How long does your blank check for Elias last?

[maybenxtyr]

I don't know enough to know if this situation is on Elias. If he's doing what ownership directs him to do I guess the blank check can last indefinitely. Not being able to release Davis indicated that he's just here to build his resume. 

[MurphDogg]

10 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

 Not being able to release Davis indicated that he's just here to build his resume. 

It would be crazy to release Davis unless they know for an absolute certainty that 162 games will be played this year.

[maybenxtyr]

1 minute ago, MurphDogg said:

It would be crazy to release Davis unless they know for an absolute certainty that 162 games will be played this year.

Well, that can be said today but it doesn't explain from his hiring up until the start of last season. I don't blame him...I think it comes from above him. I think he's done well working within whatever parameters he has.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, maybenxtyr said:

Well, that can be said today but it doesn't explain from his hiring up until the start of last season. I don't blame him...I think it comes from above him. I think he's done well working within whatever parameters he has.

I tend to agree with this. There are a few scenarios that could play out for Elias and Sig.

1. O's remain owned by Angelos, penny pinching is the way of the future - he builds a nice foundation here but leaves when free to and another owner essentially asks him to do the same but also gives him resources. Thinking Philly/San Fran make sense from a market/spending perspective.

2. O's remain owned by Angelos, short term penny pinching linked to Covid - this would allow Elias to stay and be somewhat more financially aggressive likely starting in 2021/2022. It still leaves him in a less than perfect (e.g., not Red Sox/Dodgers) scenario. I could see him deciding to go to a bigger market team when he has that option.

3. O's are sold - everything's on the table at that point. New owner might embrace him and ask him to spend. New owner might want his own guy. Who knows?

I really think Elias will be in demand when he's available. I hope whoever owns the O's don't let it get there, but I'd wager they do.

[Sports Guy]

Elias has the best job in baseball.  He makes great money and has zero expectations to win.  
 

Why would he leave?  He is able to do a lot of what he likes with trades, scouting, international signings, etc....and he can do it while ownership is ok with a 60 win team.  

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Well, that can be said today but it doesn't explain from his hiring up until the start of last season. I don't blame him...I think it comes from above him. I think he's done well working within whatever parameters he has.

Well, I think it made sense enough to give Davis one season and see if the new regime could fix him.   It probably also made sense to bring him back for the following spring training to see if anything had changed.   I would have cut bait at the end of last spring, but the end of spring training never came and then the shortening of the season and possibility of further shortened seasons changed the calculus.    We’ll never know if the O’s would have cut bait if last season had proceeded as normal.  

[LookinUp]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias has the best job in baseball.  He makes great money and has zero expectations to win.  
 

Why would he leave?  He is able to do a lot of what he likes with trades, scouting, international signings, etc....and he can do it while ownership is ok with a 60 win team.  

Why would he leave? Because he's capable like Andrew Friedman and just isn't given the tools to build the house. He's like a carpenter without a nail gun or power saws. 

If I were him, I'd be building this foundation as strong as possible, just like he apparently is, and then point to that when talking to rich owners and say I can do the same + with real ownership support. His next contract could be huge for GMs.

I know I'm being way premature here, but I can totally see this scenario playing out for the O's.

[Can_of_corn]

46 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

If you believe, like me, that he's created a much stronger amateur player acquisition and development program then you have to like what he's done. I also think the data will put all of our guys, major and minor leagues, into a better position to succeed. 

I'm assuming that given whatever resources he'd want, eventually he'd be spending on free agents and active in the trade market. I'm also assuming that's not in the cards right now, which makes what he's doing on the minor league side even more important. 

I am assuming. I don't know what the facts are. I just think he's the most capable talent evaluator and developer I've seen in Baltimore during my life. His leash is VERY long for me.

A promotion?  The farm rankings aren't that impressive and are dominated by first round picks.  He isn't a proven winners in trades or signing free agents.  He hasn't proven he can field a competitive team.

I'm fine with what he's done for the most part but he doesn't rate a promotion.

[LookinUp]

Just to add...

At some point there will be an inflection point, or there won't. SG and others want it now. Understood. I'd argue that even with some spending now we're still 1-2 years away, so I understand (in theory) waiting for the strategy to change.

Either way, at some point it must change (e.g., spending money to upgrade spots). On that we all agree. When that happens, I'll believe that Elias has some desire to stay here, but even then it will depend on the degree to which the change happens.

I see him as a star in the industry. That means he'll be in high demand elsewhere when he's available. He'll take that unless ownership commits to him and the team financially.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A promotion?  The farm rankings aren't that impressive and are dominated by first round picks.  He isn't a proven winners in trades or signing free agents.  He hasn't proven he can field a competitive team.

I'm fine with what he's done for the most part but he doesn't rate a promotion.

I'm drawing conclusions based on what I'm seeing and reading. You're waiting for the dinner to be served. That's fair. I think he's doing a very good job getting young talent through the international and rule iv draft. If it all goes Philadelphia on us, you'll be right. I just don't see that happening.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes I want to eat a meal before promoting the Sous to head Chef.

I've only seen his broth I don't even know if he can season properly.

[Sports Guy]

I think Elias is doing a very good job but I also feel there are opportunities Out there that he isn’t taking advantage of.

He could be doing more even under the constraints of ownership.

 

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A promotion?  The farm rankings aren't that impressive and are dominated by first round picks.  He isn't a proven winners in trades or signing free agents.  He hasn't proven he can field a competitive team.

I'm fine with what he's done for the most part but he doesn't rate a promotion.

I’m with you.  He will have to win here before he either gets a promotion or becomes a big target for other teams.  I like most of what he’s done to date but eventually it will need to yield results.    Jeez, it’s been one full season and one truncated one.   Not a lot on which to judge yet.  

[MCO'sFan]

I think the jury is still out on him. Not having a minor league season last year prevented us from seeing the full scope of the PD departmental changes that he and Sig have implemented. I have been very encouraged with what they have done so far but, this will be a critical year for me. I think that has been the big difference for me. I now have some belief that if we acquire good talent the PD department will be able to develop it. I thought that DD did a decent job in acquiring talent given the restrictions in the International market but the PD stunk!!! 

[Aristotelian]

I've been very impressed with Elias. He started with bringing in good people (Sig) and changing the culture (no "Warehouse Game of Thrones" articles lately, he seems to be in control). 

It's too early to say but it appears he has drafted well. At least, none of the big picks have bombed out. Overall the program rankings have improved from bottom of the barrel to above average.

Also improved the talent through small trades without much to work with. I would perhaps have liked to get a little more back for Bundy but I can see we don't have much leverage so we kind of have to take what we can get. 

He's also played the Rule 5 and waiver pools to get what he can there. Overall, I am impressed and hope he stays a long time so he can see the rewards from what we build up.