Grayson Rodriguez 2018

[Il BuonO]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Pretty good, his slider was his best offspeed pitch pre-draft, so to hear that the curve has improved and there still is a distinct slider, is encouraging. Plus 95-97 in August is nice. 

Especially after a season of pitching in high school.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Il BuonO said:

Especially after a season of pitching in high school.

fixed.

[Ruzious]

Sounds like GrayRod perhaps has the kind of upside that DL Hall has?  It'll be interesting to see if the O's take the approach the Braves did with their top HS pitching prospects and aggressively promote them next year if they perform real well.     

[Il BuonO]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

fixed.

Yes, thx.

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I can barely keep up with the Orioles.

I wonder if other organizations are having the same type of medical results with young pitchers, they appear to break easy.?

So, not that this includes all injuries, but here’s a list of the 1,647 pitchers/players who have had Tommy John surgery.     That averages out to 54.9 per team.   The O’s have had only 43, so well below the average.    And the list includes guys who were injured before they ever signed with their first major league team, so Wei-Yin Chen is listed as an Oriole even though he had surgery while pitching in Japan.   There are a few others on the Orioles list who had TJ surgery while in college.    I’m sure every team has some guys like that, so I’ll just leave the Orioles’ list at 43.    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/htmlview

[Luke-OH]

15 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I can barely keep up with the Orioles.

I wonder if other organizations are having the same type of medical results with young pitchers, they appear to break easy.?

Pitching prospects in the Top 101 (baseball prospectus version) going into 2018.

Alex Reyes - Torn Lat(surgery)

Forrest Whitley - Oblique strain/Lat strain 

Brent Honeywell - TJS

Sixto Sanchez - elbow inflammation

Mitch Keller - healthy

Michael Kopech - TJS

Walker Buehler - healthy

Brendan McKay - oblique (minor)

Kolby Allard - healthy

Mackenzie Gore - fingernail (minor)

AJ Puk - TJS

Mike Soroka - shoulder strain and inflammation  

Tristan McKenzie - forearm soreness

Hunter Greene - UCL sprain

Alec Hansen - forearm soreness

Yadier Alvarez - groin strain 

Kyle Wright - healthy

Joey Wentz - missed over a month with undisclosed injury

Adonis Medina - healthy

Dylan Cease - healthy

Cal Quantrill - healthy

Adrian Morejon - hip

Chance Adams - elbow bone spur (surgery)

Michel Baez - low back (minor)

Franklin Perez - lat/shoulder

Justus Sheffield - shoulder stiffness (minor)

Luis Gohara - ankle/shoulder

Ian Anderson - healthy

Jack Flaherty - healthy

Franklyn Kilome - healthy

Dustin May - healthy

Sandy Alcantara - infection (minor)

Seth Romero - TJS

Riley Pint - forearm

Jay Groome - TJS

Corbin Burnes - healthy

Jon Duplantier - biceps tendinitis

Mitch White - missed one month with undisclosed injury

Erick Fedde - shoulder stiffness

Jesus Luzardo - healthy

Dane Dunning - sprained elbow

Beau Burrows - healthy

Adbert Alzolay - lat injury

Shane Baz - healthy

Fernando Romero - healthy

Albert Abreu - appendectomy

Mike Matuella - healthy

About 15% had to have surgery of some variety on their pitching arm/shoulder.

About 64% spent some time on the DL.

About 30% missed significant time with arm/shoulder issues.

 

 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Pitching prospects in the Top 101 (baseball prospectus version) going into 2018.

Alex Reyes - Torn Lat(surgery)

Forrest Whitley - Oblique strain/Lat strain 

Brent Honeywell - TJS

Sixto Sanchez - elbow inflammation

Mitch Keller - healthy

Michael Kopech - TJS

Walker Buehler - healthy

Brendan McKay - oblique (minor)

Kolby Allard - healthy

Mackenzie Gore - fingernail (minor)

AJ Puk - TJS

Mike Soroka - shoulder strain and inflammation  

Tristan McKenzie - forearm soreness

Hunter Greene - UCL sprain

Alec Hansen - forearm soreness

Yadier Alvarez - groin strain 

Kyle Wright - healthy

Joey Wentz - missed over a month with undisclosed injury

Adonis Medina - healthy

Dylan Cease - healthy

Cal Quantrill - healthy

Adrian Morejon - hip

Chance Adams - elbow bone spur (surgery)

Michel Baez - low back (minor)

Franklin Perez - lat/shoulder

Justus Sheffield - shoulder stiffness (minor)

Luis Gohara - ankle/shoulder

Ian Anderson - healthy

Jack Flaherty - healthy

Franklyn Kilome - healthy

Dustin May - healthy

Sandy Alcantara - infection (minor)

Seth Romero - TJS

Riley Pint - forearm

Jay Groome - TJS

Corbin Burnes - healthy

Jon Duplantier - biceps tendinitis

Mitch White - missed one month with undisclosed injury

Erick Fedde - shoulder stiffness

Jesus Luzardo - healthy

Dane Dunning - sprained elbow

Beau Burrows - healthy

Adbert Alzolay - lat injury

Shane Baz - healthy

Fernando Romero - healthy

Albert Abreu - appendectomy

Mike Matuella - healthy

About 15% had to have surgery of some variety on their pitching arm/shoulder.

About 64% spent some time on the DL.

About 30% missed significant time with arm/shoulder issues.

 

 

Thanks, so it sounds pretty clearly, that this is an MLB issue, and not Oriole method issue.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Thanks, so it sounds pretty clearly, that this is an MLB issue, and not Oriole method issue.

Yes.

[Mendoza Line]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Pitching prospects in the Top 101 (baseball prospectus version) going into 2018.

Alex Reyes - Torn Lat(surgery)

Forrest Whitley - Oblique strain/Lat strain 

Brent Honeywell - TJS

Sixto Sanchez - elbow inflammation

Mitch Keller - healthy

Michael Kopech - TJS

Walker Buehler - healthy

Brendan McKay - oblique (minor)

Kolby Allard - healthy

Mackenzie Gore - fingernail (minor)

AJ Puk - TJS

Mike Soroka - shoulder strain and inflammation  

Tristan McKenzie - forearm soreness

Hunter Greene - UCL sprain

Alec Hansen - forearm soreness

Yadier Alvarez - groin strain 

Kyle Wright - healthy

Joey Wentz - missed over a month with undisclosed injury

Adonis Medina - healthy

Dylan Cease - healthy

Cal Quantrill - healthy

Adrian Morejon - hip

Chance Adams - elbow bone spur (surgery)

Michel Baez - low back (minor)

Franklin Perez - lat/shoulder

Justus Sheffield - shoulder stiffness (minor)

Luis Gohara - ankle/shoulder

Ian Anderson - healthy

Jack Flaherty - healthy

Franklyn Kilome - healthy

Dustin May - healthy

Sandy Alcantara - infection (minor)

Seth Romero - TJS

Riley Pint - forearm

Jay Groome - TJS

Corbin Burnes - healthy

Jon Duplantier - biceps tendinitis

Mitch White - missed one month with undisclosed injury

Erick Fedde - shoulder stiffness

Jesus Luzardo - healthy

Dane Dunning - sprained elbow

Beau Burrows - healthy

Adbert Alzolay - lat injury

Shane Baz - healthy

Fernando Romero - healthy

Albert Abreu - appendectomy

Mike Matuella - healthy

About 15% had to have surgery of some variety on their pitching arm/shoulder.

About 64% spent some time on the DL.

About 30% missed significant time with arm/shoulder issues.

 

 

It would be curious to look at this historically. Obviously medical evaluations have changed, but I'm willing to wager that there has been  an increase rate of arm injuries over the last 20 years relative to prior. My guess is that this would correlate to increased pitching velocity. I would argue the human body is not designed to throw 95mph+ for a sustained period without injury.

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, Mendoza Line said:

It would be curious to look at this historically. Obviously medical evaluations have changed, but I'm willing to wager that there has been  an increase rate of arm injuries over the last 20 years relative to prior. My guess is that this would correlate to increased pitching velocity. I would argue the human body is not designed to throw 95mph+ for a sustained period without injury.

More than half the TJ surgeries in pro baseball have occurred since 2010.

[Mendoza Line]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

More than half the TJ surgeries in pro baseball have occurred since 2010.

That's a pretty damning statistic.

Barring some huge regenerative medicine breakthroughs, is the path of the future to do the Rays' model and have hard throwing for only a few innings? Or go back to teaching command over velocity? Or just keep the status quo and continue to deal with the mounting arm issues?

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Mendoza Line said:

That's a pretty damning statistic.

Barring some huge regenerative medicine breakthroughs, is the path of the future to do the Rays' model and have hard throwing for only a few innings? Or go back to teaching command over velocity? Or just keep the status quo and continue to deal with the mounting arm issues?

Season	FBv
2002	89
2003	89.4
2004	90.1
2005	90.1
2006	90.5
2007	90.3
2008	90.7
2009	91.2
2010	91.2
2011	91.5
2012	91.6
2013	91.7
2014	91.8
2015	92.1
2016	92.3
2017	92.8
2018	92.8

 

If the game is moving away from velocity, it sure hasn't started yet. This is average FB velocity league wide over the past 10+ seasons. 

[Frobby]

I believe the correlation between the frequency of TJ surgery and the increase in fastball velocity falls in the category of “for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.”

[Mendoza Line]

5 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Season	FBv
2002	89
2003	89.4
2004	90.1
2005	90.1
2006	90.5
2007	90.3
2008	90.7
2009	91.2
2010	91.2
2011	91.5
2012	91.6
2013	91.7
2014	91.8
2015	92.1
2016	92.3
2017	92.8
2018	92.8

 

If the game is moving away from velocity, it sure hasn't started yet. This is average FB velocity league wide over the past 10+ seasons. 

This is all very interesting stuff. I find it intriguing that where the NFL has drastically been trying to improve the safety of its sport, baseball has arguably been doing the opposite by promoting throwing as hard as you can, for as long as you can effectively.

Could guys like Hunter Harvey, whom had great stuff, but now might not pitch in a major league game have benefited on a lower arm stress regime? Or would pitching at a lower velocity rendered him ineffective against major league hitters anyway?

I'm a pretty casual fan so I defer to many people on this board, like yourself, but I think it's an curious debate.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Mendoza Line said:

This is all very interesting stuff. I find it intriguing that where the NFL has drastically been trying to improve the safety of its sport, baseball has arguably been doing the opposite by promoting throwing as hard as you can, for as long as you can effectively.

Could guys like Hunter Harvey, whom had great stuff, but now might not pitch in a major league game have benefited on a lower arm stress regime? Or would pitching at a lower velocity rendered him ineffective against major league hitters anyway?

I'm a pretty casual fan so I defer to many people on this board, like yourself, but I think it's an curious debate.

Baseball has introduced a concussion protocol and concussion DL.

Casual fans don't feel the same way about torn ligaments that they do life altering head trauma.

I think baseball's emphasis on velocity would be more closely compared to the NFL's emphasis on body mass for linemen.  No one is suggesting that offensive lineman's weight be limited to say 300 pounds.