2018 1st round pick (11) Grayson Rodriguez - RHP - Central Heights HS TX

[weams]

1 hour ago, markpolis said:

You do realize this report was made in jest? Here is the entire article. Clearly the guy isn't serious.

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/6/5/17411486/mlb-draft-2018-grades

The whole article is included in my post. 

[hoosiers]

1 hour ago, Three Run Homer said:

The reason that I thought of Hobgood when I read about Rodriguez is that both are big HS right handers who rose quickly in the rankings right before the draft because of a surge in fastball velocity.  

With hindsight, it's reasonable to suspect that Hobgood's velocity surge was either driven by performance-enhancing drugs or by putting unsustainable max effort into his pitches, in an attempt to impress the scouts to get a bigger signing bonus.  The O's experience with Hobgood makes me suspicious of HS pitchers with sudden surges in fastball velocity in their senior year.  Hopefully Rodriguez' surge is due to something sustainable like better mechanics, rather than something unsustainable.  

The late velo is common every year in multiple guys.  I tend to prefer them because, speaking generally, the late bloomers had to learn to pitch with lesser velo as sophomores and juniors and also have less stress on their arms.  Brandon Erbe, Maryland product and Bmore pick, was pretty much at the top or near the top in velo in his class through most of high school and ended up injured.  Zach Britton did not have big velo until his senior year.  

The size and frame and delivery of GRod suggest a pitcher who can be very successful in the bigs.  We'll see.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, hoosiers said:

The late velo is common every year in multiple guys.  I tend to prefer them because, speaking generally, the late bloomers had to learn to pitch with lesser velo as sophomores and juniors and also have less stress on their arms.  Brandon Erbe, Maryland product and Bmore pick, was pretty much at the top or near the top in velo in his class through most of high school and ended up injured.  Zach Britton did not have big velo until his senior year.  

The size and frame and delivery of GRod suggest a pitcher who can be very successful in the bigs.  We'll see.

Coffey had a velocity spike his senior year and blew out his elbow before the O's even selected him so it goes both ways.

I am suspicious that velocity spikes are a result of kids throwing to the gun.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

This is almost entirely speculation on my part, but I just don't think Hobgood had the mindset needed.  It was pretty well documented that he'd had some tough times with the loss of his father, and he never did seem to arrive in great shape here, and was hurt most of the time.  It's not fair since I don't know him, but I question how much drive he really had here.  It ended up being a bad pick, as many folks here projected it would be, but I think Jordan's philosophy here was sensible.

The guy blew out his shoulder, whatcha gonna do?   We’ll never know how he would have done if he stayed healthy.   

[Jammer7]

13 hours ago, markpolis said:

The comparisons between Hobgood and Rodriguez are valid and legitimate. You saying they are "clownish" and "lazy" are what is stupid.

First scouting report was from MLB.com in 2009 and the 2nd scouting report was from Bleacher Report with quotes from our very own scouting director in 2009 Joe Jordan.

 

Just so we’re clear, Hobgood was a large fella who had a tough time staying in shape through HS and beyond. I am being kind here. Gray Rod is a kid who worked hard in the gym to put on 25 pounds of muscle in the last year, but he was never out of shape as far as being heavy. Way different athlete and body type. So, the comparisons really are not at all valid from that perspective.

Why did Matt fail? Was he injured before we signed him? The competition levels they each faced during their HS years were very different. Their family system and support structures are vastly different. Hobgood really came out of relative obscurity, where Rodriguez was a known commodity who it was thought would get stronger and better in college. He just sped up the process.

I’m not calling anyone out, or calling anyone any names here. But to me, those comps are way off base.  

That said, he could blow out his arm, God forbid, and all the naysayers will say they told me so. But that is the draft and develop gamble all teams take with all of these players. Wouldn’t you rather take an educated gamble on a kid that has a competitive streak, busts his butt in his workouts, commands four above average pitches, touching 98 often without max effort while working 94-95 throughout his outings, holds his stuff and velocity late in games throughout the season with clean mechanics? 

Steven Strasburg was a chunky out of shape kid out of high school. Got in shape in college at SD State and was the #1-1 pick of the Nats several years ago. That one worked out ok, nobody complained because there was a consensus that year. But he wasn’t even drafted out of HS. But if you could have had him at #1-11 three years earlier, would you be ok with that? Just asking, not trying to be snarky there.

The way I interpret everything I have heard and read tells me that Grayson was a very good pick here. 

[Bradysburns]

16 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Just so we’re clear, Hobgood was a large fella who had a tough time staying in shape through HS and beyond. I am being kind here. Gray Rod is a kid who worked hard in the gym to put on 25 pounds of muscle in the last year, but he was never out of shape as far as being heavy. Way different athlete and body type. So, the comparisons really are not at all valid from that perspective.

Why did Matt fail? Was he injured before we signed him? The competition levels they each faced during their HS years were very different. Their family system and support structures are vastly different. Hobgood really came out of relative obscurity, where Rodriguez was a known commodity who it was thought would get stronger and better in college. He just sped up the process.

I’m not calling anyone out, or calling anyone any names here. But to me, those comps are way off base.  

That said, he could blow out his arm, God forbid, and all the naysayers will say they told me so. But that is the draft and develop gamble all teams take with all of these players. Wouldn’t you rather take an educated gamble on a kid that has a competitive streak, busts his butt in his workouts, commands four above average pitches, touching 98 often without max effort while working 94-95 throughout his outings, holds his stuff and velocity late in games throughout the season with clean mechanics? 

Steven Strasburg was a chunky out of shape kid out of high school. Got in shape in college at SD State and was the #1-1 pick of the Nats several years ago. That one worked out ok, nobody complained because there was a consensus that year. But he wasn’t even drafted out of HS. But if you could have had him at #1-11 three years earlier, would you be ok with that? Just asking, not trying to be snarky there.

The way I interpret everything I have heard and read tells me that Grayson was a very good pick here. 

It all looks good to me, too, in terms of GrayRod (love that name but can't take credit - another OH'er beat me to it). Looking at his windup and delivery, I do wonder if they're doing to start messing with his mechanics to speed up his delivery. He has a very deliberate windup that seems like it might be easy to time and steal on, etc. 

But hey, it's worked for him thus far. I can't wait to see him start mowing down some lower-minors hitters.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bradysburns said:

It all looks good to me, too, in terms of GrayRod (love that name but can't take credit - another OH'er beat me to it). Looking at his windup and delivery, I do wonder if they're doing to start messing with his mechanics to speed up his delivery. He has a very deliberate windup that seems like it might be easy to time and steal on, etc. 

But hey, it's worked for him thus far. I can't wait to see him start mowing down some lower-minors hitters.

Buck will be gone so maybe they will leave him alone.

[Bradysburns]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck will be gone so maybe they will leave him alone.

 

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Buck will be gone so maybe they will leave him alone.

Hopefully they'll do something slightly different than they have with every other pitching prospect of the past 10 years, right? I mean... our track record in this department isn't stellar. 

I personally liked the Grayson pick, but one ONE guy.... the one guy I probably would have preferred us taking there who went after is Libertore. However... Libertore gives me flashbacks to Richard Stahl, if you remember him. They really hyped him as the next Randy Johnson. 

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The guy blew out his shoulder, whatcha gonna do?   We’ll never know how he would have done if he stayed healthy.   

Well, for starters, you could show up in shape and not 15-20 pounds overweight every year as he allegedly was.  You're right, probably wouldn't made a difference in the end, but he didn't seem to me to be a guy that was putting his best foot forward.  

[Tony-OH]

I've deleted all posts off topic. This isabout the 1st round pick and not anything else. Please stay on subject! Thanks.

[NCRaven]

Signed for $4.3 million per MLBTradeRumers.  Quoted a tweet from Heyman.  Saved $75,100.

[markpolis]

Rodriguez has signed for $4.3mil. $75,000 under slot.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/orioles-agree-to-terms-with-first-rounder-grayson-rodriguez.html

[scarey1999]

A little disappointing they only saved $75k.  Would have liked to think if the FO had any negotiation skills, they could have inked him to 1-20 bonus money, since that’s where KLaw ranked him and he for sure was selected many picks early. Oh well. At least looks like they are not wasting time this year in getting these guys signed like they’ve done in recent years. 

[Can_of_corn]

He signed super early, could this mean he gets meaningful innings in this season?

Hall got 10.1 last year.

[Otter]

2 hours ago, scarey1999 said:

A little disappointing they only saved $75k.  Would have liked to think if the FO had any negotiation skills, they could have inked him to 1-20 bonus money, since that’s where KLaw ranked him and he for sure was selected many picks early. Oh well. At least looks like they are not wasting time this year in getting these guys signed like they’ve done in recent years. 

Agreed, I was hoping for a couple hundred thousand we could use for overslots.  At least negotiate for a while and see if you can get him to sign for less.  Oh well, at least we should be able to sign Grenier for well under slot.  Grenier himself seemed as surprised as anyone he was picked at #37...