HOF 2nd Basemen?

[Migrant Redbird]

An Astros fan visited one of our Cardinals forums recently to ask for "unbiased opinions" as to whether Biggio deserves to be in the HOF. Link

I think that Biggio makes it because of the intersection of two criteria: having a "pretty good" career and staying healthy enough to achieve the 3,000 hit threshold. Without the 3,000 hits, I think that Biggio's selection would have been pretty questionable. With it, he's probably guaranteed to get in. Only 27 players in the history of the game have been both good enough and durable enough to collect 3,000 hits and all of them who have been retired long enough to be eligible are in the HOF -- except for the career leader in hits. We have to drop all the way down to #40 on the career hits list, Harold Baines, who has 2886 hits, before we find anyone on the career hits list who's eligible for the HOF and didn't get selected.

As to whether Biggio belongs in the HOF or not, I'll plead the 5th. There are a lot of players in the HOF with "marginal" credentials and there will be a lot more players who gain entry with numbers that aren't sterling -- though it's probably getting more and more difficult as more and more fans and baseball writers become more statistically sophisticated. It only takes 26% of the voters to keep a player from being selected and the veterans committee isn't bringing in many either, so players will need to buttress their credentials better in the future.

With the possible exception of Pete Rose, it's my opinion that everyone who clearly deserved to be in the HOF is already there, unless they haven't been retired long enough to be eligible. The ones who are fighting to get in, like Andre Dawson, Jim Rice, and Mark McGwire, have some credentials which rank very high and others which aren't really HOF caliber. They need help -- i.e., a friendly sports media.

Here are all the second basemen who are currently in the HOF.

   PLAYER             CAREER      INDUCTEDRod Carew           1967-1985       1991Eddie Collins       1906-1926       1939Bobby Doerr         1937-1951       1986Johnny Evers        1902-1922       1946Nellie Fox          1947-1965       1997Frankie Frisch      1919-1937       1947Charlie Gehringer   1924-1942       1949Frank Grant         1886-1903       2006  Billy Herman        1931-1947       1975Rogers Hornsby      1915-1937       1942Nap Lajoie          1896-1914       1937Tony Lazzeri        1926-1939       1991Bill Mazeroski      1956-1972       2001Bid McPhee          1882-1899       2000Joe Morgan          1963-1984       1990Jackie Robinson     1947-1956       1962Ryne Sandberg       1981-1997       2005Red Schoendienst    1945-1960       1989

Frank Grant was a Negro League selection, the "greatest black player of 19th century".

I ranked the 2nd basemen under discussion with those in the HOF. I don't think that it proves much, but it does illustrate how Kent would be a pretty strong candidate if he had been as adept with the glove as Robbie Alomar. Of course, there's not any particularly good way to judge whether or not a player's glove is spectacular enough to sweep him into the HOF. About all that I can do is cite examples, like Mazeroski and Ozzie Smith.

I did list the number of gold gloves that each player earned, but you'll have to scroll over to the right to see them. A 2nd baseman like Red Schoendienst who was considered pretty good at his position and played until 1960 missed out on getting any gelt because he was past his prime before they began handing them out in 1957.

PLAYER   YEARS   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+ GGHornsby    23  2259  8173 1579 2930 541 169 301 1584 135  64 1038  679 .358 .434 .577 1.011 175 naLajoie     21  2480  9589 1504 3242 657 163  83 1599 380  21  516   85 .338 .380 .467  .847 150 naCollins    25  2826  9949 1821 3315 438 187  47 1300 744 173 1499  286 .333 .424 .429  .853 141 naRobinson   10  1382  4877  947 1518 273  54 137  734 197  30  740  291 .311 .409 .474  .883 132 naMorgan     22  2649  9277 1650 2517 449  96 268 1133 689 162 1865 1015 .271 .392 .427  .819 132  5Carew      19  2469  9315 1424 3053 445 112  92 1015 353 187 1018 1028 .328 .393 .429  .822 131  0Kent       16  2116  7836 1244 2261 519  46 355 1419  94  58  752 1449 .289 .356 .502  .858 125  0Gehringer  19  2323  8860 1774 2839 574 146 184 1427 181  89 1186  372 .320 .404 .480  .884 124 naLazzeri    14  1740  6297  986 1840 334 115 178 1191 148  79  869  864 .292 .380 .467  .847 121 naAlomar     17  2379  9073 1508 2724 504  80 210 1134 474 114 1032 1140 .300 .371 .443  .814 116 10Doerr      14  1865  7093 1094 2042 381 89  223 1247  54  64  809  608 .288 .362 .461  .823 115 naSandberg   16  2164  8385 1318 2386 403  76 282 1061 344 107  761 1260 .285 .344 .452  .796 114  9Biggio     20  2783 10654 1822 3004 658  55 286 1152 413 123 1153 1702 .282 .365 .435  .800 113  4Herman     15  1922  7707 1163 2345 486  82  47  839  67   0  737  428 .304 .367 .407  .774 112 naFrisch     19  2311  9112 1532 2880 466 138 105 1244 419  74  728  272 .316 .369 .432  .801 111 naMcPhee     18  2135  8291 1678 2250 303 188  53 1067 568   0  981  229 .271 .355 .372  .727 106 naEvers      18  1784  6137  919 1659 216  70  12  538 324   8  778  142 .270 .356 .334  .690 106 naFox        19  2367  9232 1279 2663 355 112  35  790  76  80  719  216 .288 .348 .363  .711  94  3Schoend'st 19  2216  8479 1223 2449 427  78  84  773  89  27  606  346 .289 .337 .387  .724  93  0Mazeroski  17  2163  7755  769 2016 294  62 138  853  27  23  447  706 .260 .299 .367  .666  84  8

2nd base, shortstop, catcher, and center field are the positions where defensive excellence has sometimes appeared to factor in much more strongly than at other positions. Just to add a little more context, below are the stats for some other players -- a few of whom are already in the HOF; a few who are likely to get voted in once they've been retired long enough; and a few who probably will never get in although they'll be the grist for many a hot stove league debate.

PLAYER   YEARS   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB   SO   BA   OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+ GGBonds      22  2933  9701 2195 2900 597  77 750 1970 514 141 2510 1517 .299 .445 .608 1.053 183  8J. Jackson 13  1332  4981  873 1772 307 168  54  785 202  61  519  158 .356 .423 .517  .940 170 naPujols      7  1011  3772  795 1246 276  12 266  807  37  22  543  428 .330 .418 .621 1.039 169  1McGwire    16  1874  6187 1167 1626 252   6 583 1414  12   8 1317 1596 .263 .394 .588  .982 163  1Dick Allen 15  1749  6332 1099 1848 320  79 351 1119 133  52  894 1556 .292 .378 .534  .912 156  0Bagwell    15  2150  7797 1517 2314 488  32 449 1529 202  78 1401 1558 .297 .408 .540  .948 150  1Belle      12  1539  5853  974 1726 389  21 381 1239  88  41  683  961 .295 .369 .564  .933 143  0L. Walker  17  1988  6907 1355 2160 471  62 383 1311 230  76  913 1231 .313 .400 .565  .965 140  7Edmonds    15  1753  6100 1135 1755 385  23 357 1092  63  48  898 1552 .288 .380 .534  .914 135  8Palmeiro   20  2831 10472 1663 3020 585  38 569 1835  97  40 1353 1348 .288 .371 .515  .886 132  3Gwynn      20  2440  9288 1383 3141 543  85 135 1138 319 125  790  434 .338 .388 .459  .847 132  5Lynn       17  1969  6925 1063 1960 388  43 306 1111  72  54  857 1116 .283 .360 .484  .844 130  4J. Torre   18  2209  7874  996 2342 344  59 252 1185  23  29  779 1094 .297 .365 .452  .817 129  1Rice       16  2089  8225 1249 2452 373  79 382 1451  58  34  670 1423 .298 .352 .502  .854 128  0Sosa       18  2310  8668 1456 2372 372  44 602 1638 234 107  916 2269 .274 .344 .535  .879 128  0Garciap'ra 12  1269  5118  871 1615 348  52 213  873  91  30  366  504 .316 .364 .529  .893 127  4B Williams 16  2076  7869 1366 2336 449  55 287 1257 147  87 1069 1212 .297 .381 .477  .858 125  4Santo      15  2243  8143 1138 2254 365  67 342 1331  35  41 1108 1343 .277 .362 .464  .826 125  5Puckett    12  1783  7244 1071 2304 414  57 207 1085 134  76  450  965 .318 .360 .477  .837 124  6Molitor    21  2683 10835 1782 3319 605 114 234 1307 504 131 1094 1244 .306 .369 .448  .817 122  0Dawson     21  2627  9927 1373 2774 503 98  438 1591 314 109  589 1509 .279 .323 .482  .805 119  8Rose       24  3562 14053 2165 4256 746 135 160 1314 198 149 1566 1143 .303 .375 .409  .784 118  2T. Simmons 21  2456  8680 1074 2472 483  47 248 1389  21  33  855  694 .285 .348 .437  .785 118  0Kingman    16  1941  6677  901 1575 240  25 442 1210  85  49  608 1816 .236 .302 .478  .780 115  0Yount      20  2856 11008 1632 3142 583 126 251 1406 271 105  966 1350 .285 .342 .430  .772 115  0Ripken     21  3001 11551 1647 3184 603  44 431 1695  36  39 1129 1305 .276 .340 .447  .787 112  2Trammell   20  2293  8288 1231 2365 412 55  185 1003 236 109  850  874 .285 .352 .415  .767 110  4Oz' Smith  19  2573  9396 1257 2460 402  69  28  793 580 148 1072  589 .262 .337 .328  .665  87 13Vizquel    19  2516  9231 1311 2534 407  69  75  840 373 149  916  938 .275 .340 .358  .698  84 11

No, the HOF selections aren't fair, but there's no real way to improve the selection process very much.

[mweb]

Biggio is easily a HOF'er imo. 125 career WARP3 with a 6 year peak of 61.6. So he wasn't just "pretty good" for a long time, he was great during that 6 year stretch. He's stats are also more impressive due to the positions he played.

I believe he's also 2nd all time in getting hit by pitches, so that's another way he contributed that doesn't really get factored in by most. He went a whole season without grounding into a double play as well.

Some other creditials:

-413 steals(61st all time)

-4,441 times on base(20th)

-999 extra base hits(27th)

-1,633 runs created(48th)

-658 doubles(6th)

-7 time all star

-5 time silver slugger

-HOF Standards: 55.9. Avg HOF: 50

-HOF Moniter: 172. Likely HOF: > 100.

-Similiar batters: Yount, Alomar, Morgan, Molitor, Whitaker, Sandberg, Ripken, Brooks Robinson, Charlie Gehringer, Vada Pinson. 7 of top 9 in HOF, Alomar will likely get in, and Whitaker has a good case to be in.

[Leitch]

BP has a pretty good article about this on the day that Biggio hit #3,000 and Thomas hit #500:

Biggio’s argument is in a similar vein. There are 20 second basemen in the Hall of Fame. Biggio places just 11th in that group in adjusted OPS, but he has much stronger markers outside of that figure than the others do. Biggio has played in 2700 games, among the highest in that group, and while he spent a number of years away from the keystone, he spent those catching and playing center field—tributes to his athleticism—as opposed to playing first base and DHing the way Hall of Famers such as Rod Carew and Paul Molitor did. Biggio has 413 career steals at a 77% clip, and he was a good second baseman during his prime. The big four second baseman—Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Nap Lajoie and Eddie Collins—outpace Biggio, but it’s not clear that any other second baseman in history was better than him. One of the five to seven best players at his position in history is a Hall of Famer.

I think the Hall of Fame electorate—by which I mean the subset of veteran newspaper and magazine writers who hoard the honor of the vote—has by and large made good choices over the years. As much as they bollix the annual awards voting by making it about storylines, the BBWAA’s track record in separating Hall of Famers from the other guys is fairly strong. Moreover, we’re part of an era in which information is king; there’s no way for the cold, hard facts that reveal the greatness of these two players to not become the center of the argument. Both will be elected within a few years of becoming eligible.

[Sports Guy]

Biggio is a no brainer, clear HOFer.

Who would you guys prefer to have...Alomar or Biggio?

[Jules]

I dont think there is any question that he belongs in the HOF. J Stark, ESPN, made a great argument for it the other day as well.

Most people would put him in the HOF but no one wants to make the induction speech.

[GrichFan]

Biggio is a no brainer, clear HOFer.

Who would you guys prefer to have...Alomar or Biggio?

Not looking at the stats, but I think in his prime Alomar was better. But his prime was relatively short compared to Biggio. Tough call. I'll take Alomar.

Of course I'll have to look up their stats to see how good/bad my memory is!

I'll stick with Alomar. Pretty equivalent offensive stats. Alomar's career really came to an abrubt end once he went to the Mets. I didn't realize he had that many GG's either. Give me Alomar (minus the spitting!)

[mweb]

Biggio is a no brainer, clear HOFer.

Who would you guys prefer to have...Alomar or Biggio?

It's somewhat close, but I'll go with Alomar. He has a 132.7 WARP3 compared to Biggio's 125 even though Alomar has over 400 fewer games played. Biggio had a little more power and was better at getting hit by pitches, but Alomar was better in basically every other facet of the game.

[Moose Milligan]

Alomar in his prime.

Does Alomar get in the HOF? His career came to a screeching halt...

[Sports Guy]

It's somewhat close, but I'll go with Alomar. He has a 132.7 WARP3 compared to Biggio's 125 even though Alomar has over 400 fewer games played. Biggio had a little more power and was better at getting hit by pitches, but Alomar was better in basically every other facet of the game.

Yea i agree...I take Alomar as well but its not a slam dunk.

[mweb]

Alomar in his prime.

Does Alomar get in the HOF? His career came to a screeching halt...

He certainly should, but the lack of 3,000 hits hurts.

[Migrant Redbird]

Does Alomar get in the HOF? His career came to a screeching halt...

My first call was no, but that was before I looked at the comps more closely. Robbie's numbers are a little better than Biggio's, except that Biggio has the 3 extra seasons and he is finishing a lot stronger than Robbie did. Biggio has 280 more hits (and counting), 314 more runs scored, 154 more doubles, and 76 more home runs. Alomar has 25 more triples and 61 more stolen bases (with 9 fewer times caught stealing) and they're practically equal in RBIs. Robbie undoubtedly benefits from playing all those years in the AL, particularly in some of those packed lineups in Cleveland. I suspect that factoring in the pitchers at bats devalues Biggio's 113 OPS+ a little as well, so Robbie's 116 might represent a greater gap in performance than it appears.

Plus, Robbie has those 10 gold gloves, compared to just 4 for Biggio. Undoubtedly Craig would have garnered more gold if he'd played his entire career at 2nd, so only having the 4 gloves won't hurt him. However, the HOF voters will have to take into account that Robbie has more gold gloves than Sandberg and Mazeroski.

What we don't know is how much the lingering effects of the spit is going to have. My initial cut on Robbie was that he was marginal and the spitting would sink his boat; having compared his stats to the other 2nd basemen, I'm thinking that maybe the 10 gold gloves are enough to turn it around.

The problem is that it only takes 26% of the voters to deny Robbie the chance to get in, and he got a pretty raw deal on the media coverage of that incident. I don't know; I certainly wouldn't want to bet the rent on him getting in.

[Frobby]

Bill James has been saying for years that Biggio is a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame. He's way up there in Win Shares among 2B. That might be obscure, but 3,000 hits isn't.

[Migrant Redbird]

Any thoughts about Jeff Kent's chances? A friend of mine pointed out that Jeff would have the most home runs and 2nd highest slugging percentage of any 2nd baseman in the HOF.

My rejoinder is that middle infielders with less impressive offensive stats have been getting in because they're perceived as being the best in history, or nearly the best, at a very difficult and important defensive position. My impression of Kent is that he's mediocre at best on defense; hence that throws him into the competition with all the outfielders and corner infielders where his 125 OPS+ is not particularly remarkable. There are a number of outfielders, some of them highly regarded for their gloves (e.g., Dick Allen, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker) who have a better OPS+ than Kent and may have difficulty making it into the HOF.

[mweb]

Any thoughts about Jeff Kent's chances? A friend of mine pointed out that Jeff would have the most home runs and 2nd highest slugging percentage of any 2nd baseman in the HOF.

My rejoinder is that middle infielders with less impressive offensive stats have been getting in because they're perceived as being the best in history, or nearly the best, at a very difficult and important defensive position. My impression of Kent is that he's mediocre at best on defense; hence that throws him into the competition with all the outfielders and corner infielders where his 125 OPS+ is not particularly remarkable. There are a number of outfielders, some of them highly regarded for their gloves (e.g., Dick Allen, Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker) who have a better OPS+ than Kent and may have difficulty making it into the HOF.

Just because a guy is mediocre defensively at 2nd, doesn't mean his offense should be compared to guys who play OF or corner IF. His offense should still be compared to other 2nd baseman, as should his defense.

Kent is borderline imo, he has a 107.4 WARP3, an MVP award(that his teammate should have gotten), 5 time all star, 4 time silver slugger, and has great power numbers for his position.

As of right now, I would say no, his offensive numbers are inflated due to the era he played in, and he wasn't that good defensively or on the basepaths, plus I think his best years wouldn't have been so great without Bonds in the lineup. I know many say protection doesn't matter, and for the most part I agree with that, but Bonds was a special case imo.

[mweb]

Rob Neyer on Biggio's HOF resume: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2917659