Britton's value being down enough with his injuries and what not for the O's to possibly retain him, assuming he doesn't come in and have a monster 2nd half, which is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.  We'll see.  Then there's the bench.  But IMO 2019 will be about seeing who among the prospects is ready for prime time.

LF Mancini

CF Mullins

RF Hays

3B Mountcastle

SS Beckham

2B Schoop

1B Davis

C Sisco

DH Trumbo

 

SP Bundy

SP Gausman

SP Cashner

SP Harvey

SP Castro?  Cortes? Wright (if he makes it through 2018 without getting DFA'd)?

RP Bleier

RP Cortes/Cortes/Wright?

RP Araujo (assuming he sticks in 2018)?

RP Yacabonis/Aquino?

RP Scott/Ramirez/Hart/TBD

SU O'Day

Closer Givens

Bench Joseph

Bench Rickard?

Bench Santander?

Bench Tejada/Sardinas?

Bench