Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[TouchemAll]

9 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I wonder how long Buck will keep saying Davis is "struggling" and batting him 4th or 5th regularly.  The All-Star break?  September?  2019?  2020?  Its apparent to an untrained eye that Davis can no longer hit a good fastball.  

Knowing Buck all damn season...

[Burg]

2 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Too much money is owed for Angelos to cut him. 

Why?  It's a sunk cost.  You have to pay it anyway.  You might as well have someone on the field who can actually play the game.

[atomic]

56 minutes ago, vab said:

I don't know what the big deal is with releasing Davis. He'll be replaced by Mancini who is making, what $400-500 K? The Davis money is already spent so for the cost of Mancini's salary they can upgrade two spots (1B offensively and LF defensively) as well as getting a look at one of the OF prospects . Seems like a no-brainer.

Seems like a no-brainer when its not your 100 million dollars that is owed to Davis.  Could you imagine Buck going into Angelos' office.  You know when I recommended to you to sign Davis to 160 million dollar 7 year contract? Well 2 years into the contract I realized that was bad advice and I think you should release Davis.  

Buck the guy who never had anything nice to say about Kim and who was ready to release him a week into Spring training bats Davis 4th and blames us for criticizing Davis. 

[FanSince88]

9 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I wonder how long Buck will keep saying Davis is "struggling" and batting him 4th or 5th regularly.  The All-Star break?  September?  2019?  2020?  Its apparent to an untrained eye that Davis can no longer hit a good fastball.  

This goes way, way beyond "some struggles."  If CD was OPSing .650, he'd be having "some struggles."  His OPS is nearly 200 points below .650.  It's not just "struggles," it's being completely unfit to play in the major leagues.  I hate saying this but it's the gosh darn truth.  

[FanSince88]

1 hour ago, Bradysburns said:

That's a really interesting point on Mancini. But if you think about it, Davis can't control what's happening. His inability to hit is not a "conscious decision." He's obviously trying (I mean, he's flailing that wooden stick around on occasion, in a kind of elliptical pattern).

However, signing him to this absolutely ridiculous contract WAS a conscious decision, and one of the worst in the history of this front office. It's forcing several peoples' hands, as FanSince88 alludes to. And the results are showing on the field. 

Therefore, I place at least 80% of the responsibility on whoever masterminded this contract... be that Brady, PA or DD. 

I completely agree that Davis is probably trying hard.  This isn't personal, it's just the plain facts.  Baseball is hard, we all understand that.  But to be as bad as Chris Davis is playing right now is something we've never seen before from a first baseman.  

[vab]

39 minutes ago, atomic said:

Seems like a no-brainer when its not your 100 million dollars that is owed to Davis.  Could you imagine Buck going into Angelos' office.  You know when I recommended to you to sign Davis to 160 million dollar 7 year contract? Well 2 years into the contract I realized that was bad advice and I think you should release Davis.  

Buck the guy who never had anything nice to say about Kim and who was ready to release him a week into Spring training bats Davis 4th and blames us for criticizing Davis. 

It's not my 100 million but it's not Buck's either so, if he was behind the re-signing, yes he should go into Angelos office and say I was wrong and you should release Davis. It's punishing the whole team having a black hole in the middle of the lineup or anywhere in the lineup for that matter. Buck putting Davis's name in the lineup every day has got to be a huge divisive issue on this club that goes beyond just the lack of production from his spot.

[atomic]

1 minute ago, vab said:

It's not my 100 million but it's not Buck's either so, if he was behind the re-signing, yes he should go into Angelos office and say I was wrong and you should release Davis. It's punishing the whole team having a black hole in the middle of the lineup or anywhere in the lineup for that matter. Buck putting Davis's name in the lineup every day has got to be a huge divisive issue on this club that goes beyond just the lack of production from his spot.

You ever hear of the cognitive dissonance theory?  If Buck recommended signing Davis and he is the worst player in all of sports right now that makes Buck an idiot.  Buck doesn't want to think of himself as an idiot.  So he convinces himself Davis is just in a slump that he will break out if he plays enough.  

Anyway no one releases a player with Davis type contract and the Orioles won't release a guy they owe 2 million to. Just get used to Davis being here. 

[pastorfan]

54 minutes ago, Burg said:

Why?  It's a sunk cost.  You have to pay it anyway.  You might as well have someone on the field who can actually play the game.

Sooner or later they will have to do it for the "morale" of the whole team. But you probably have to play him to ever hope to get a buy out. Now why Buck continues to insist on him being in the heart of the lineup, I have no idea. IF you asked Buck about last night he would probably say something like, "Look at what Manny did, that proves that I made the right move with Davis hitting behind him." 

[foxfield]

5 hours ago, atomic said:

The problem with beating that record is that if you play as badly as Davis has you either get released or benched.  The reason Davis has a chance is instead of releasing or benching Davis,  Buck bats him clean up and claims fans are just picking on Davis for his slump. 

Well, that's not what he said, really. Buck bat's him and asks who else should be better given his choices.  Its a valid point, even though the correct answer is:  Well...anyone!

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Adam Dunn in 2011 hit .159 in 415 at-bats.  I heard ESPN's podcast guys report that year he was benched late to miss having enough at-bats to qualify and "win" the worst batting average ever.

We will see the same here and it will be the reason it happens when it does.  Unless they can get Miggy to deliver some "B-12"....Just kidding...

3 hours ago, pastorfan said:

I agree. But Christ needs to have the worst season in history in order to encourage him to take a buy out. BUT Buck does not need to bat him 4th.  

The lord never puts more on you than you can handle.  I think Christ can take having the worst season in history after dying for all of mankind.

 

But seriously...please stop advancing the BUYOUT.  Chris Davis contract cannot be bought out.  Even if he took a Christ like aversion to money, the Union would never allow it.  He is going to get his money no matter what you and I want and no matter how poorly he plays from today forward.

1 hour ago, Tx Oriole said:

Too much money is owed for Angelos to cut him. 

True, but at some point the weight will be unbearable for both player and team.  If there is no improvement that time will come very soon after the end of this season.

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Seems like a no-brainer when its not your 100 million dollars that is owed to Davis.  Could you imagine Buck going into Angelos' office.  You know when I recommended to you to sign Davis to 160 million dollar 7 year contract? Well 2 years into the contract I realized that was bad advice and I think you should release Davis.  

Buck the guy who never had anything nice to say about Kim and who was ready to release him a week into Spring training bats Davis 4th and blames us for criticizing Davis. 

You are kind of making my point from above...Buck believed he had better options than Kim and refused to use him.  Buck has 14 DH 1B types but is pretty justified saying that if not Chris, who?  At least based on past performance.  This won't last forever, and you are also splitting hairs over another point.....

DD wanted Kim.....Buck did not.

Buck wanted Davis....DD did not.

[Moose Milligan]

5 hours ago, Barnaby Graves said:

Because... because you think it's too high?

Yeah.  I mean, granted a 1/4 night will prop that batting average up a little bit but he's like 3 for his last 34 or something ridiculous.  .153 is too high for him.

[osfan83]

They need to try and fix Davis....my suggestion is good old incrementalism. Davis needs his confidence back, and doing that against the best pitchers in the world is not easy. Send Chris down to Bowie for a month, let him regain his confidence. If he does well, then move him to Norfolk. 

He needs to feel like he can hit again. Find a level where he can hit....let him get comfortable, then challenge him at a higher level. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Burg said:

Why?  It's a sunk cost.  You have to pay it anyway.  You might as well have someone on the field who can actually play the game.

If Apple launches a product and it fails, they don't keep producing more units because they invested $100M in research and development.  Same thing applies to Davis, eat your losses and move on.  Davis is blocking younger players that could be gaining valuable experience at the MLB level.  

Even if the younger players aren't ready, Trumbo or Mancini can play 1B.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, osfan83 said:

 

He needs to feel like he can hit again. Find a level where he can hit....let him get comfortable, then challenge him at a higher level. 

I think Davis is a little past the cutoff age for tee ball. 

[Three Run Homer]

By one measure, Chris Davis is one bad game away from having the worst offensive season ever by a first baseman.  

Davis currently has 198 PA and an OPS+ of 37 according to BB-Ref.  The only player since 1901 with at least 50 percent of his games at 1B, at least that many PA and a lower OPS+ is John Black of the 1911 Browns, who had 201 PA and slashed .151/.202/.172, for an OPS+ of 7.   If Chris has an 0-4 tonight, he'll pass Black's PA and stand alone at the top (bottom?) of the heap.  

The current record for lowest OPS+ for a first baseman with 250 or more PA is George Scott, who had 387 PA in 1968 for the Red Sox and slashed .171/.236/.237, for an OPS+ of 40.  Scott went on to have several fine seasons with the Brewers.  

The "Season Finder" tool in BB-Ref is great for these kinds of exercises, by the way.  I learned how to use it last season when tracking Chris Tillman's historical ineptitude.

[Carllamy]

What makes the season bad isn't just the stats, although they kind of speak for themselves.

What makes it really bad is his apparent lack of effort in trying to turn things around.

Clearly, I don't know what he's doing behind the scenes. But I do know just from being human, and being on teams, and working with other people, and working with paying clients, that you have to show people that you're trying. It isn't enough to silently anguish over your position. Everyone does that. But, when you're on the bottom, you have to show you're trying to improve: work late, talk with others about how you can turn things around, etc. If you don't it effects everyone around you. Teammates struggle psychologically with having to work with an anchor that doesn't seem to care enough to change. Managers struggle to work around your deficiencies and putting you in a corner somewhere where your lack of effort hurts the least. Clients don't want to work with you.

Three or four off-season phone calls with the pitching coach about a change in your philosophy of hitting by trying to swing earlier and not take as many pitches, doesn't hack it.

It took Jim Palmer publicly calling him out and then BAM, within a week 2 visible changes: we saw him change how he holds the bat, and try wearing a face guard at batting practice. Where was that 4, 5 weeks ago?

Doing poorly is bad. Doing poorly and showing nothing to the folks around you that you are trying tangible things to improve makes it worse.

Sure he's probably taking extra BP and the teammates see that. But Felix Pie changed his entire batting stance and approach to hitting in order to try to turn things around. Extra BP isn't going to cut it.

His stats are bad. His visible and open lack of effort to change things to help support the psyche of the team, the fans and management, make it worse.

And please don't tell me they're professionals and don't need that. Everyone I've ever worked with was paid to do their job. No one was a volunteer. And still, there were lazy malcontents that dragged down the office. It happens even in paid professional environments. I'm not saying Chris Davis is lazy. I have no way of knowing that. I'm saying his apparent lack of urgency until humiliated in public makes a bad situation worse.