Give me a reason to be excited about the performance of any of our short-season guys

[BoysofArbutus]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

Thanks for your two cents. You can have it back if you want and give it to Cal for his Buy The Orioles Fund.

[mikezpen]

That Chris Smith draft is looking better all the time.

[windsor]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

Wow. Just wow. A round of applause everyone, one of the finest displays of kneejerking I've had the privelege of seeing. Take a bow, son.

[DennisTheOsFan]

I'm too lazy to check, but what are the other draft picks (like Posey, Smoak, Alonso, Wallace, both Beckhams, etc.) doing?

[WietersCorner]

Wow. Just wow. A round of applause everyone, one of the finest displays of kneejerking I've had the privelege of seeing. Take a bow, son.

Yeah that comment was probably the funniest thing I've read on the OH, and thats saying something. Thanks for the good laugh Mike!

[Tony-OH]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

Mike loves the game, "Jump to conclusions."

:rofl::rofl:

[Moose Milligan]

Tony, what happened to Ricardo? I know you were high on him last year and I remember his stats from last year were pretty impressive as well.

What's going on with him?

[Frobby]

I hope everyone understood the intent and message of the title of this thread and my opening post. I did not mean to suggest, at all, that the stats these players have generated in 50-80 AB or 15-25 IP demosntrate that any player is overrated or won't make it. I'm simply pointing out that there aren't many guys who have started off so auspiciously that you stand up and say, wow! Usually there are a few of these, including some of the high picks. Examples: Fiorentino, Reimold, Rowell, Snyder, Erbe, Haehnel. Examples of some guys who didn't light the world on fire right away: Markakis, Beato, Britton. I think these examples illustrate that the degree of early success doesn't necessarily correlate with long-term success. It just makes it more fun to follow the players when they get off to a really hot start.

[Big Mac]

Elvin Polanco is a guy who has been mentioned in this thread.

In the first game of Bluefield's doubleheader today, he is already 3-4 with a HR, and a double.

He's hitting .370 and has 5 HR already, it's time to see what he can do in A-ball.

[Three Run Homer]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

Hoes at least knows the strike zone. For all we know he's hitting a lot of at 'em balls. That kind of luck doesn't even out over a small sample.

A bad K/BB ratio, however, is pretty indicative even in small samples. Avery's is terrible.

Can anyone find an example of a player who was awful in the Gulf Coast League at age 18 but wound up making it? It might make some of us feel a little better.

[AVencill]

Hoes at least knows the strike zone. For all we know he's hitting a lot of at 'em balls. That kind of luck doesn't even out over a small sample.

A bad K/BB ratio, however, is pretty indicative even in small samples. Avery's is terrible.

Can anyone find an example of a player who was awful in the Gulf Coast League at age 18 but wound up making it? It might make some of us feel a little better.

Howie Clark hit .239 as an 18 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1992.

Jessie Garcia hit .237 as a 19 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1993.

Ivanon Coffie hit .218 as a 19 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1996.

Napolean Calzado hit .206 as an 18 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1998.

Tim Raines hit .198 as an 18 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1998.

Those are several examples of guys that I dug up who did struggle at first, but wound up playing the majors at some point in their careers.

[Frobby]

Howie Clark hit .239 as an 18 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1992.

Jessie Garcia hit .237 as a 19 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1993.

Ivanon Coffie hit .218 as a 19 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1996.

Napolean Calzado hit .206 as an 18 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1998.

Tim Raines hit .198 as an 18 year old with the Gulf Coast O's in 1998.

Those are several examples of guys that I dug up who did struggle at first, but wound up playing the majors at some point in their careers.

That's not exactly a comforting list. I realize that making it to the majors is a big accomplishment, but what we're after is players who will have long-term success in the majors, not guys who can fill in for 2 weeks when someone is on the DL.

[Stotle]

Hoes at least knows the strike zone. For all we know he's hitting a lot of at 'em balls. That kind of luck doesn't even out over a small sample.

A bad K/BB ratio, however, is pretty indicative even in small samples. Avery's is terrible.

Can anyone find an example of a player who was awful in the Gulf Coast League at age 18 but wound up making it? It might make some of us feel a little better.

Avery's swing mechanics are pretty raw and will require an overhaul -- I'm reserving judgement until 2010.

Hudson, however, will need to progress more quickly. There should be steep improvement over this season and next, given his athleticism and body control. I think he has the tools to be a solid lead-off hitter, but it will all depend on how much he can get out of full-time instruction and focus on baseball.

Hoes is pretty clean, and has a much more refined swing than Avery or Hudson. I'd imagine he'll move more quickly than Avery -- hopefully one level each year.

[Duke2010]

Mikezpen, look I'm sorry to say this but you should probably stop posting about any draft related topics. I swear its almost like you want these guys to fail or get hurt just so you can say "look i told you so, Matusz was the worst pick ever and Hoes and Avery are the two most awful players to ever pick up a baseball bat." Dude, you just need to chill because the path you're choosing on this is down right depressing.

Mike, did you know that when Frobby posted this thread, that Hoes and Avery had a whopping 26 combined games? On the hangout we seem to discuss stats and how they are misleading if they are small sample sizes, and this would constitute a small sample size. Just give these guys a chance because you can't change the fact that they are Orioles now, so either support them or find a new team, sport, hobby, or whatever.

Also, dont fall in love with whats going on now, because its obvious that you cant get over their slows starts so you're already projecting them as the biggest flameouts of all time. Scouts and guys like Jordan look at guys and can project them out to 3, 4, or 5 years in the future. That's why they're good at their jobs and that's why we are the ones talking on a message board.

[AVencill]

That's not exactly a comforting list. I realize that making it to the majors is a big accomplishment, but what we're after is players who will have long-term success in the majors, not guys who can fill in for 2 weeks when someone is on the DL.

Yeah, I didn't get that fuzzy feeling inside after I put that list together. Hopefully Avery and Hoes can buck the trend and start getting their stuff together and avoid becoming the next Ivanon Coffie. Avery is showing his speed on the basepaths with six steals in seven attempts in 15 games.

I'm waiting to the end of the season to really access these two. I realize both of them were drafted high and are only 18, but I'm hoping one of them will begin to break out in the next few weeks.

As far as young guys making a name for themselves, Polanco is obviously the most popular name that I've seen. Aside from him, I think Bluefield's Nicholas Ray (22, 48th round pick from 2007) is certainly turning a few heads in the Appy League so far. As the leadoff man, Ray is hitting .306 following the first game of tonight's doubleheader and has eight walks to six strikeouts in his last 10 games.