Duquette Suggests Rebuild Could Be Possible After This Year

[mdbdotcom]

In Mark Feisand's MLB.com column yesterday, he had a conversation with Dan Duquette that went in an unexpected direction.

Quote

 

Given the number of high-profile fixtures that can become free agents after the season, is Duquette looking at this as the last shot for this core to take a run at a World Series?

"Yes," he said.

Does that mean he doesn't expect the Orioles to be major players in next offseason's mega-market?

Baltimore has roughly $51 million committed to four players in 2019 and a little more than the $21 million due to Chris Davis from 2020-22, leaving the club plenty of payroll flexibility if it chooses to make a play for a big name or two next offseason.

"We'll see," Duquette said. "We have a little more depth of talent in our organization down below, so that's encouraging for the future for being competitive. We'll have to see how this year goes, because there's a number of key free agents on the ballclub. It's a transition year for the Orioles, probably, after this one."

That transition year could mean a rebuild, a strategy Duquette notes has worked quite well for the past two World Series champions.

"A lot of these teams, it's the ages, the timing and the talent level, then do you have all your resources together at the same time?" Duquette said. "Look at what the Cubs and Astros did; they tore down the house and they built it up from the foundation. And they did pretty well.

"There is some logic toward doing that, right? You get the premium picks in the Draft and they can become the core players for your next championship club. A lot of this is timing; it's cyclical."

 

 

[atomic]

The Astros had 6 straight losing seasons including 3 straight with 56 or less wins.   I don't think that is a good strategy.  They are losing Jones,  Machado and Britton.  They have a bunch of guys who can step into the lineup.   Hardly the case for Astros type situation.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, atomic said:

The Astros had 6 straight losing seasons including 3 straight with 56 or less wins.   I don't think that is a good strategy.  They are losing Jones,  Machado and Britton.  They have a bunch of guys who can step into the lineup.   Hardly the case for Astros type situation.

What the team's goal?

Play 500+ ball or a ring?

O's fans had to go through 14 years of losing and we didn't see a world series appearance.

 

How many postseason appearances does it take to even out six losing seasons?  Does one ring put them in the black, two?

I'm not saying that it is the right strategy for every team (Yankees managed to rebuild without tanking) but it certainly worked for them.

I'd rather go through an Astros style rebuild than the meandering malaise of an Orioles style rebuild.

[25 Nuggets]

We've seen this strategy coming for so long.  So long.  And yet in this final year of the window, the Orioles don't look like contenders on paper as currently constructed.

[theocean]

59 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

In Mark Feisand's MLB.com column yesterday, he had a conversation with Dan Duquette that went in an unexpected direction.

 

Everything DD said makes sense to me. And it lines up with everything we've seen the club doing.

I don't think we can really argue with the logic. And, it's March 3rd. While a lot of posters here have been impatient about how this team isn't ready to "compete" - it seems like DD is playing the market right. There's a ton of good free agents left that are probably looking at one year deals right now. That allows the O's to compete in 2018 with the core and also have payroll flexibility in the future.

[FanSince88]

1 minute ago, theocean said:

Everything DD said makes sense to me. And it lines up with everything we've seen the club doing.

I don't think we can really argue with the logic. And, it's March 3rd. While a lot of posters here have been impatient about how this team isn't ready to "compete" - it seems like DD is playing the market right. There's a ton of good free agents left that are probably looking at one year deals right now. That allows the O's to compete in 2018 with the core and also have payroll flexibility in the future.

There is a certain logic to this, I guess.  But it's a big gamble.  If we miss the postseason and fail to trade Machado, Jones, and Brach at the deadline, rebuilding becomes much more difficult than it would have been with an injection of legit young talent via trade.  Not saying it's impossible but certainly becomes more difficult.  And God forbid DD decides to make another ill-advised buy at the 2018 deadline where we trade a promising prospect of ours for a questionable journeyman who probably has negligible impact on our postseason potential.  

[now]

1 minute ago, FanSince88 said:

There is a certain logic to this, I guess.  But it's a big gamble.  If we miss the postseason and fail to trade Machado, Jones, and Brach at the deadline, rebuilding becomes much more difficult than it would have been with an injection of legit young talent via trade.  Not saying it's impossible but certainly becomes more difficult.  And God forbid DD decides to make another ill-advised buy at the 2018 deadline where we trade a promising prospect of ours for a questionable journeyman who probably has negligible impact on our postseason potential.  

Quite right... and quite likely, given DD's comments about going for it. Shame, since the playoffs itself is a further high-risk gamble. Guess we can see that early brutal schedule as a good litmus test early on. By the break they might still be in it... or 20 games out.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

In Mark Feisand's MLB.com column yesterday, he had a conversation with Dan Duquette that went in an unexpected direction.

 

I guess he plans on being back after this year. Crap. I wanted him gone and Buck gone after this year. 

[Enjoy Terror]

21 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

We've seen this strategy coming for so long.  So long.  And yet in this final year of the window, the Orioles don't look like contenders on paper as currently constructed.

To even the untrained eye the whole thing seemed mismanaged the moment we made the playoffs. I think the Orioles’ fortunes are the product of dumb luck as opposed to formulated organization.

[mdbdotcom]

7 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I guess he plans on being back after this year. Crap. I wanted him gone and Buck gone after this year. 

I don't think he would have said it if he expected to be back. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

To even the untrained eye the whole thing seemed mismanaged the moment we made the playoffs. I think the Orioles’ fortunes are the product of dumb luck as opposed to formulated organization.

I think that they did make some really smart decisions over this stretch.

Chen for instance was a smart buy low after his stocked had dipped a bit due to injury.

[MikeAD]

It would be great if he was saying this at this time last year.  I would be thrilled if we start a rebuild but the foundation and first several floors of that rebuild depend on trading players and bringing in as much talent as possible.  Refreshing to hear this hope its not too late.  

[clapdiddy]

I don't get the impression he's going to be back from that article.   He only says "we" when he refers to this year's club.   I think the key quote is "It's a transition year for the Orioles, probably, after this one.".

[theocean]

1 hour ago, FanSince88 said:

There is a certain logic to this, I guess.  But it's a big gamble.  If we miss the postseason and fail to trade Machado, Jones, and Brach at the deadline, rebuilding becomes much more difficult than it would have been with an injection of legit young talent via trade.  Not saying it's impossible but certainly becomes more difficult.  And God forbid DD decides to make another ill-advised buy at the 2018 deadline where we trade a promising prospect of ours for a questionable journeyman who probably has negligible impact on our postseason potential.  

Live a little. Let the team try to win in the postseason. Its just as big of a gamble to trade current players for prospects from other teams. Take a look back and see how bad some star-for-prospects trades have worked out.

[wildbillhiccup]

So here's the thing. If we just admit that we have no shot of winning this season and trade Machado (and maybe Schoop too) we'll be able to stockpile our farm system with enough talent so that it only takes a few years to rebuild. That's why I'm willing to sacrifice this season. And if the team was on the fence about what direction it should go on, the Stanton and JD Martinez acquisitions should have made their decision an easy one. But it didn't. They continue to straddle the fence of mediocrity hoping a million different things go right this season so they have one more shot. We're essentially playing the lottery at the expense of of the future and the odds are more than stacked against us.